Member Info for glenonholiday

Fauci has gone on record about the White House super-spreader event. I wonder if he's decided to go to war with Trump. He's no doubt being pushed to give emergency authorisation to a drug that is hopelessly undertested on the basis that it was one of a host of drugs given to an individual that had a 96% chance of surviving anyway. Will be very interesting to see how it progresses...

It's going to be 99% Synairgen investors all trying to ask hopelessly indirect questions about the future of SNG001, plus a handful of very confused people :)

No.

Please don't let this board turn into a place for people to spread conspiracies.

There's been quite a lot of discussion recently around competing treatments and whether not being first to market is essential, and of course the implication of for example Regeneron getting EUA on SNG, etc. So I thought I'd put some numbers together to give an idea of what the next few years might look like, and what kinds of numbers this means for the "treatment market". Highlights are as follows:

Current cases, confirmed or otherwise, per month - 54 million
Current confirmed cases, per month - 8.4m
Current hospitalised cases per month - 1.4 million
Current deaths per month - 163,000

Even with a fairly successful vaccine, which in my view would arrive Spring next year and be rolled out over 18 months, and the resulting reduction in cases, my calculations are that over the next 2 years there would be roughly:

950,000 hospitalised cases per month
110,000 deaths per month

In short, we need a number of treatments, as there is no was that monoclonal antibodies in particular can be produced at almost 1m treatments per month. Thank God they're making progress in parallel with interferon...

Chart showing more or less how I've calculated the numbers in the link.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13JuGrqyjtY84ebu4K2wzrlIXALL6yTc77mVeSoUhkTg/edit#gid=0

Best post of the morning Bee! I’m off to the kettle.

Some other great posts too by the way.

The dynamic between the FDA and Trump over the next few weeks with regards to Regeneron and EUA will be blimmin’ interesting. Massive pressure on both sides I think. The FDA may week be under a lot of pressure from Trump but (and god I hope this is true) he looks to be on the way out and very soon a lame duck.

Take a look. He's pushing Regeneron and Eli Lilly for EUA. Will be interesting to see how the FDA react, given the level of clinical development in both cases. Oh and they aren't therapeutics, they're cures, apparently.

Yeah sadly its likely the home trial, so they've just got the facts wrong. Oh well...

Been away for a bit, but nobody's responded to this. I notice they say that "The company, whose market value has more than trebled in the past six months alone, has now extended the second phase of the trial to include a further 120 patients with Covid-19." This doesn't relate to anything I'm aware of. Any thoughts on this? I'd generally put this in the wild speculation category but given that RM has done interviews with them previously, I wonder if this has some basis in fact?

If he dies, it will make regulators more nervous of granting emergency use for unproven therapeutics.

Disappointing thing for me is that not a single reporter as far as I’m aware has ever asked “why is the government doing nothing to support covid treatments?”

It does confirm that BJ is poorly informed on treatments. He talks like a member of the public. Dexa, Remdes, Regeneron all available according to him. Feels like he’s seen it on the news. Such a poor comment from him.

They're releasing information very regularly on his treatment. It's ridiculous to imagine that they'd not mention SNG if he were being given it, given that he's already been given experimental drugs. I'd imagine it's possible he'd receive interferon in some shape or form given its general recognition as having positive effects, but presumably every time he receives an additional drug, it greatly increases the likelihood of a negative reaction with all the other treatments he's been receiving.

Regeneron is getting national coverage, as it the Recovery Trial. On Breakfast TV this morning. Questions on whether it's possible to receive Regeneron if you wanted to, outside the trial, etc.

Seems very much a double-edged sword. No doubt it's huge publicity for a drug if Trump receives it, but it's potentially irresponsible experimental use of the drug and if he deteriorates it could be very damaging. But of course its very likely he'll recover and that would lead to continued positive coverage.

The one things that seems for certain is that this is moving coverage to treatments, rather than testing and vaccination.

I tend to agree. The MAP with Clinigen will be important for two purposes - 1) making the drug available when requested by a clinician, hence hopefully saving lives, and 2) building support and awareness in the medical community through the professional grapevine.

Although I'm hopeful that EMA emergency authorisation will come through mid-October, my more objective view is that it's more likely to be in the next round, mid-November.

Next significant step would be peer review results. Have heard opinions that the peer review community are not stepping up as you would hope they would, which would explain a turnaround of approaching 3 months (but recognise that they will have multiple pressures at the moment).

So all in all I expect more significant news to be a little over a month away. But I'm happy that there seems to be a building of momentum with COPD results, MAP, additional broker. Things certainly seem to be moving in the right direction. Just need to be a little patient.

Was anybody aware of Chinese healthcare workers using inhaled interferon proactively? I would treat it with quite a bit of scepticism if it wasn't from "the Waldemar Von Zedtwitz Professor in the Department of Immunobiology and a Professor in the Department of Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology at Yale University".

Her support for Interferon is positive enough without this fact, but this opens up a whole new use case which could be used in huge quantities if it had merit.

Wow. She really said this. This is mind blowing, no?

On the number of cases, I have confirmed cases line is 10 million per month currently, so just a bit over 300,000 cases per day.

Actual cases is based on an expectation that only 20% of actual cases are confirmed. The actual cases I don't us ein any of the financials.

Hi Dumbpunter. You can't see formulas because I put this together in Excel and copied it across to Google sheets, which loses the formulas. I'll push the formulas in so you can see it, but it won't be editable. Quite enjoying putting this together so don't mind doing it.

£100 per dose, 14 doses. I'm adding as I go along, it updates immediately so you might see a work in progress.

Starting estimate £6.02 share price by the way :)