RE: A confusion to be put right19 Jan 2020 16:25
@John112334
Not at all, I am a massive fan of the business model and think that this Company could do extremely well over the next few years. BUT I was only talking about the P&L account for 2020.
If my cost estimates are broadly correct (and I freely admit that I have had to guess just about everything) and the fees are split with SLIM then ALGW are unlikely to be at break-even until the AUM is at about £500 million and the performance of BOAGF gets to about 10%. Mr Gobind Sahney gave ball park figures for AUM as $100 million (£77 million) this year and $250 million (£190 million) in 2021. Let's hope he was being cautious and we do much better than that but even then the AUM is unlikely to reach £500 million ($650 million) before 2022.
Of course the actual present day profitability of the company only has a small bearing on it's share price as that is all about perceived future performance.
IMO the future actual profitability of ALGW , and by that I mean 2023 and on, is fantastic. The fees earned on the first £500 million of AUM should pay all the costs but after that it's all JAM :)
Using my figures (and again I must point out that these are all guesses) when ALGW has £1 billion of AUM, which is perfectly achievable by 2024, the fee income should be in excess of £15 million and the Gross Profit nearly £9 million.
Someone said a few days back that it's possible that SLIM will not be a part of this soon. If this is the case and ALGW get the whole fee then break-even comes in early 2022 and fee income of £15 million in 2023 or earlier if acquiring AUM goes faster than the $100 million this year and $250 million next.
I see no reason why the sp shouldn't hit 10p this year even with a 37% dilution and, as for next year, it could reach 30p. If there are 350 million shares by then (+75 million each year) that gives a Market cap. of the £100 million that Danny Swick spoke of as his target and we might expect a buy out.
N.B. This is all pure speculation and I am certainly not recommending that anyone risks any money on my say so.