Member Info for Ghia

Mani - You say it’s pointless in debating poly yet it was you and Tommy that where presenting causality of their average, I merely presented an alternate theory that their average means nowt to the PI.

That’s the point broadening the view.

As for collaboration I have collaborated with no one here my opinions are my own and where people have had genuine information I have supported their post.

I’ve backed up all of my posts stating that I believe this will be commercialised and a trial will be the inflection that reverses the value.

Tommy - I’m trying to get people to look at the broad picture rather than the narrow view.

You can then make an informed decision.

My personal belief is we will find a way of trialing the drug and it will get commercialised but it may require dilution.

But this is not guaranteed and there is certainly no rule that the price TFG will get is available to all.

Spent the start of the week at a fintech incubator fascinating the different approaches to funding and growth.

Tommy - interesting you Choose to view this as a negative when I meant it as a positive.

“they didn’t say the data was statistically significant” even though the table showed it was“

Mani - Excuse me? I’m not sure what you are accusing me of? I’ve explained what my point was you can choose to join the debate or ignore it but drop the act.

Size - But they could put an offer in at X having paid Y for 30% the importance to the Pi is the ratio between the two.

It all hinges on the perceived value in the retail base.

Mani - I answered that if you look at my original post I was responding to the assumption that because TFG have an average of 90p all PI’s will at least see 90p per share return in the event of a takeover.

I presented one possible situation where this may not be realistic.

I’m not claiming that this is what is going to happen but it’s feasible and possible and has been done several times before.

What do we know about TFG’s shares?

-They are the largest single % holder
-They are poised on the threshold that would force an offer
-It will not be sold on the open market

If it’s not sold on the open market at the point of the transaction the share price bid and offer are irrelevant. It will be placed off book as one lump and no matter what price is paid it will not at the point of transaction effect the share price.

So this is my point it matters not what TfG achieve for their shares it matters what the remaining 60% of the share holding primarily retail decide to do.

I’m not saying in the event of a move by a player effecting a takeover we are destined to be sold cheaply.

I’m just saying the price TFG achieve for their asset is not directly linked.

They might achieve many multiples of the PI because they hold the power it is likely to be more expensive to remove TFG than a bunch of retail investors.

This view is a broad picture view, eyes off the table look up and see what strategy is out there.

Hold - I agree Poly are here to make money the point is explain to me how poly making money guarantees the rest of us do?

Mani and Tommy - Straight question for you both why does poly’s a average have any bearing on what a retail investor might achieve in a buyout situation?

Enlighten me with your naivety if you may.

Tommy - Tour comment on the significance of polys average suggests you don’t understand the position they have put themselves in and why.

Sorry response was to docd not doc83.

Doc - If you look at the volume on the day of P3 there was enough churn for everyone to have gotten out if they desired. 85mil volume or similar.

People on that day could have got in roughly between 13 and 30p

New entrants have had the opportunity to further average down.

My point was there are LTH’s here on high averages but probably many new entrants on much lower ones. Or repeat entrants. We should be mindful of that as the months role on.

I’m confident the asset will be developed but not so sure in which company it will belong too at that time.

Aether - posts crossed but similar notions.

Mani - perhaps you should not assume the motives of the average Pi invested in SNG align to yours.

Step out of your shoes and look at all the possibilities.

*I’m not saying that 35p is feasible price

But I am saying that it’s likely the average PI here is not underwater and has an entry price significantly lower than many of the regular posters on this board.

The churn after P3 was significant.

We can only guess at polys motives, they have positioned themselves in a seat of power and will look after their own 30% but they won’t care about the remaining 70% their very existence might even be to make the final 70% as cheep as possible.

Food for thought.

Fruits - What else is there in Jansens drug pipeline that would potentially pair nicely as a combination therapy with SNG001…

Tommy - I was merely pointing out the obvious, the reason why our value was X previously was due to the anticipated commercialisation route.

We fell short for reasons everyone knows.

We no longer have an active commercialisation roadmap hence our current SP, despite all the risk factors which have reduced with the data recently delivered.

So yes I’m theory when we have a new commercialisation road map defined we should be in a significantly better position to previously.

We do however have to define that road map which I hope the current board are capable of doing.

Tommy - More precisely in January we had a clearly defined commercialisation route which hinged on the success of Sprinter P3.

As I am sure you are well aware it is not just any trial we need but one that hits the commercial boxes.

Just highlights the missed opportunity, the correct trial would have had us across the line by now.

Whatever happens next they must learn from past experiences.

The science backs up a call for further funding and second attack at the correct trial. Would be more comfortable if the weight of a major player assisted on this final phase.

Up to RM&co to deliver a commercialisation strategy with the lowest perceived risk, that will put a rocket under the share price, until then we will drift.

Size82 - I agree with the entirety of your post.

Just one thing that bothers me and I don't have an answer.

Why if the pharma would be prepared to enter into a JV to fund a targeted trial do they not do it now in time for this winter season instead of waiting till the next.

You'd want to be launching a trial Oct/Nov to take advantage of the Jan/Feb surge.

Poly are not going to make a bid they have positioned themselves in a position of power such that an interested party would engage them prior to making their own bid.

Said party can accumulate on the open market till the 3% threshold without revealing themselves. They can negotiate with poly the asking price for their chunk.

Execute that trade and make their offer for the remainder of the company.

It’s the most cost effective way of taking the company.

If it came to that.

Personally recon JV much more likely.