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It's not "Jamaica or game over". We've only got 2 months left of the BP loan, after which we are making c £2.5M a year positive cash flow even after reinvestment in AS.
That leaves us with the potential to refinance at AS and buy another producing asset, and then leverage that oe to buy a third etc...
So even without Jamaica this is undervalued at £6M.
And if Jamaica does come off it's not "game over" but game changer.
She literally bought a hundred million shares at many multiples of todays share price.
LW, whatever you think of yourself, you are a deramper by definition. You have no investment here but continue to post negatively all day every day. That’s a deramper.
And to be frank you have certainly contributed to the negative perception of this share which has been a contributing factor to the sp being what it is today.
Let’s not beat ourselves up. Even naheed didn’t think it would be this low a year ago or she wouldn’t have been buying.
Why have they done that?
Jstar, thank you for your response, which I saw after my previous post.
Let me just say this.
I’ve been coming under fire for my positive views on the company (not the share price) and I do understand that. Yesterday sucked big time. But I’m not one to cry over spilled milk. All I think about is what happens next. And while I did not see yesterday coming that doesn’t stop me from continuing to think about what happens next, all the while knowing I could be wrong. Anybody can. But to be clear, what I write I write for me and nobody else.
What I’m seeing today and have been seeing for a long time is a complete refusal of those with a more negative view to even entertain the possibility of good things happening. I ask what if the agreement is signed and everyone says but it won’t, and refuse to answer the question.
This is what I’ve been encountering for a long time on this board and this is the reason I write the way I do. Im invested in a company that owns projects I believe in. But every time I say it, people who are not even invested here come along and point out negatives only, never even acknowledging the potential. And when I match their tone, I’m called out for being abusive.
So while im obviously unhappy about the share price and yesterday's placing, I can only think about the future. I understand that opinion is divided here, as it is everywhere, but if I’m talking to people who cannot imagine anything good ever happening, then we are talking across purposes and cannot have a sensible discussion.
Jstar, that’s exactly my point. If we don’t need the cash to fund operations the cash must be being used to progress the Gh project. That’s what I’m saying.
I do think the term abuse is being bandied around a lot. My posts are not different in tone than the ones written to me, but I don’t label that as abuse. Let’s not hyperbolise.
I’m just asking a question. If the offtake agreement is signed, what will happen to the sp? The responses so far have been, but it won’t happen. Ok, that’s an opinion. But I’m interested to know what you guys think will happen to the sp if it does happen.
Remember the sheikh owns about 75% of the gh project and UGA are owned the state which is run by his family. So in effect he’s almost negotiating with himself here. That’s why I feel fairly confident it will be signed. So. If it is signed, where will the sp be?
Gower, and everyone else actually, serious question. If we get the offtake agreement signed next month, what will happen to the share price?
All this time people have been complaining about non binding MOUs. If we get a binding off take agreement signed, would you not say the share price will start to go up?
Serious question. I am interested to see other peoples thoughts on that.
At any moment in time the only question is what the share price will be in the future. It’s pointless pointing at the past.
I do believe that under normal market conditions each bit of progress would have pushed the share price up some more. It’s the difficulty of raising cash in this market that keeps pushing us down.
Not that that helps….
As I pointed out on twitter last week (and was criticised for yesterday), our operational cash flow is c £300K every 6 months. That remains true. If we need to raise it’s because we need to invest more into the GH project to progress it further.
It’s a huge project and it takes cash to get it going. The negative posters were doing victory laps yesterday but in reality not one of them predicted a 50% discount either. None of us have a crystal ball. The negative posters simply don’t believe the project will happen at all. That’s not what yesterday showed. They jump on every bit of bad news and totally ignore any good news because they don’t think the project will happen. Yesterday was a gift for them to say I told you so (in retaliation for the terrible “abuse” I wrote when I pointed out that they have no financial interest here). It was indeed a punch in the gut. But it does suggest that the GH project is moving ahead.
We are expecting the offtake agreement to be signed at cop 28 and financial close next summer, with all stages necessary for that already completed by then. So yes, a lot comes down to how long will it be till we get an injection of cash, and what will the share price be after each stage is completed.
That’s basically what I thought was going to happen. I am shocked by todays placing. I was sure she would have waited another month….
What would be the effect on the share price of having our offtake agreement signed by UAE next month?
Would the market not react quite positively, such that even if there is further dilution, it would be at a higher price than today’s?
I don’t recall anyone saying this would teach £1, let alone £10. 10p was what Naheed said in interview and with 50% dilution since then I take that as 5p, which would suit me just fine. Not that that’s my prediction personally….
Here’s how I see it. Again, just my own opinion.
We have some massive projects being worked on. Pak needs them. There is demand. The UAE look set to sign the offtake agreement. The Chinese have already put their own money in by funding some of the studies, the Sheikh has put in over double what we have etc. So I believe this will be a big company one day.
But in the meantime we need cash to exist and progress these projects. Naheed has done what most AIM companies do – placings. I think she has deliberately kept the amounts small each time, thinking to herself, surely the market will recognise us for what we are before the next placing, why dilute too much so cheap? So she has done small placings each time. Turns out that was a mistake because the market is constantly worried about the next placing, which is by far the number 1 thing the negative posters have been saying.
Now the markets are terrible and we are too small to do anything but raise from equity. The IIs smell blood, know they have us over a barrel and have only agreed to a placing at a ridiculous discount. They have taken full advantage of this.
That’s my opinion. Personally, I will not be selling a single share. I might even add. Call me stupid, but I still believe in the projects. Again, this is my opinion only
Naheedout, you are right. I have been opinionated because I was so sure about this company and thought that the naysayers had an agenda they were trying to force on the board. I was never trying to manipulate, I was sharing my own thoughts only. I am truly shocked by this.
I'll be honest. This has caught me very much by surprise. I am shocked. I still need time to think as I can't understand the rationale behind this.
I have not tried to sucker anyone into a bad investment. I have only shared my own thoughts on a company I have investment my own hard earnt money in. My mistakes are my own. I, like all shareholders, am hurting today.
Currently in discussions with potential farm-in partners (plural) and expect to commence commercial discussions with a preferred partner (singular) in Q4.
Sounds to me like the indicative offers have already been made and United are now choosing which offer to proceed with.
This is extremely positive.