Member Info for Glengarth

Would hesitate to say that RiR - we know positive bottom line is achievable at the capacity of 30,000tpa which the company is now at - it seems to me that TGR may not be immediately at that level up to March 2023 when the end of the Financial Year concludes and is reported on but I’d expect the internal numbers generated by the company at that 30,000tpa rate will be used for any financing activities once it has demonstrated the higher levels of production and sales, hence the company’s focus on announcements on ramping up which will see cash positive bottom line.

Just patiently holding and not listening to the noise for now while the company proves itself as we are all hoping to see over the next few months.

GLA

However, because they timed the market years too early, Syrah have only been operating at about 50% capacity for 4 years or so at 175ktpa. Syrah single-handedly demonstrated to the rest of the market the importance in the Graphite industry of having your material qualified to the extent that for whatever stage you are planing there is sufficient consumer interest, otherwise a project is essentially hung out to dry and will be a massive drain on cash and resources until the market grows enough to want your produce (in competition with other projects also vying to sell the same/similar material). Syrah has never turned a consistent operational profit/nor had positive cashflow as far as i'm aware. There has been noise to indicate they might be able to operate above that 175ktpa as obviously Graphite demand has risen and looks continue to rise.

I think it's feasible that with approval of the project and the green light from regulators and stakeholders with a clear sign the project is supported and will go ahead (with indicated support from central EU funds to match the type seen in the US and its IRA) then being where it is, as SAV could represent a first major step forward for Europe, in light of challenges faced elsewhere on the continent, then SAV could see a very significant premium to others listed in South America + Africa, maybe even Australia (relative to size) given the v short shipping distances and processing + EV makers wanting to be on the front door. I wouldn't put on a number forward myself just yet, but much further north I would think the closer to certainty of production we get.

GLA

Good luck to Europe which needs this project urgently to reduced dependency on external nations and demonstrate a domestic mining and supply capability, to Portugal and local stakeholder swhich this project will benefit massively, bringing jobs and investment and help contribute to the country + continent net zero agenda, and of course to Savannah which has worked hard with APA and national figures to get this project over the line!

Good luck all!

Indeed a shake to scare them into finally just leaving the register is welcome tbh before deal completion

Mcsquares 100% - no effect to operations, passed far south and across in the Channel between the continent and Madagascar. TGR is in its strongest position ever, not just because it has not been effected by weather in anywhere near the same level as last year (following which it still bounced back with increased production and sales for the year) but also because it now is able to continue its ramp up for >6,000MTs of production and sales a quarter which should produce a very strong bottom line for the company to progressively build on this foundation in Madgascar.

Looking forward to the squeeze here when it comes as this realisation occurs!

GLA

Restarting some accumulation at these levels - board has made positive noise including positive notes from the likes of Ghana’s Minerals Commission and MIIF

https://twitter.com/atlanticlithium/status/1635170344515563521?s=46&t=Kd9oN7lEXrwqvOg2hyHmPg

GLA

Very good to see EMH produce its DFS for its integrated project

Ball is rolling now with Europe aware of the need for as much domestic Lithium production as possible with the advent of the CRA this month and SAV's EIA submission. With Portugal continuing to grow its renewables share of its energy supply, and SAV the simplest significant large scale, shovel ready resource i'm hoping Dale can complete the company's work with APA and that Portugal can propel itself to the front of Europe's supply chain needs.

GLA

INA deal now looking extremely close (I know all been said before lol) - but just look at the stock entitlement buildup valuation - INA deal will almost have paid for itself because of its effective date of 30th September 2021:

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1633015613441429505?s=20

In parallel expecting a very strong situation for the Sonangol deal - oil has remained and is forecast to remain very healthily above $75/bbl level and effective date is from 20th April 2022 so we are nearly a year there - the whole deal has under a 3 year payback at $75/bbl. This is going to provide a very nice runway into the next deals imo with a lot of free cash flow coming onto the balance sheet.

GLA

Great presentation, love how confident she evidently is.

What was even better for me was her input in the follow up discussion on financing, urge all to listen and see if the same bits stand out to you as they did to me ;)

GL

Good luck to all shareholders. Good luck to all Portuguese. Good luck to all Europeans. Good luck to Savannah.

EIA has been a long time coming and fantastic we have almost reached the point of submission this month. SAV+Portugal could be responsible for a huge shift in the geopolitical strategy with regards to the nascent domestic European Li-ion battery supply chain. A green light here will be extremely significant news and wish all parties supporting this project every success.

disagree with a line that rigid - from experience in Africa cans can be kicked for a long time and will test the patience of those with the best patience levels - longstop dates no longer mean what they are supposed to and are merely symbolic now.

Good to see confirmation of strong prices achieved on the INA side of things. News can’t be far away on that front and Sonangol CP license extension news must be edging closer

GLA

Glyn,

There are of course more than 2 Graphite producers in the world.

The point I think being made is that there are only 2 outside China, that are listed on public markets to date that have brought projects online. These are Syrah Resources and Tirupati Graphite.
As far as I’m aware the closest other public listed companies to achieving production and bringing actual new projects online are are Nextsoure Materials which is a few months from starting production of its 17,000tpa plant in Southern Madagascar, and potentially Northern Graphite Corp in Namibia (their North American asset was acquired off Imerys, so was already in production).
Many companies in the space are v early stage, still qualifying their material, arranging offtakes and have massive infrastructure and capex to fund. I can’t see any other major ex-China production coming online for another 12-15 months, and that’s being optimistic imo! TGR is therefore in a sweet spot if it can leverage its current production capacity, ability to continue to qualify material and expand production rapidly, as well as able to rapidly bring on the fresh production assets in Mozambique if the demand is there!

GLA

Yep - having followed the cyclone on windy.com it was around 100km South of TGR operations. With construction completed and commissioning of Sahamamy the company is now in very good position to ramp up to targeted 80%+ of 30,000tpa.
Would remind people Vatomina was up and running all of the Oct-Dec quarter so production and sales of those 3 months were likely higher than the whole of the preceding 6 months published in the interim results to September. Plus looking at another strong quarter in Jan-April of again higher numbers so in my estimate the second half of this year to March will be roughly 3x higher than the 1st half, so still a chance to breakeven this FY!
Looking forward TGR is in a v strong position to develop its plans with the 30,000tpa capacity installed. Rough numbers for the next 12 months I reckon: 80% of 30,000MTs@$820/MT= c$20m revenue. At 40% gross margin = c.$8m gross profit , $5-7m EBITDA.
Lots of opportunity to leverage those numbers to reinvest into the next module depending on how TGR sees its priorities playing out and demand for various products. Also opens scope to further work on the downstream/TSG side.

GLA

TGR as a current significant producer is what puts it in the driving seat, miles ahead of those yet to reach production or even begin qualification of material let alone those in remote locations which will have huge costs per MT of production.

What makes TGS special in this instance: TGR is selling and qualifying to existing, new and prospective consumers, and is far more easily able to increase capacity via its modular expansion approach. Plus major construction ready, explored and proven, assets being acquired either side of ex-China’s largest producer, Syrah Resource already producing material anode products for the likes of Tesla.

At 30,000tpa TGR should be a very healthy financial venture, producing strong positive cashflows (by my calcs it can do this if it sells around 8,000MTs in a year - we are now at a point of doing that in just over every 4 months at the full production rate.
The previous fundraise provided money for the various payment conditions of the Battery minerals/Suni Resources deal as well as working capital - negative EBITDA fell last year and would have been closer to positive had we not had the weather disruption in Feb 2022 and production innovations+mitigations throughout 2022.

TGR now in a very strong position to be the first potential profitable Graphite miner ex-China going into FY23-24 imo

GLA

With this RNS TGR is finally a globally significant producer

30,000tpa built using in-house capabilities, at industry low capex is no small feat. Now to watch the company ramp up to >6,000MTs per quarter of production and sales. Any further movement in graphite prices upward will be extremely beneficial now as we are a current significant producer.

Expecting more news to come as the company continues its development imo

GLA

It hardly a secret MIIF are investing given all the publicity the project has received in the past year/months - clearly it makes sense for Ghana to have a significant interest (for which their investment will go toward the ALL coffers don't forget) in such a project that will be a vital link to new global supply chains forming for the global energy transition!

Enjoying the occasional top up opportunities sub 30p - 10 months is not a long time for dealmaking related to oil-producing assets and transactions involving the state and multiple parties.

As we know INA is effectively a matter of any day now, even as the weeks have passed since the approval RNS in mid January.
Sonangol deal will take time and M&P have sounded positive in their recent commentary on license extensions on the same block.
All the while I would hope the AET team are scouting out new possible deals, which their publicised networking and noises suggest has been ongoing.

GLA