Member Info for Ghia

It's interesting watching the narrative swinging in SNG's favour.

Many of us here for a long time have been putting forward a big picture view that puts SNG firmly centre stage as a broad spectrum anti viral a first line of defence to tackle what gets thrown at us.

This view is based on an ever increasing body of scientific evidence, it gets stronger by the day.

Finally the tide seems to be turning with the people that hold the power watch out for shift away from vaccines towards therapeutics.

TheAimInvestor - No what I meant to say was exactly what I said.

Also it's not about the number of markets it's about the value of those markets.

By that metric both companies are targeting a similar size of market.

Interesting to see what the main market brings for TILS hopefully a bit of stability as the tracker funds take a stake.

Org - Hang in there it's these stressful phases where most will get bored dip out and then miss the moves.

TheAimInvestor - The CMO from Regeneron went to TILS because his experience is aligned with TILS he has little experience of use to SNG who already has Sir Holgate overseeing the science.

TILS and SNG are different kettles of fish SNG end game is much sooner than TILS, Billion £ valuation will be seen sooner with SNG than TILS IMO.

But both have products that are Multi Billion £ potential hence why both are worth having in your portfolio.

Ref Q2 for results it's not clear if that was full results for the entire P2 trial which is both Hospital and at Home or if it was for just the additional at Home results.

It's plausible there may be an interim readout for the at Home before the final write up, but unlikely.

I get the feeling they want to plough on with the P3 and the at Home might be a distraction they'd rather have after any initial review of the P3.

It appears mention of Q2 has put a few people off, purely because it implies results for P3 will also not be until Q2 at the earliest, but I don't think that is strictly the case.

Frustrating period currently so much good news but a stubborn share price.

It’s sad it has come to this. I really did not expect for us to be so far into this crisis and still jumping through hoops. At this stage what is there to loose by giving SNG an EUA?

I could understand why in June we didn’t get EUA because cases where dropping it was less of an urgency.

But we are now in the middle of a worse second wave with a treatment that has the best results of any treatment trialed to date, it’s a terrible but perfect storm for SNG.

If the Home Trial comes back good how can they not give EUA.

Beforegolf - a lot of this game is luck and no one ever tells you the ones they mess up.

I first bought SNG at 60p and bought it all the way down to 35p so my initial entry at the time could have been a lot better.

Also on manic Monday I had a massive massive long position open and I closed it in the morning at 90p!!! Another terrible decision...

Something I’ve found that works well is to have a list of stocks you have researched well that you would consider buying into and then just wait for periods of panic and lulls in mood.

ODX and GDR are both probably pretty good entry points right now based on recent highs and lows.

Beforegolf -

I did really well out GDR bought at 26p sold at 180p, it was once one of my favourite covid plays and I thought it would be a really strong player.

However they have really messed it up. First mover advantage is one thing but they are not even in the game yet and that’s really disappointing. The contracts for testing are getting signed left right and centre and the market place is bustling with providers.

I’d also be a bit concerned that you have a semi conflict in your holdings if ODX pull their finger out and get their Mologic antigen tests selling that would eat into the same market as GDR.

Personally I’d be looking to back one of those horses.

But that’s just an opinion.

85% SNG
5% NCYT
5% TILS
5% ABDP

I know the valuation thing is a bit of fun and we all like to ponder and extrapolate. For me it has been very simple for a long period of time.

Is this a £1billion+ drug? I firmly believe it is therefore the share price is worth at least £5.

That’s a 3x gain on today’s price and was more than a 5x gain when this dipped below a £1.

It’s a no brainier for me which is why I continue to snaffle up every share I can.

Sure we can justify why it could be valued at way beyond £5 but I’ll save those calculations for once we have some news from the P3 trial.

Good luck everyone.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/norway-warns-of-vaccination-risks-for-sick-patients-over-80

People seem to be understanding now that both treatments and vaccines will be required to get through this.

To add to this analysis it would be worth reviewing the entry requirements of SG016 vs SG018

Also remember the availability of PCR tests was restricted during the first trial, often 48hours or longer before results where known.

This may or may not have had an impact on recruitment rate I remember the trial criteria being strict on time since first symptoms and positive PCR received. This was due to the worry of causing a storm if the patient was later on in the infection cycle.

I guess this is less of a worry now.

Engineer also, typically our profession tends to find solutions to problems... just saying.

Hi Sterland - Did they tell you a patient number or was this a question you asked your assigned nurse?

Good luck on the trial I hope you get the good stuff!

You need to own 6mil shares to be above the 3% threshold.

We placed just under 46mil shares so if the placing was split between 8 or more II’s they would all be under the reporting threshold.

Perfectly feasible.

Dumbpunter - please stop spreading fake news!!!

The COPD trial had a pre-selected pool of patients who all suffered from COPD if they naturally developed a rhinovirus they would then be dosed in the trial.

The trial had almost completed before covid struck. It was paused sensibly because the pool of patients would be most vulnerable to covid 19 and it was not desirable to remove them from shielding to continue the trial.

It was hoped that if they caught covid naturally that they could be doses under the COPD trial.

The company then sought to access the almost complete trial data to assist in EUA approval for Covid. The regulator granted them access to the data and as you can see the the interim analysis the data was good.

At this point in time they chose to accelerate the focus on covid since the prevalence of the virus and the impact it was having on the globe.

COPD is certainly not forgotten.

CW25 - The Kansas University clip specifically said IFN- Beta that was the first time I had heard anything more specific than just IFN from a credible source.

Assuming she is not on placebo... can’t help but feel sorry for the unlucky 305.

It’s a June completion date because they don’t want to make a rod for their own backs.

Trying to guess the completion date for a trial is very difficult.

At the current infection rate they could recruit the 200 UK patients in a matter of weeks. This is where we see if Paraxel are worth the money.

And to think this was only 80p a few weeks ago :)