Member Info for GingerHippo

We spent cash on exploration that unfortunately didn't go as we hoped.
That's what happens with exploration companies.
Each exploration well is a risk. You win some you lose some.
Nobody would be complaining about the cash position if ASW had turned out as we had hoped.

If you're not willing to take the risks of exploration, maybe don't invest in an exploration company........?

Jamaica is very exciting.
I wonder how those posters who keep complaining about AS will feel if and when we get a good deal on WM............

At 800 bopd and $85 per we get c $5M revenue for H1 2023 (yes that includes the 57% EPGC).
Direct costs and depreciation c $1.5M.
So gross profit from AS of c $3.5M for H1
Admin costs c $1M
So net profit of c $2.5M, or about £2M.
That's for 6 months. So about £4M for the year.
Plus we're getting millions in profit from Maria.
For a market cap just over £7M. That's crazy.

So, to anyone who says AS is dead, please note that it is a profitable asset.
Of course this does not include capex. For good reason. Capex produces revenue in the future. Obviously if we stopped spending on capex we would just have the c $3.5M profit (and $3M next year and $2.5M the year after, etc) and that's it. But that would be stupid.

Very pleased with this.
I would be buying more at these very low prices if not for the fact that I've bought tens of millions on similar expectations in the past.
So I'm just sitting and waiting.
Hopefully my unrealised loss will turn into a huge gain before long.

Yet more evidence that the market doesn't value us appropriately.
£2.45 initial cash, £1M almost certain by the year end and the potential for £2.25M more.
Market cap up by less than £1M.
Doesn't make sense does it?

Looking forward to ASH-8. It has the potential to shut the bashers up.......... for a day maybe before they start with something else......
Everything to play for here.

Some like to throw around the term "lifestyle company" when they mean "taking a salary"
Maybe a little high but honestly not so much higher than similar sized companies. Certainly not so high that you can refer to this as a lifestyle company.
Some bashers here won't be happy unless they work for free........
Besides which, lifestyle companies normally stay in business through constant dilution, thereby literally taking more cash from PIs to support their salaries. That is not the case here.
But if you prefer the non-producing AIM O&G companies, with zero revenue, that are valued much higher than UOG and have annual dilution to keep the directors well paid, have at it. I don't care.

"Thyssenkrupp, as far as I'm aware, stay until completion."

Not just as far as you're aware. She said it clearly and emphatically in the presentation.
She said something like "I cannot overemphasise how much this derisks our project".

My opinion.
It's too small for IIs
and PIs remember it going to 1.6 and then dropping so are now sceptical.

Both will be kicking themselves when construction on the hydrogen plant is finished. But patient investors will have to wait 4 years or so for that.

Boots on the ground won't happen until financial close.
So at that point there should be no need for any dilution.

Obviously disappointing news this morning. I was sure ASH4 was not included in the guidance for 2022. Nevertheless, we still have minimal downside with massive upside. Kick in the teeth, but I won’t be selling a bean.

https://twitter.com/gingerhippo2/status/1595705316427055105?s=46&t=4Zg-wlRohi58SoGKUC7vSA

I agree with you, Zan that nobod knows either way.

Also agree with you, Mkx that Naheed is trying to get debt financing, not placing. Whether we'll need more cash before financial close I have no idea. Could be either way.

Bear in mind that there's a good chance of a JV being announced at NZ before financial close of the hydrogen project. That would do two things. 1) raise the share price and 2) necessitate a need for placing to pay our share of the JV.

It is obvious though the market is assuming that more placing is needed. Otherwise our current market cap makes zero sense. To be clear, even factoring in a lot of dilution it's still a crazy low market cap

If 1478 was the average for the entire year so far of Jan-Aug as you suggest, the average for Sep-Dec would have to be 1500 to make the full year guidance of 1450-1500 work. That's quite a jump from the 1256 you have for the months of Jul/Aug. And we know there was no production increase in Sep or Oct. Therefore, your figures simply do not add up and you have read the RNS wrong. This is very clear.

I'm not going to keep debating you when you are demonstrably wrong but won't accept it.

Now, when you have been mathematically proven wrong, the honourable thing to do is to back down and accept your mistake. But we all know you won't. Never mind, back in the filter bin you go anyway.

No biggee. Anyone who reads these posts can easily see how the figures work.

Have to unfilter to respond. Wonder why you were filtered in the first place?

It says as follows: "First half (1H) 2022 Group working interest production averaged 1,552 boepd net (1,290 bopd oil and 262 boepd gas). Group working interest production to 31 August averaged 1,478 boepd net."

It is giving two separate production figures. One for H1 and one for Jul+Aug.

What I'm saying makes sense considering the next line gives guidance for the year of 1450-1500. If you were correct, this would make no sense at all.

If you're not sure, please email the company before spreading FUD.

Oh wait, that's why you were filtered.....

It's worth noting that EOG currently has a total boepd of 318 and have a market cap of £11M.
ASH-4 by itself produces more than EOG does in total.
Think about that for a minute.

panda,
I believe it says H1 average was 1552
Average for Jul & Aug alone was 1478
That would make the average for Sep-Dec 1358 to get an average of 1475 for the year.
However, that doesn't include ASH-4 which adds about 40 to the average boepd for the year or 123 boepd for the 4 months Sep-Dec, making it 1481.
By that calculation, current boepd is c 1723 with ASH-4, and will be 1789 with AJ-14 soon.

Most institutions have policies against investing in nano cap. So getting from nano to micro is a tough slog. We’d have to go up over 400% before practically any insti will look at us.

To get there investment case has to be so overwhelmingly, mind-boggling obvious that nobody could possibly sell at such a stupid price. I believe it’s only a matter of time before that happens, and it will be gradual (unless we farm out WM, which would rocket us).

In the meantime we could triple in value and still be a nano stock, so I think there’s huge opportunity here for patient PIs to do very well.

https://twitter.com/gingerhippo2/status/1592933021162037249?s=46&t=1ZWnYdw4QITR3ViYwA1U6w

To give a sense of just how undervalued #UOG is, take a look at the net present value calculation of just the latest well, ASH-4.

By itself it’s worth c $17M, which is more than UOG’s entire market cap today.

The market is being extremely irrational here imo.

https://twitter.com/GingerHippo2/status/1592855202851610624?s=20&t=DuAIKKi5ye_rqFFi-JckqQ

panda, I didn't multiply the boepd by 90.
That would have given revenue of $55.8M.
I calculated revenue of c $18.5M

I'm always open to feedback on my calculations but would appreciate if you would check first please.

panda, I know all that and have incorporated them into my calculations.

35% decline seems too high, especially since we'll likely bring more production online next year. In fact I'm expecting production to go up overall. So I've been quite conservative with 10% decline.

Feel free to run the calculation yourself and we can discuss any differences.

Corrected. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/GingerHippo2/status/1592457388430594049?s=20&t=MGv3okS3Y-a9Ff9mdJsDXg