Member Info for GingerHippo

Tipil application was "lodged" in RNS on 17 June 2019
Flanks application was "submitted" in RNS on 26 September 2019

Anyone know what the difference between "submitted" and "lodged for approval" is? I'm not sure if there is any difference at all.

In any case that's a difference of 101 days. But I believe Tipil license was awarded about a month ago. So expect the flanks license around mid-October.

I'm not really predicting, more like incorporating things I know happened so far this year, plus one or two speculations.

I hope we get to at least $50 for oil as BL indicated he would push on with further drilling at that level (he previously said $60)

I did, Badger. My workings are for Dec 2020. We haven't had 3000 boepd all year so tbh £5M might be pushing it a little, as you said. But hopefully it will keep going up each year.

Do you see oil as still being at around $44 in a year?

Just had a quick go at estimating next year's accounts. Just a guess really. It assumes net profit of £5M; £1M on a new investment during H2; £1M of the BP loan paid off and another £1M payable within 12 months.

Assets:
Investments £14.8M
Trade and other receivables £7.4M
Cash £3.8M
Total assets £26M

Capital and reserves
Share capital £5.5M
Share premium £11.6M
Share-based payment £1.2M
Retained earnings £1.3M
Total shareholder funds £19.6M

Liabilities:
Trade and other £2.8M
Tax £0.2M
Non-current liabilities £3.4M
Total liabilities £6.4M

Net profit of £5M

The following calculation was done without trying to force the result. It was a happy accident.

NAP was sold for £600M with 3M oz.

We have 15M oz at least. That’s £3Bn.

On one hand we would need to discount that at say 8% for 2 years. On the other hand we have WK, lower prices and strategic importance. So I think £3Bn is the minimum.

3000x0.8x0.9 is £2,160
With 2.8Bn shares that’s 77p per share. Call it 78p for good luck.

That’s the minimum I think.

Mr Flanks had the biggest flanks in all of Flanksville. "Oh my flanks are so very very big" he used to say.......

Earth to rampers........... NN (the current largest PGM producers) have a market cap of about £32Bn. Simple logic tells me that EUA cannot be worth £20Bn.

But £2-3Bn, sure, as per my previous calculations.

This share does not need ramping. Calm yourselves.

Levi at 19:42

I think you’ll look back before too long and realise that the equity raise to acquire rockhopper was a stroke of brilliance. We’re making £5M a year or so from it.

Sorry the risk you took has not been recognised as quickly as you’d like. I remain confident that Mr Market will realise his error here at some point.

17:10
He may have said it before but this time he has the revenue stream from Egypt to back him up.

If he does raise equity I’m sure it would be for a good reason and shareholders will gain.

Also his salary is disclosed in the accounts. He’s making a good salary but I don’t think we’re being ripped off considering what he has accomplished.

Ultimately this is a growing business in a strong position and the market will recognise that eventually.

If he were to issue new shares at 3p we wouldn't lose out. We'd own a smaller % of a larger company.

In any case, he has strongly implied there won't be any dilution for the foreseeable.

This is an outrageous deramp.

BL's doing an amazing job growing the company. That's his job. It's not his job to worry about the sp for inept stock speculators.

Some ppl be like “if we don’t go up at least 5% every day there must be something wrong”

This is what happens when ppl look at the share price not the underlying business. This is speculating not investing.

You say things are very different from 2 weeks ago. Really? UBS are still on board, Citic are still on board, the 15M oz of PGM are still there, the BoD still owns over 20% of the company. Pd is still in deficit. The largest shareholders still hold their shares. Seems to me that nothing has changed except your expectations of how the share price ought to behave.

The stock market is a device for moving wealth from the impatient to the patient.

You sold out? Give me a minute to find my microscope so I can see all the f***s I give. I think I left 1 or 2 in the garage. Maybe there’s one in the office.

You took pennies. We’ll wait for the pounds.

This price is bananas
B-A-N-A-N-A-S..............

I came for the 2M oz of PGM.

I stayed for the 15M oz of PGM.

I came for the ridiculously asymmetric risk/reward.

I stayed for the number of experienced people and institutions who all stand to benefit from a huge deal here.

Why?

I wonder how much we paid for the license (with £30M having been put in by Tullow). A nominal fee. Has our balance sheet just effectively increased by £30M? market's response? Up 1.79% What a joke.

PS, of course our balance sheet won't actually go up by £30M because we'll still show it at cost. But Tullow would have been showing it at £30M cost, and we just got it for 'a nominal fee'

Holy s*** this is a dangerous thread. Too many things wrong with it to enumerate. I hope admin deletes it.

No source no credibility.