Member Info for GingerHippo

AI creates so much rubbish, or at best poor or incomplete information, robust information providers like RELX are going to be even more important going forward. And they can use AI to grow further and improve margins. Rather than being a threat to RELX, I believe AI enhances it.

And 0.1 not long before that....

LOL, Paul. So if someone agrees with a sensible point of view it must be a conspiracy.... Ridiculous, man.

That's what exploration companies do.

They don't spend money drilling because they know it's a commercial find. They spend money drilling precisely because they DON'T know if it's a commercial find. That's obvious. right?

Cos it's an exploration company. That's literally what they do.

You understand that the fact that they're drilling proves that they don't know if it's a commercial resource. Otherise they'd be mining already. They drill because they need more info before they can even make a decision. That's the purpose of exploration companies.

Those intercepts are cherry-picked best hits, not the average grade.

They say it themselves. "Select sample"

Northern Zone’s actual average grade is only 0.4–0.6 g/t, which is below normal economic cut-off for a standalone open pit.

High-grade intercepts don’t matter unless they’re continuous over large tonnage, and if they were, the company would already have a MRE. They’ve been recycling the same cehrry-picked best hits for over a year because there’s no consistent, mineable zone to report as of yet.

The RNS is again non-comital. It says they are drawing up "plans" and "plan" to mine in 2026. You can draw up whatever plans you want, it doesn't mean anything. Just like Everton draw up plans on how to win the premiership. Doesn't mean it's realistic. If you honestly believe Mega will start mining an area before they have an MRE and PEA, I've got a bridge to sell you.

Call me a troll if it makes you feel better about your lack of understanding of the mining sector. The number of people who click recommend on such posts has no bearing on the outcome.

That is definitely true Steve, although at the moment nobody (including Naheed) knows what the costs will be.

But yeah, in general terms costs always go up, grades almost never do, and gold prices fluctuate. To take the decision to invest a large amount of capex, mega would need to be sure they will make enough return to justify the investment, within an acceptable margin of error. NZ is nowhere near that point yet, and might never be.

Correct. If you use a more recent average gold price you’ll find that the cutoff grade is around NZ’s grade. Meaning that at these grades the project more or less breaks even.

So if you were Mega would you invest tens of millions into a project with the hope of breaking even? Obviously not.

Which is why I keep saying that unless the grades improve (very unlikely) or they prove more continuity at shallow depth (possible), the area will probably never be mined.

Duuuuuuuuuuude............. that article refers to OUNCES not grams lol. 0.037 ounces is 1 gram. So in the example you refer to, the cut off grade was 1g/t, significantly above ORCP's grade of 0.4-0.6g/t.

Come on. Seriously.

So instead of proving ultra-low grades are viable, the article literally confirms the exact opposite.

Dream, it's the overall grades that count. You can't justify the huge capex that would be needed here just for some good intersections if the overall grades are poor.

RNSs are used partly to disseminate regulatory information and partly for marketing. Showing a few of the best hits they got falls under marketing. The key figure is the overall grade of 0.4-0.6g/t which every RNS makes clear, but some people here want to ignore.

The idea that these drills will suddenly turn grades from 0.4-0.6g/t to 5g/t is pure fantasy. More likely we'll get a more accurate estimate somewhere in this rage.

Best case scenario here is that the better intersections are more shallow than previously thought, bringing potential cash flow earlier than expected which would improve the NPV of the asset a bit, possibly justifying the capex, but not fundamentally changing the nature of the asset.

But if the grades don't improve, or at least show continuity at shallow depth, then this will probably never be mined, which is why Riversgold has an even lower market cap than ORCP.

Lord, NZ won't cost ORCP any more, but that doesn't mean ORCP doesn't need money to continue operating. Meanwhile, gold mines from this stage rarely get to production stage and if they do it takes years. Therefore, there will be plenty more placings to come.

If you don't believe me, read Riversgold's own announcement: "There has been INSUFFICIENT EXPLORATION to estimate a Mineral Resource and it is UNCERTAIN if further exploration will result in the estimation of a Mineral Resource."

I don't recall any RNS saying there will non-dilutive funding from now on. IIRC someone here said they got an email saying they were "looking at" non-dilutive funding. That's not the same thing at all.

What I do recall the accounts saying is "the Company does not generate any revenue and so it is dependent on raising new funds to finance the development of its various projects."

Never mind. As long as your posts get lots of recommendations….

2/

People sitting on 90% losses shouldn’t be giving advice to anyone. And nobody should take it.

So the fact that people question me so much and get so annoyed by my posts while liking all of theirs without grilling them over why they’ve been so stupid for the last 7 years or so, really tickles me no end. The more I write here the more astonished I am by supposedly rational investors writing just about any old nonsense to justify a bad investment and criticise anyone who points it out.

Naheed said in a webinar years ago now that the share price should be 10p. It wasn’t just that she said it, it was the way she said it. Worth watching. Since then there’s been like 8 placings, with more to come. So i would take anything said that's not explicit in an RNS with a tablespoon of salt.

People seem to have the impression that ORCP turned up in a new area, did some drilling and found some gold. That’s not the case. The grades were known about years before ORCP came along. Where was mega then? Why didn't anybody snap it up? Fair question?

How many people realise that ORCP gave 80% of the license to Riversgold for less than 80% of what they spent on it? Naheed points to NZ as an example of the company’s strategy. It was essentially sold at a loss.

But by all means, keep shouting at me lol. I don’t run the company you know. What I write here makes absolutely no difference to the outcome. All I can do is point out why the market cap is so low. It’s because the upside isn’t nearly as high as you think and the downside risk is far greater. And the company keeps basically saying this themselves if you read the accounts and RNSs carefully, but how many people who post here have actually read them all? Be honest please. How many of the people who put their hard earned in this have actually read the last 5 sets of accounts? I have.

Why do I post? I enjoy writing. I enjoy researching investments. I have a lot of experience that some people might find useful. And it helps me clarify my thoughts. So I don’t care that my posts are “lost in the mire” or that people keep criticising me. I write primarily for me.

But the rampers are determined that I either stop posting or write posts like these defending my own character, rather than focus on the company. Why is that? You guys have put your hard earned money on here. Aren’t you the least bit curious when someone with experience points the risks?

Nope. Ostrich investing only please.

That’s why I keep coming back. It’s utter astonishment.

1/

I didn’t intend to write something so long, but I enjoyed writing it and it kept flowing so it is what it is.

I was indeed invested in this and was very positive about its prospects. Just like others are now. I did looooads of research, posted it here and loads of likes. It was great. A little dopamine kick every time someone clicked that recommend button.

But despite my research the share price kept dropping. So eventually I took a step back and tried to understand why. That process has forever changed the way I invest. I sold out of ORCP and reinvested the money towards a property deal. I’ve made my money back, so no, I’m not bitter.

Yes I still hold UOG and EUA, which both predated this experience, but as far as AIM goes that’s it.

Last year when I watched ORCP fall victim to another P&D I very tactfully mentioned in here. Then a certain ramper here decided to write a long post essentially accusing me of trying to manipulate the board so I can buy back at a lower price. I told him on twitter that I thought the price was going back under .02 so he blocked me and posted some nasty stuff about me here.

Then i was proved right. The price went all the way back down. Did that feel good? Nope. When you’re negative on a share you get criticism on the way up and screamed at if you say I told you so on the way down.

So the next time I saw it undergo a P&D I decided to be more vocal. Why shouldn’t I? I know a lot about this company. Why shouldn’t I apply my research to write what’s true, not what’s popular?

That’s when I fully noticed just how toxic these boards are. You can write absolute rubbish here and get loads of likes, as long as it sounds positive. But if you write write a few simple facts that don’t sound as rosy, suddenly people call you names, accuse you of trying to buy in cheaper, question your motives, and read your entire history to find inconsistencies.

Why? Right is right. Who cares what motivates the guy who wrote it? what difference does that make to the outcome of your investment?

Meanwhile, people keep clicking recommend on positive posts and never question their motives. Could they be trying to get the share price up so they can feel more comfortable in their bad investment? Are they in full blown denial? Are they just stupid?

Some on here have been saying ORCP is a brilliant investment for years. They keep saying it will ten-bag from here. At every point. Even at 1.6p. The share price is down 99% since they started writing stuff like that. But at no point have they changed their mind one jot. At no point have they admitted to being wrong or writing misleading posts.

What do you make of that Paul? Read their posting history like you read mine and see it. Are they stupid? Insane? A paid ramper? Or or they so addicted to the dopamine rush of seeing their posts recommended that they’re fine with losing money to get it?

The fact that ignorant posts get so many likes while factual ones get nothing but hate, is one of the reasons I keep posting.

But you're right. Rampers gonna ramp ramp ramp regardless of facts.

So, Adi, you would prefer me to not point out to Steve, that the OVERALL grades are 0.4-0.6g/t, meaning that the fact that they found some decent nuggets here and there actually means that there are large parts of the asset where the grades are much lower, and it's the overall grades that count.

So the rampers want me to stop posting because it ruins their fantasy, and the sensible posters like yourself want me to stop posting because you think I'm above it. Is that what you're saying? So it doesn't really matter what you think of me as long as I stop posting facts making it harder for rampers to suck the unsuspecting into a bad investment. Gotcha.

Well Adi, I can only post a few facts and the situation as I see it.

If people choose to ignore the facts on the assumption that the person pointing them out has a vendetta, that’s on them.

If people keep posting their astonishment that the company isn’t worth billions yet, I might feel inclined to continue pointing out these facts.

To the people who keep arguing with me about how great NZ is, please read the following exert from Riversgold announcement:

The Northern Zone Project has an EXPLORATION TARGET of 200 to 250 million tonnes at a grade of 0.4 g/t to 0.6 g/t Au for an EXPLORATION TARGET of 2.5 to 4.8 million oz of gold, as announced by RGL to the ASX on the 9 May 2023. The potential quantity and grade of the Exploration Target is CONCEPTUAL IN NATURE.

There has been INSUFFICIENT EXPLORATION to estimate a Mineral Resource and it is UNCERTAIN if further exploration will result in the estimation of a Mineral Resource.

The reader is advised that an Exploration Target is based on existing drill results and geological observations from drilling as well as interpretation of multiple available datasets. The Exploration Target is based on historical and Oracle drilling results. It uses data from 53 historical drillholes drilled between 1998 and 2012, and 7 drillholes drilled by Oracle in 2021. Refer to Appendix 1 of the announcement dated 9 May 2023 for further information with respect to these exploration results.

Welcome to the dark side, Big K. Be prepared for the name-calling and accusations that the uninformed throw at anyone who doesn’t think this is the best investment since Berkshire.

People keep saying Thar is worth billions, but that’s in-situ value, not what Oracle could ever sell it for.

Thar Block VI contains over a billion tonnes of lignite, and on paper that’s worth tens of billions of dollars. But that’s just the value of the coal underground at market prices, without subtracting the billions it would cost to dig up, transport, and process it over decades.

Even if a fully funded mine were built the real project NPV might be $500M – $1Bn. Oracle would only ever get a small slice of that, maybe 5% because it holds an undeveloped licence, not a producing asset.

So a realistic sale price is probably £10 – 15 million, not hundreds of millions. It would still be a massive uplift on the current market cap, but nowhere near the fantasy valuations some people are quoting.

But bear in mind they’ve been trying to do something with Thar for almost 20 years, and so far it’s delivered nothing except about £18M of dilution at share prices much higher than today’s. These positive-sounding articles and “interest from big partners” stories are nothing new. We’ve seen this same cycle play out many times before.