Member Info for GingerHippo

Investing can be an emotional rollacoaster. I totally understand why someone would want to be out of investing forever. Part of the cruelty is that the sp can easily fall to below ppl’s stop loss and then make an extraordinary rise right after that. Who knows? Anything can happen. Like I said, cruel.

I have no idea what the sp will be in a month or a year. That’s why I don’t speculate on the price. I do know what the financial statements say, and they say that net assets alone are worth 4 times the current market cap.

I’m not a fortune teller. I have no idea how long it will take for the sp to reflect the true value of this business. But I believe that I have my maths right and that eventually the sp will reflect that. I’ll hold on as long as it takes. The only reason I’d sell now is if I discover an error in my calculations. All imo. Dyor.

1) who said anything about a month?
2) many ppl who reinvest their 25% will lose it somewhere else
3) £2.61 to £15 in ten years is a very respectable average annual return.

I agree that many ppl would sell for £5. I believe those ppl will kick themselves some months or years later (as I have done when I have taken a 25% rise and ran in the past, only to see the sp keep creeping up without me).

Let me put in another way. I believe that it will be possible to sell these shares for at least £15 sometime in the next 10 years. That’s a return of somewhat more than 25%

25%?! Shares can and do go up way more than. Why do you allow a crazy stock market to make your valuation decisions for you?

Reminds me of another Buffett quote. If you’re only looking at the share price, you’re not investing, you’re speculating.

Gary, can I buy a twenty off you for a fiver?

These shares are worth at least £15 why on Earth would I be happy to sell for £5? The current sp is irrelevant to me.

And btw that’s why I’d be miffed by a takeover bid. I want to keep these shares for years, perhaps decades. I have no interest in selling my shares at all.

In my experience if I had always sold when I was slightly in the red I would have never made anything. To invest you have to be prepared to see your stock go down significantly without worrying because the market is crazy at times. If you’ve done your research and believe you’ve come to a sensible conclusion this shouldn’t be a problem.

I think a lot of posters are thinking very short term. As Buffett says if you’re not prepared to hold your investment for 10 years don’t invest for 10 minutes.

Share price is only important if you want to buy or sell shares. I intend to do neither now. I have already bought shares and see this as a promising business. The question to me is, if the business is worth say £2B today what will it be worth in 10 years?

The share price seems to me totally disconnected to reality. Metros net assets alone is £1.76B, and they are making money and expanding. A market cap of £400M or so is a bargain imo. But that’s not the same as expecting the sp to increase this year. Who cares? If you can’t hold your shares more than a few months (weeks?) you shouldn’t have invested at all. But as part owner of a successful and growing bank, I’m pretty happy with what I’m seeing.

Will, be honest. If the sp rose to £8 today would you really sell? Really? Or would you relax and say good job I got in when I did, this will now rise to £15 like it should?

Is this a bargain? Net assets of about £30Bn, market cap of just £25Bn and EPS of about £2.50 for each share currently priced at £17.75. I haven’t done proper research yet but at first glance it looks like a good opportunity. Is there reason to think AAL are about to start making losses that would justify the low share price?

“financial judgements should be based on current information”

Current information is unreliable at best, misleading, sometimes completely wrong.

If there is an external market for it then it should be recognised in the accounts. It would be wrong not to.

But if they were able to sell 10% now it is clearly worth money despite that risk

Not Burgers, silly auto correct - Burford

I don’t get the problem with the Peterson case. Burgers sold to an independent investor 10% of their future winnings for £100M, so it seems fair to value the entire winnings at £1B, of which Burford still have just over 60%. What could be wrong with that?

I assume that’s what they meant, it just sounded funny.

“No other bank has halved in value in 6 weeks”

I don’t know what the intention here was but I chuckled. Think 2008.

I assume you don’t mean this has never happened to a bank before.

Pick a company, any company, and look at the 52 week high and 52 week low. You’ll see a lot of volatility.

That doesn’t mean I think it will be US listed. Frankly I don’t really care

Wow. Such impatience. Do you really expect to be able to buy shares at £7.70 one day and sell for £15 the next day? Or even week or month? Get real. Dyor and calm down

If you go to the shop and find an item you want for 50% off, would you buy it or wait to see if you can get it for 60% off a week later? I think most of us would buy it. If next week it is at 60% off does that mean last week it wasn’t a bargain? Of course not. Last week was a good bargain, this weeks an even better bargain