Member Info for Glengarth

I have seen others use long term pricing assumptions for Spodumene of c.$2,000/t - but ofc we know the spot price is higher and the EUR news placing a floor price of $3,000/t is very significant. I think SAV will be able to achieve a relative premium for its product as in terms of margin there is much less to worry about for payments terms, shipping and logistics costs, plus ofc cost of production thanks to hydropower making up much of the electricity supply. Either way a c.$2,000/t pricing assumption is very very much higher than the initial scoping study's $685/t, anything achieved higher than that on top is an added bonus!

GLA

Am not too sure about Urbix's progress Andii - they have received quite a lot of press in recent years and have made noises about partnerships with other potential future Graphite producers, including BAT before TGR's acquisition.

GLA

Featuring in the FT

https://www.ft.com/content/134d5248-d001-44fe-9a67-0d01361c0da3

Truly huge moment for Europe - expecting the company will be receiving a lot of inbound inquiries today for partnerships and potential supply arrangements - Europe's largest spodumene resource and first real prospective simple-process conventional hard rock Lithium spodumene project in Europe to positively progress

GLA

Well said, shareitup. Fully agree with your view and sentiment. Many companies have inflection points from which they go on to do great things and they have their moment. I think this is SAV's.

GLA

Link to updated corporate presentation:

https://www.savannahresources.com/investors/presentations/

Have seen about 3 emails from SAV this morning, they're on it. Can't wait for the first sniff of partnership/offtakes to come through

Excellent news - very happy for Dale and the local communities set to be completely rejuvenated - as well as Europe actually making a positive step forward - keep an eye out for partnerships etc now. Well done SAV!

As usual I will post a feeling as before: this project represents the potential first step for Europe to finally begin to find some dynamism and bring itself into the modern industrial economy by establishing a simple, conventioanl hard-rock lithium spodumene project within its boundaries, which will have a strong ripple effect benefitting locals, communities and industry participants - this includes socially as well as economically, and the environmental aims of this project are clear for all to see and the mine plans are the most environmentally minded that may have ever been prepared. I hope Portugal is ready to take on this mantle and crown as the first major mover toward a domestic Lithium-ion supply chain and begin to chip away at massive over-dependence of overseas actors. Fingers crossed for the local communities, the nationals of Portugal, the OEMs, the battery makers, the EU, the West - and ofc us shareholders!

GLA

Exactly - looking forward to Portugal getting itself into Europe's Lithium driving seat, fingers crossed

Why would it not take until the end of the timeframe provided?

Most deals, transactions, government agency decisions etc use up all of their time (and then some in commercial settings, often leading to extensions) - huge decision for Portugal, Europe, EU and ofc SAV and us shareholders coming up.

GLA

Looking v good here!

End of next quarter for official final results. May get similar unaudited quarterly results though going forward following the last announcement - to be seen.

Would expect news on other fronts as well as the year progresses

GLA

Indeed it is a good research note, however TGR is listed on LSE main market segment, NOT AIM. Just your regular reminder for those on these boards :)

GLA

Excellent news - well done to management and partners.

Great to see deal flow start and this taking shape - only just the beginning of what could be a very strong journey - hence the noteworthy tie up with Trafigura and MCB on finance - future deals won't be to far away imo!

GLA

Don't think they are saying that at all - several on here, including myself are encouraging other investors and other prospective investors to note the continuous improving performance of the company that is gradually delivering on its efforts to ramp up its 30,000tpa capacities and are indicating the strong financial results that are just around the corner (if you can think more than just a couple of quarters ahead!) should the company continue to deliver.

Plot a line on a graph for the targets with revenue and tonnage sales on each axis, derive the gross margin based on achieve margins to date, extrapolate and voila! All the best.

GLA

Yep - clearly the company is now entering another league in terms of financial performance so long as it continue its production and sales ramp up effectively.

For example:

The company achieved nearly £1m gross profit for the second half of the year - on sales of 2,291MTs (FY:3981-H1:1691) - we know Corporate & Admin costs for the half year is typically around that amount for TGR's half year periods. So EBITDA-wise and positive cash flow-wise, as Andii says TGR is likely EBITDA positive from this quarter (for the half year) if it achieves sales of c.3,000MTs - but as we know the stated guidance is 6,100-6,500MTs, AND those sales are targeted at higher prices than have been achieved to date, and will clearly achieved positive annual EBITDA + cash flow at this targeted level.

Capex spending for the 30,000tpa capacity now in place all complete. There was mention of expanding to 36,000tpa with very little relative additional spending.

Not hard to see where this is going imo with rising sales, steady costs/lowering costs in places imo

Any further increases in the graphite prices achieved would be transformational, which as a current producer means TGR is one of 2/3 ex-China listed companies able to benefit

GLA

Exactly Andii - TGR is now in the position to produce huge amounts on a quarterly basis - we are seeing it grow rapidly through this transformation period

Just look at the numbers - this is achieved on sales of under 4,000MTs - hoping for over 6x that much this FY at the 30,000tpa installed capacities!

Highlights

• Gross profit for FY23 increased 170% Year on Year (“YoY”) to £1,372,048 (FY22: £508,112)

• Total production increased by 59% YoY to 4,770 tons (FY22: 2,996 tons)

• Total Sales increased by 76% YoY to £2,890,010 (FY22: £1,645,308)

• Basket price realised per ton of graphite sold increased by 17% to £726 (FY22: £618)

Renewable energy now contributing to power generation on site, and as per the last operational update in early April we know the company is selling more and more high grade 97% larger flake concentrate as part of its basket = more sale + higher prices - looking very strong now for the current FY imo

GLA

Now those are some lovely results! Looking very strong going into this current year with the major capacity expansions in place imo

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1655817247204548610?s=20

Huge opportunity now as TGR grows rapidly looking at those numbers - actually quite surprised they're that good considering the first half of the year back in early 2022.

GLA

Good questions Andii - in terms of Syrah; they’ve had a dire time with their Balama mine. They built it to capacity of 350,000tpa but have never utilised it to its full capacity as when they built there was not enough demand back in 2018. Since then they’ve tried to operate at about 50% of that capacity but have struggled still with a basket dominated by fines, which the massive costs of running such a big processing plant at c.50% utilisation and recovery issues on the ground have outweighed lower fines prices as a result.
Syrah really needs ex-China natural graphite demand for fine flake to come online ASAP as is happening at readily, hence targeting the US and also notice where it sees massive value in having vertical integration as it’s business model.
TGR therefore has multiple potential advantages imo here’s a few off the top of my head:
1. Much lower capex required per tonne TGR wants to produce in Mozambique, as proven in Madagascar and further benefitted by Mozambique’s infrastructure, construction already done at Montepuez (about £10m worth already!) and the fact the grades are up to 3-4x higher in places than it is at the Madagascar projects.

2. TGR is preparing to develop and construct at a time of massive ex-China demand growth - it can have the pick to serve US/European/Asian markets (including of course India) straight off the bat, rather than have to rely on China for pricing which Syrah seemingly does.

3. If TGR vertically integrates with TSG or in some form at least sharing TSG tech then it can value add the whole range of downstream graphite products - not just EV Li-ion anode material such as coated/uncoated spherical graphite but the industrial side too e.g. expandable, foams etc as we saw mentioned being produced and already being sold into the UK to Minralis for example.

So essentially, lower capex and being a cash flow positive current producer that will help re-investment and debt payments helps reduce long term costs giving protections against lower Graphite prices compared to competition; there is a quickly growing market that TGR should be racing to win market share in and make partnerships to grow awareness of what it offers; and it has many lessons from other companies of how to navigate a strong and successful downstream route. Much to play for!

GLA

wow - still observing from afar after long ago selling out of what turned out to be a big disappointment - but today's RNS is big about the Shareholder Requisition notice - propositioning removal and replacement of the current directors!