RE: What are the possibilities here6 Sep 2020 14:03
Josh, very much agree with your thinking. I was speculating this morning. Imagine a JV or licensing deal in the next few weeks for COVID, pre-authorisation, which I think is much more likely than a buyout given the uncertainty of how COVID will progress. I'd expect it to be global, rather than regional, again due to the unpredictability of infections by region, so that any major pharma can de-risk any investment. Then the final effect of the unpredictability, I'd expect relatively small up front payments, with a potentially generous revenue share arrangement.
Numbers I plucked from the air, and you can certainly pick them apart I'm sure - say £0.5bn on agreement, £0.5bn on authorisation, 20% revenue share.
On agreement push SP to I'd guess at least £5 (concrete £0.5bn plus possibility of £05.bn plus significant revenue).
On authorisation push SP to north of £15 (concrete total £1bn plus virtually guaranteed significant revenue)
Then I guess you enter into a new ballpark of an organisation with little costs and a very healthy income stream, albeit reducing over time. Could easily see it upward of £20, and who knows how much higher.
This all independent of COPD.
Just a line of thought, I can't back up my assumptions on revenue share, etc.