Member Info for Globex

"But everybody commenting here is sooooo knowledgable, parading their wisdom lol."

That's a bit of a snide statement when I don't see you offering up anything in the way of knowledge yourself. All you've tried is a low effort ramp on Argo, with absolutely no substance. At least try to post something coherent.

By the way on this same board with posters you're trying to criticise has at various times tipped Mara and Clsk when they were less than $4, Microstrategy sub $200, Corz before it 10 bagged, the list goes on, but good luck with Argo anyway lol.

Equally something about being dead in the water? I'll get my coat

Maybe the swimming pool could finally come in handy here? (sorry for the circa 2021 joke)

Indeed Galaxy could well decide they'd like their site back to put in their own next gen miners. If anything the btc jump increases that likelihood with sites across North America that have access to decent power in high demand.

In that realistic scenario it begs the question what is Argo's plan B? Canada sites are only 20MW total. So they would need to find a new site and lug over the machines, what happen to debt repayments during the downtime? Those miners will also then be 4 years old, an ice age in mining terms.

Galaxy played a blinder on this deal, foreseeing the value in the site while recognising machines as dead weight.

Netease recent buy could also be signal tide turning here, being Nasdaq listed and valued at $69bn. They've been pretty acquisitive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NetEase

Staff not being paid on time again is a shambles, management should feel ashamed. Feel for those on tight budgets who depend on monthly pay for essentials or mortgage payment. Talent will just walk at this rate.

Might be of interest that Derwent results this week pointed to a -10%+ downgrade in their portfolio valuation over the course of the year. They're prime largely central London, and that reduction despite widely accepted flight to quality in office space market. Meanwhile Regional Reit with their ageing provincial stock are asking shareholders to believe their valuation has not dropped as much. Something amiss here.

It has got a bit silly the share printing with Mara and co, how now we're needing a $64k breakout just to break this downtrend again. That $30 resistance on Mara has been that sticky, with hindsight I now believe like that's where they've really cranked up the ATM taps.

After hitting $30 in late Dec, then the double top 2 weeks ago, on third attempt this week all signals say it should have finally broken through and held, to correspond with btc surge. Volume was insane, perfect scene set. ATMs killing this game for shareholders.

At this rate the only positive we can really say about Argo in Feb is the leap year. No doubt they'll put the extra day down to their operational excellence.

On that point imo he might have been a bit too bullish on the earnings call. I don't see difficulty reducing greatly from older machines switching off, due to offset from expansion elsewhere in the network (new machines being added all day every day). Historically difficulty has never sustained a drop for long.

Where it will help the competitiveness of surviving miners is less the network, more the equity imo. If fewer mining companies remain but money continues to flow into this space at same rate, rather than being spread thinly across various no hopers, funds will naturally gravitate towards the top tier players.

Rationally the likes of S19j miners that Argo run should really be turned off now, let alone after the halving. They are just setting money on fire. The only reason they are being kept alive is to maintain the facade for them to be able to print more shares to keep the lights on a bit longer.

Damn softball qus might be a red flag then, especially if it's a reminder of Peter Wall! I momentarily thought of him listening to that call, and how much he truly was a blagger when you see what's required to be a leading mining today.

Another Argo callback was that mention S19j Pros really starting to lag now. XPs using 30% less power, now the S21 another step forward, the arms race is as relentless as ever.

I'd echo recommendation to listen to Mara earnings call. Fred really came out swinging about stark reality facing smaller miners.

Clsk and Riot have laid the gauntlet down when it comes to (near) profitability, this is definitely Mara's achilles heal, despite far more EH. This new strategy towards ownership of more of their sites rather than third parties should improve margins. The thing is we're well into the cycle now that's a bit of a long game, acquisitions should at least speed things up.

Questions were a bit softball, one idiot asking what proportion of eth they mine, presumably not having clocked that eth hasn't been mineable for years. What a waste of a question. Even JP Morgan guy I thought would give Fred a grilling seemed a bit in awe. If I had chance I'd have asked: for the love of Gold could you please turn off that ATM.

There's also a covenant for minimum cash "no less than the greater of i) trailing one quarter of cash burn or ii) US$2.5m". The revenue targets are that outlandish it has appearance of a pre-planned debt-for-equity stitch up.

These ETFs are adding a whole new dimension to this bull run. I think they explain why we are so close to all time high this side of the halving, unlike 2016 or 2020 as if we're now on an accelerated schedule. That positive feedback loop of the ETFs buying btc to satisfy demand, which itself puts up the price of btc, which leads to more people getting fomo to buy the ETFs is dynamite. Of course it works in the other direction too but let's not go there. Epic to see this $60k breach.

Could be read across from Icon today.

I'm not going to go and deramp Icon on their board, people can have their fun with it, but fwiw when looking for cash shells found it too expensive and too dilutive imo. We are at the bottom end of the market here so this is not financial advice, but context:

Icon debt £3.5m + £0.6m market cap (increasing as they routinely print shares) puts it on an enterprise value of £4.1m+.

Dke debt £900k (reduction reported 30th Jan) + £0.18m market cap = ev £1.1m.

On the nutrition side I know it's been discussed already today but benchmark peers don't get much better than Glanbia. The mid-range of their EPS growth outlook for this year puts them on an EV/EBITDA multiple of a tad over 11.

It is very distasteful the payroll problems, to invest here you really have to hold your nose at the idea they have messed employees around to this extent. A cash injection required pronto, then ideally management to be gutted, new top team with proper financial controls in place, to ensure no more underbidding for loss making contracts.

Those results should be required reading at THG HQ. Optimum Nutrition growing 17% year or year, buckets of free cash flow which they rightly class as a KPI, excellent margins despite overall topline softness (helps when you don't have a parasitic subsidiary), EPS up 20%, and how novel - a material profit for the year AFTER costs, not just positive EBITDA in one particular quarter. Market of course loves it.

I do like mstr, btc exposure minus the operational risks of miners, and as closest thing to a proper btc etf we're deemed to be allowed here.

Corz finally springing back to life after lagging so much since relist. Keenly priced here imo, almost laughably so compared to some peers for 24EH/s+. Chapter 11 wiped most of debt slate clean, but judging by relative underperformance lately might take a while for market to forgive that whole episode. I forgive it, adding more here, not financial advice.

Still knee deep in Mara ofc, 🤞 tomorrow we get holy trinity of btc up, nasdaq up and no earnings missteps (or even ahead of expectations, you never know!) GLA