Member Info for GingerHippo

The share price reaction today is absolutely ridiculous.
The bashers have spent 2 years saying SYME is worthless because the concept is flawed. Now we have completed an actual transaction everyone should now admit that it's not worthless and we should move steadily up from here. To be flat today points to something dodgy.

LOL. unbelievably you can't say raicst on here either....

Copy and paste that link, and replace the **** with the 4 letters lse still think are ****** for some reason.......

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40196354/****stans-energy-landscape-to-be-based-on-indigenous-renewable-sources-says-dastgir

"Looks like they may have bad news that they do not want to release."

This is nonsense.
Why do so many AIM investors think the companies hold back news?
They're not allowed to do that.
If there was news they would have to tell us.
Since nothing has been released re AJ-14 tests, we know that they haven't finished the tests yet. That's all.
This can be for a variety of reasons, positive, negative and neutral.
It's completely pointless trying to read into it.

No news just means the tests are still being done.
It doesn't indicate anything good or bad.
Just chill for now.

Rift, I believe the exploration at ASF-1X targeting c.8.1 mmbbls could also cause a significant rerate (perhaps not quite a multibag though)

It could be the Shanghai Electric TB1 project (Block I)
Guess we'll find out tomorrow...

Just had a quick look through my post posts to find my calculations. Didn't find what I was looking for yet, but did find this. This was pre-suspension, pre-JV, per-war and a lot of other things but a nice trip down memory lane. Simple benchmarking to a deal that had already taken place.

The only problem with EUA that I can see is the biggee - the war that's not really a war but sure is killing lots of people. Of course that altered my view to an extent. But bear in mind that the following was before we got a JV of over 100Moz, MT resource update, WK expansion and the CPR on NKT. So I really don't think getting close to (or over) £1 is unrealistic. Again, this is benchmarked against a real deal that took place just a few years ago, when PGM prices were far lower.

GingerHippo

Posted in: EUA

Posts: 1,974

Price: 3.875

No Opinion

RE: 7822 Jan 2020 16:14
I'm a simple man, let's do the simple maths.

2M oz sold for about £600M. 15M oz should sell for £4.5B. Less a very generous £1B to construct the mine = £3.5B. Less 25% taxes and fees = £2.6B. 80% of which is EUA's = £2.1B. That's about 84p per share.

Can’t help but think the market hasn’t quite grasped today’s #SYME RNS.

Anyone not sure what “underway” means, I’ll provide the dictionary definition.

Underway - adjective

1 having started

https://twitter.com/GingerHippo2/status/1557008747129720832?s=20&t=H1OInkA1qortkqslnjpjQg

To spell it out even more clearly,
let's say we didn't do any exploration or spend on Maria and WM, we could have spent just $1.5M on the development wells, maybe less.
In which case from AB alone it would look like this:

Opening cash $0.4M
+ Net profit 1.7M
+ Add back depreciation 2.0M
- Capex (1.5M)
- BP (1.2M)
= Cash at end $1.4M

OK? Then you can see that AS would have made $1M extra cash in H1.

But you'd be complaining that we weren't reinvesting into the asset. You'd say, but how are we going to grow?
And you'd be right.
That's why we're spending our cash on exploration.

As I said before, figures are approximate:

Opening cash $0.4M
+ Net profit 1.7M
+ Add back depreciation 2.0M
+ Crown 1.5M
+ Selva 2.3
- Capex (2.9M)
- BP (1.2M)
= Cash at end $3.8M

So we made $3.4M cash ($4.6M free cash flow). $3.8 is indeed from divestments. So yes, all our profits (plus another $0.4M) were reinvested.

Included within that $2.9M capex is money spent on Maria, WM and the exploration well drilled in H1.
Again, if we didn't spend any cash on those 3 things we would have been cash positive from AS. But as an exploration company of course we are spending whatever money we have on exploration.

I'll repeat. If we only spent money on development, you would see a cash increase from AS alone, because it is profitable.
The reason you are not seeing a cash increase is because we spend money on EXPLORATION as well as development.
Please understand that.

I keep posting this chart because it shows clearly why we are spending on capex.
https://twitter.com/GingerHippo2/status/1555160926361362432?s=20&t=HzD8LctifNTJ2msDqcSx0g

"all funds go into new well drills to keep up with the decline of current ones"

As I've said many times, this is not correct.
We are drilling 5 wells this year. 3 are development (keeping up with the decline), 2 are exploration.
I don't understand why you guys keep ignoring this fact.

https://twitter.com/GingerHippo2/status/1555160926361362432?s=20&t=HzD8LctifNTJ2msDqcSx0g

In case it wasn't obvious.
Before this placing we had 2,896,479,558 shares.
We now issued another 181,818,182 shares.
That is a dilution of 6.28%
The shares weren't given away for free, they paid £500K for them.
Hence it makes sense for the share price to have gone down by less than 6.28%.
More than that is almost certainly down to selling pressure from Monecor.

But, let's be honest. Given what we are sitting on, it doesn't really make sense for the share price to go down at all. It's all just the market being the market. Something to be taken advantage of.

Wednesday: "Hurray! We got confirmation of a LOI!"
Friday: "Why aren't we worth a billion pounds yet?! What a failure"

https://twitter.com/GingerHippo2/status/1555160926361362432?s=20&t=HzD8LctifNTJ2msDqcSx0g

It's still a measly £11M market cap.
With two multi-billion pound projects (albeit not 100% owned by us), and a hundred million pound gold project.
Thar LOI can still land any time (especially with 11th JCC expected imminently).

She said in the recent Q&A she expects finance close to take about a year and then 3 years construction until we're up and running. Add a year or two for safety imo.

Owning 30% of a GH project should give us a market cap substantially higher than the £10M or so we are now. Substaaaaantially higher. Just need to have patience.

This is apart from Thar and NZ.

A billion pound company in the making.

Yes we do seem to have attracted some new bashers and FUD spreaders now.
Normally a good sign.

Naheed spoke about funding in the recent Q&A. Have a look on YouTube.