Member Info for Glengarth

Great to see strong director buying here as Europe awaits news on this, it’s best immediate source of Lithium spodumene imo

Just looking at the sheer cost of Vulcan energy's plans for example - a massive underground brine and geothermal project, huge execution risk, financially and operationally which is set to cost EUR1.49BN, yes 1.49 BILLION euros.
Europe has much safer and more sensible projects to launch its domestic Lithium production strategy, one of course being SAV's at a much reduced risk involving conventional hard rock spodumene and much much lower cost of just over c.£100m and the trade offs for Portugal and Europe are huge by getting SAV into production as soon as possible imo

Excellent!!

INA done
Sonangol - expanded, improved terms, just pending

Well done all patient holders, much more to come here now!

Just looking at the figures in the below linked Tweet by Simon from Benchmark for the Tesla Masterplan:

Tesla Master Plan 3: Critical Minerals take

Lithium is the stand out blocker for the energy transition needing $170Bn mining investment

Nickel is second ($145bn)cl, Graphite is third ($104bn)

For refining graphite shoots up to second needing $178bn, lithium still 1st ($204bn)

That's a total global investment requirement for Graphite of $178 BILLION - and that's an urgent number for without one of the elements critical for Li-ion batteries being scaled up in production then the whole supply chain struggles. Simply, a good place to start by governments, investment agencies, ESG investors and of course the OEMs may be the current producers able to rapidly expand, even better if possible to do cheaply vs other options. Huge opportunity for TGR to begin building markets share and demonstrate itself as a reliable supplier as one of only 2-3 current significant producers outside China.

https://twitter.com/sdmoores/status/1643868381957828609?s=20

GLA

Risk is Reward - only 3, including TGR, of those companies listed in that report are making any money hence the disconnect and why TGR’s mcap is so undervalued imo - the 30,000tpa level we are now at should result in good financial performances, even improved further by the company’s latest update suggesting the average basket price will rise this FY to over $900/MT - whereas many others are years from first production with projects far behind the developed stages of all TGR’s projects.

GLA

Arguably yes Astro - LFP is becoming a more dominant battery chemistry for mass produced vehicles so more of these batteries will be produced - however the incredible thing right now that is under appreciated across the market is that Graphite is used in all current mass deployed Lithium battery chemistries, including all those you mentioned as well as just LFP!

GLA

Solid interview by Shishir there - glad he suggests further production upside possible mentioning the 7,500MT per quarter production potential, aside from current 6,100-6,500MT guidance for this April-June quarter...

Company seems to be working v hard with 2 projects expanding production in Madagascar and developing plans for new massive world class projects in Mozamqbique. Currently permitting allows total production of 158ktpa in Mozambique and 84ktpa in Madagascar for a total of 242,000tpa for the company to develop of the course of the next few years.

GLA

The point is as sales volumes rise then those growing margins and higher prices have an out-sized impact and what would have been achieved before at lower prices and lower margins is massively improved upon by higher prices and better margins.

Essentially as TGR scales now, its average prices achieved have been guided as increasing, we should get economies of scale, on top of those margins normalising and costs are expected to drop per MT produced as a result, producing much strengthened results - and that is before the price of Graphite has started to rise in a significant way as is expected once the widely suggested impending Graphite deficit kicks in.

GLA!

Gets better and better now as TGR matures its operations
- higher production is happening, albeit it slightly disrupted by the temporary short precautionary shut downs - still production trending much higher now; 2,400MTs in Q1 is 50% higher than in the entire 6 month period of the first half of the year, and guidance remains for Q1-FY24: at between 6,100 - 6,500 tonnes.
- the real fantastic news is two-fold however. 1st the company has achieve 97% high purity production and sales out of Vatomina, that's huge because it means higher prices; TGR is Targeting c.10% uplift in basket price realisation from Madagascan production to between US$910 - US$935 per metric tonne in the fiscal year to March 2024(!) - that will have a massive impact on financial performance if as expected margins were normalising following the pandemic and the adverse weather impact mitigation work last year.
Secondly, as mentioned in the RNS these type of high purity products help open up a range of new customers for TGR and the fact we have commenced selling to them like the German specialist is very significant as we ramp up production - could see news of commercial agreements soon as mentioned there are qualification processes underway with potential customers across a range of sectors.

And actually will throw in a third - all of this demonstrates the hugely significant advantage TGR has over other players in the Graphite space that are yet to mine anything and are still years from producing, and also the benefit of the modular design approach. As TGR is producing and actively expanding, it is able to gain market share much easier by demonstrating itself RIGHT NOW as a reliable partner and supplier, and can actively sell and market material to different customers rather than simply rely on a single group or one or two groups to qualify material before anything can happen as is the case at other Graphite companies right now across the ex-China space. TGR is THE place to get your Graphite from RIGHT NOW if you want it urgently and potentially secure long term supply as one of only <3/5 ex-China listed Graphite producers of significance imo

GLA!

The value of lithium projects that will be developed within the European mainland will attain a significant premium imo exactly because of the high value they will represent for the future European economy in the age of increasing competition for vitally important raw materials like Lithium globally imo

GLA

Excellent news this morning

TGR have shown they are savvy corporate operators with how this deal has been structured, limiting its cost (the acquisition cost is cheaper than the value of the work completed to date at the projects, including exploration&drilling AND construction) in this significant bit of M&A. We are now an international, multi-jurisdiction graphite producer.

Don’t let the size of these projects pass you by - we’ve got something like 152MT of tonnage, with a total increase by a factor of 12X in contained Graphite with a lot of mine planning, infrastructure and development. Work already commenced. On top of this, our projects sit in the largest ex-China Graphite province in the world, straddling Syrah Resources which has a mcap of £500m+!

Very exciting time a ahead as TGR now propels above from its solid Madagascar platform imo

GLA

Lovely news

Very impressed by SAV's submission here, there's a lot of detail, and clearly they have adjusted their plans to better meet the needs and requirements of stakeholders, local and national, as well as to allow Portugal to have as much ecological sovereignty as possible at the start of the potential domestic European Lithium supply chain.

A redo of the scoping study is a smart move in my opinion as well - very quickly update the headline figures provided in such a scoping using new metrics available - hopefully cheaper opex with greater clean electricity providing by a growing proportion of hydropower that makes up Portugal's electricity grid supply, and something I think all will agree on here: updating the assumed spodumene price. In the previous scoping study the price used was $685/t which provided for a 48.6% IRR on an initial capex of US$109m. While I expect the capex will likely have moved up to probably $125-140m(?), we know for sure that spoduemene price assumption can be almost tripled if not more with the current prices being achieved of around $5,000/t and others using conservative long term pricing of around $2,000/t - having said that I wonder if domestically produced spodumene may have attached a slight premium over material requiring huge distances for transportation for processing?

All in all, very excited, well done Dale and the team at SAV !

GLA

Well said BBN and Mccquares

strong reversal here when it comes, as alluded by how quickly this moves, lot of the shares are in sticky hands so doesn't take much to move it in either direction.
We hit this level last June/July and proceeded to bounce to 50p - would expect any such bounce to go much higher this time given the progress to date that's been confirmed, the fact there has been NO weather disruption this year compared to last year, and the fact TGR is now in a position to build its cash from its completed 30,000tpa capacity.

GLA

calm

I think some are getting the situation quite wrong - there is no meaningful downstream yet up and running that is producing and resulting in value for management. It’s been stated that the downstream arm needs capital, how does that translate into what those below are claiming?
The first step here having achieved the 30,000tpa capacity and that the company is doing is ramping up production and sales of graphite concentrate so that this primary arm of the business is cash generative and earning, enough to support itself and leverage for expansions.
In the current climate this is the most important aspect and the company has announced it can turn its attention to Moz+the downstream now its scale achieve significant cash flows has been achieved.
Agree the company can be more transparent in how it provides guidance and future plans, however, I expect this will soon follow as it has now got to the stage where it is comfortably on its feet.

GLA

Board + Management own c.30%

the point is NH would not have bought such a large quantity and value of shares if he had material doubts on the progression of the project - v strong signal given here today imo

GLA

Probs best just to post Tweet with link - let’s see

https://twitter.com/savannahres/status/1636679700159295489?s=46&t=Kd9oN7lEXrwqvOg2hyHmPg

Starfox (and others) - thank you for your posts, extremely well researched and massively appreciate sharing on here.

SAV looks as though it will be Portugal's flagship new project to demonstrate its amenability for mining and supplying Europe with Lithium it will desperately need.
And as others have also alluded to, the monetary reward, as well as the reward to the planet in the form of the material being used to reduce the lifetime emissions of vehicular transportation, are significant and will be enjoyed by all stakeholders and beyond imo.

GLA