Member Info for GingerHippo

The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient

That's why I'm using an average over 5 years is useful, it removes the volatility. The revenue recognition issue is just a timing difference IMO.

I'm not thinking at all over what MW might know but haven't said. I'm ignoring the noise and focusing only on what I know.

@ggplyr I appreciate your comments as they force me to think.

The reason why I've used an annuity rather than 15 years is because I have no reason to think the company won't exist in 15 years so the shares will be worth more than nothing is 15 years time. I don't need to get my £7.58 (current price) back within 15 years, I only need to get back the difference in price now (£7.58) and the price in 15 years (who knows, but hopefully not 0).

4% is based on a current inflation rate of 3% plus a bit as a margin for error.

I believe this is conservative because I haven't included any earnings growth in my calculation.

Can someone tell me where I've gone wrong.

Average EPS for the last 5 years is $0.75. The DCF value for such an annuity at say 4% is $18.75, which is £15.55. So I make each share worth £15.55. Have I got that right?

All this predicting numbers plucked out of who knows where seems more akin to betting on the races than a sound investment strategy. If you think you got a bargain, just sit back and relax, no need to stare at the screen shouting "come on lucky 900! Daddy needs a new car"

Why the obsession over the minute-by-minute SP here? If you think you've got a bargain, just chill.

I'm a little surprised by the last couple of comments. WB's done just about OK for himself..........

All I'm saying is that I got in here too early but now that I'm here I can wait. No point me fussing over the SP every day

The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. Warren Buffett

If I may ask, how do ppl know when shorters are manipulating price as opposed to a stock being genuinely overvalued?

I ask as an idiot investor who dipped a toe in this morning.

It's not risk-free though. Barrick share price might fall (after recent large gains), the pound might rise (after reaching the lowest in 2 years) and gold prices might fall (after its recent large gains). Anything could happen. If all 3 happened at once, we might not even get £2.32.

Personally, I won't be selling just yet but I won't be buying any more either.

Well, I'm officially miffed. I've made a small profit but not commensurate with the level of risk. I still think ACA is worth way more than this, as MB knows. Given the choice I wouldn't sell at £2.31.

Oh well, you win some you lose some.

In my view, the share price is only important if you plan to sell. Otherwise the only valuation that matters is the real value of the company. If it's worth £3-3.50+ I won't be happy to sell for less. £2 today versus £3.50 in, say 2 years, is a no-brainer for me. Of course there's risk, but that is always true when I invest.

Plus, MB has more to worry about here than me. My career or reputation isn't potentially on the line because of this....

ACA don't have enough cash to cover a decent dividend, especially if they'll have to pay out $300 to GoT as part of the settlement.

271 is still too low imo. Even if Barrick were to offer 271 it can still be rejected (as would be my preference).

This is like waiting for Brexit to happen. MB for PM...?

If it's coming it will be after 4:30

Does anyone know on what date arbitration is due to begin?

Also ppl saying how disappointed they are in MB for a lowball offer. Why? He’s a businessman, he’s trying to get a good deal. Are you disappointed in a lion for chasing a gazelle?

If the offers too low, reject it. End of story. If I offered you £5k for your brand new Mercedes you wouldn’t be disappointed in me, you'd just laugh and say no. That’s how I see this.

I feel like this is very much the problem here. They gave a lowball offer and stuck to it long enough for some people to adjust their expectations. All that is irrelevant. It’s about how much the company is worth. If the company is worth £3 a share why on earth should we sell for anything less?!

Just because it’s the only offer on the table right now?! To be frank, the idea of investing in a company on the grounds that it will be bought out is ludicrous. That’s not a sound investment strategy. I only invested here because I thought the company was undervalued and would be worth more soon by themselves, not by being bought out. I was never waiting fir a knight in shining armour to rescue the company. The company is profitable. I believe the legal issue will be resolved and the company will do well. I’m not relying on MB. I would be very unhappy to sell my shares for £2 when I think they’re worth £3. Everything that’s happened so far are just words. They don’t affect my view of the company.

Of course I could be wrong about the value of the company. That’s true for every company I’ve invested in. But I’m not sitting here waiting fir MB that’s for sure.