Member Info for glenonholiday

Would be interested in people's views on my thinking on timings, and alternatives if you have them. My thoughts are:

Best / earliest case:
First patient dosed - Monday, 21st December
10 patients dosed per day on average (ignoring ramp up for simplicity)
Final patient dosed - 19th February
28 days unblinding - 19th March
Accelerated analysis outputs - 2nd April

My own observations on the above:
Feels more likely dosing will begin end of December and there will be a ramp up period as countries get online.
Number of patients dosed per day could be much quicker but equally expecting 600 patients to be filled in a 2 month period feels tough to achieve.
Analysis period of 2 weeks feels tight also but I'm assuming this is given very high priority.

Any thoughts on this? A number of people have talked about outputs of some sort in February and I'd like to understand how they've got to that.

Every single post with the word Eva in it bores the **** out of me, including this one.

1 of the 4 people who voted no was interviewed on CNN last night. Her no vote in her own words was not in principle to reject the EUA as a whole, but to register a concern that there is insufficient data to justify use of the vaccine on the 16-18 age group on the basis of risk and benefit. She would ideally want the FDA to approve for use for 18+ rather than 16+, and noted that additional data could be collected in the period before 16 to 18 year olds would naturally receive the vaccine, hence not impacting on distribution of the virus.

Thought it just just worth adding context. I don't know the reasons behind the other 3 no votes, and abstention.

From a personal perspective the shape of the share price on strong p3 results won't really matter. That's the time when I'll be 100% holding for news on orders. When orders come in, the true value of the product based on actual and potential future orders will become much more relevant than market reaction and sentiment.

According to the COO of BioNTech:
1. Is it effective?
2. Is it safe?

There you go, that's your lot! Something to have a bit of a laugh about on a Friday. Have a good weekend all!

When I see the phase 3 trial I see a platinum approach. Double blind, placebo controlled, impressive worldwide coverage. When I see the home trial it feels really amateurish from a recruitment perspective (am sure the actual trial will be very well done). I don't really get the contrast, it feels like two different companies. I get that they're focusing on the main hospital trial, but it confuses me, and saddened me, given how huge I think the early use potential is.

Got it thanks jint.

I've seen people referring to a Q&A after the Sharesoc event. Is there a registration for this separately or am I misunderstanding?

Tbh give pmjh a break.

You can get it all with a search on Google, advanced setting, news section. Use “Sng001 or synairgen or interferon”. Filter last 48 hours, order to most recent.

71% reduction to mortality in a study of 83 patients? That is a grossly irresponsible statistic. Note that Synairgen didn't measure impact on mortality given that in such a small population with an event that is as unlikely as death with Covid, you need a much bigger population to be able to have any degree of confidence. I'm getting really tired of seeing so called scientific articles putting out high impact but complete b***cks statements.

Hi CIty,

Very much appreciate you sharing this. Is there anything else you can tell us about this? I realise you don't want to give all the details of your sources, but posting this kind of thing does very much affect people's thinking on their actions, so anything else you could share on the nature of the source, how independent the sources are, likelihood that they might have all been indirectly from the same rumour, etc. would be very much appreciated.

As I say, I'd much rather that you post rather than hold back on this kind of thing, but any more details very welcome.

https://theconversation.com/how-effective-does-a-covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-need-to-be-to-stop-the-pandemic-a-new-study-has-answers-142468

There might be some more up to date thinking on this now but its the reference I've been using.

To take an example, if we assume perhaps 5% of US have the virus (likely a little lower but 0% is only other reference given so I've used 5% to reflect that it is in circulation to say the least), and 60% take the vaccine, with 50% effectiveness on infectivity, this will reduce the peak of infections by approximately 80%.

So currently 180k+ infections per day and unfortunately doesn't appear to be peaking yet. An 80% reduction gives 36000. This is just confirmed cases. In the UK expected actual cases are expected to be perhaps double those confirmed. So even when the vaccines have been fully distributed to those that are willing to take them, we might expect a winter peak (say next year) of around 70,000 cases per day in the US alone.

Lots of assumptions in here but it does paint a picture of this being very much a long term problem.

Really interesting, recommend this as a must watch to everyone.

Full analysis (presumably focusing on short term impact) in between 10 days and 3 weeks. This will give better understanding of impact on older demographic.
Impact on infectivity they will be able to "indirectly" assess in about 2 months time. My interpretation is that they will still be making assumptions and estimating at that point.

The biggest point by far: he would expect a vaccine of such high efficacy in preventing disease to translate into at least some efficacy in preventing infection. He would expect "not 90%, but perhaps 50%".

https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/news/2020-11-15-covid-19-ag-looks-into-sandfs-dodgy-cuban-drug-deal/

Makes me a bit uneasy thinking about bypassing a sound process. The article above shows how in an admittedly more extreme case it could turn sour.

Whatever may or may not be happening with India, I hope Synairgen consider the ethics of it.

Pretty sure it was 100,000 treatments, not doses.

Been in for 4 months up to now, was hugely confident, but Trueway got me thinking and after some soul searching I've decided to sell up and buy Nio stock. Off to google what Nio stock is now, wish me luck!

"What separates this study from many other pharmaceutical trials is its thoughtful design. Despite having a small sample size, being a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial allows this investigation to bypass many confounding elements that plague retrospective and observational studies. Moreover, publication in a peer-reviewed journal elevates its findings above data found on pre-print servers which have become so prevalent lately."

https://endpts.com/interferon-beta-1a-candidate-for-copd-advances-to-phiii-to-test-its-potential-against-covid-19/

“Some of them happen so infrequently,” Marsden said of the analyses. “So things like death — there were only three deaths in the trial. They were all on placebo, so we didn’t analyze that because it’s too small to analyze. Going onto ventilators was quite a rare event, so that one didn’t reach statistical significance, although it was numerically in favor of (the) drug.”

“The thing that we’re most excited about is getting people back to this level of no limitation of activities, and you’re more than twice as likely — approaching three times as likely in some of the analyses — of getting back to that level if you’re on drug compared to placebo,”

So why the small trial size? It’s what the WHO recommended back in January, Marsden said. Plus, “we didn’t have enough drug to do more patients,” he added. “So, that was us putting … our chips on the table and seeing if the drug could do something helpful. And I think what was very interesting (was) that during Q2 and Q3 this year, there’s been a mounting in literature which suggests that this virus is suppressing the production of interferon beta as part of its strategy to evade the immune system,” he said.

The following Reddit area focuses on Synairgen and SNG001, not on share price so is well worth a read. This is a heavily news based stock. Part of holding the shares is suffering the gaps in news when the share price often gradually drops. My view would be that investing here you need to be patient, take a long term view, and be comfortable with a lot of share price volatility.

https://www.reddit.com/r/synairgen/

Occasionally at work I'd be minding my own business, getting on with whatever I need to do, and then a random person in what was probably a 100,000 person organisation would accidentally send a "send to all" email. First time this happened the following hour was a surprise. Every time after that, I put my head in my hands and thought "Oh Christ, here we go again..."

What followed was a constant flow of people cleverly pointing out to the sender that they'd sent the e-mail to everybody and that they shouldn't do that. Sadly, they used respond to all to tell them. 10 minutes of that, then you'd get the stream of people telling people not to use send to all in responding to the original sender. They, of course, used reply to all to tell them this. Finally (more or less) you'd get the people getting really ****ed off that other people were so stupid as to use send to all, and telling people to stop responding to the email so people could get back to work. Guess what...... yes, they used send to all...

This is what happens every time the witch of the SNG board posts something here. Please, for the love of God, as soon as you see a post from her either scroll up to the next post; add her to filter (noting how foolish you are for not having done so earlier), or failing that just smash your laptop into a hundred pieces.