.6 Mar 2022 11:33
Chances of all out military conflict breaking out between NATO and Russia? Zero, or very close to - neither side wants it, both sides are desperate to avoid it and both sides worry about what it would lead to.Chances of a wider conflict breaking out, ie, Putin will take Ukraine then invade more Eastern European countries? Slight possibility but it's unlikely given the worldwide condemnation he's already received and the crippling sanctions. He's under immense pressure and will be losing the appetite to further the conflict. Chances this will lead to nuclear war/WW3? zero, or very close to. Russia has used nuclear threats before - whilst we should take the threats seriously, there's almost no chance Putin will follow through on his threats - Russia would also be destroyed in the process of course as it would result in devasting nuclear retaliation by NATO. When you take all possibilities into consideration, by far the most likely outcome is the conflict will burn itself out over the course of the next few weeks/months. As for the markets, recovery usually starts early when it comes to military conflict - stocks will begin to bounce at the earliest signs the conflict may soon be over. Provided Evraz doesn't get sanctioned (seems highly unlikely now) then there's a really good chance of seeing a full recovery once the conflict is over, back to pre-crisis levels (£5 to £6+) Yes we could argue stocks with exposure to Russia is "one for the brave" at the moment, but Evraz (and Poly) are really quite low risk when you weigh the situation properly - and of course both offer tremendous upside potential from the current price.
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