Member Info for Ghia

Mani - If you want to hold RM to his winter comment that’s fine by me I was suggesting if winter comes and goes I wouldn’t be surprised.

Just like Summer has come and gone for active.

Is RM at fault no he was commenting on events that are very much out of his control.

They can do their best to pull the levers they have it may materialise that their levers just aren’t big enough.

This is the crux of the issue Tommy it’s not about sides or teams or who supports who.

It’s about allowing people to put forward reasoned arguments for discussion and responding to those arguments with reasoned responses.

Scinv asks some awkward and difficult questions at times as do others.

It seems when they are too awkward to answer they get attacked.

Tommy - Your arrogance astounds me if you think Scinv is a joke.

He raises questions and observations that are difficult to answer that does not make him a joke.

He was right about many things relating to sprinter.

I also predict he is correct about how the COPD trial closed but we are yet to have concrete confirmation on that.

He questioned day 8data when we where not in possession of all the facts we now have more info perhaps he will soften his stance.

But to call them a joke because they ask challenging questions and promote debate is baffling.

That explains the drop…!

Gunto - I’d argue that’s the reason you want to believe for the increase in bickering.

What do we know about Strive? It will enrol 1 agent at launch, said agent will be announced after trial has begun.

News on strive could quite easily fall in October in fact I suspect it will.

The bickering is due to frustration from LTH’s who rise to the repeated bate of the wind ups.

Doc - All correspondence I have seen coming out of Activ suggests they are still crunching numbers. Given that we’ve recently received updated results from our own COPD study a year on and activ was a multi arm multi drug behemoth of a trial no surprise in it taking ages.

I’m aligned with you RM’s winter comment should be taken with a pinch of salt. The agm required him to put a line in the sand he put a suitably vague one in that could change.

Mani - That’s a long list but only a few of the items add value.

The concise value adding list is:

- Place on PT if it happens
- Dosing in winter if it happens

Everything else is just academic.

Billy - Sorry to hear about your situation, I think many here will have stories along the same vein I’ve had similar mishaps in the past.

This is just my opinion but there are several factors at play here:

- Science behind the drug which is firming up all the time reducing risk
- A global situation that is ebbing away from covid dominance and trending back to pre pandemic behaviours
- an increased awareness around respiratory issues and a market that is potentially underserved
- reducing cash reserves in the company increasing risk

The reason we have seen zero traction on the news received thus far is it does not remove the outstanding risk.

The primary risk that is front and centre of investors is if we do not get onto a funded trial the company does not currently have the cash to continue.

If we land a funded trial that risk disappears and we have an attractive proposition and todays risk reward looks very favourable, in fact better now than it did in August.

There is the outside chance of a JV or takeover.

Question you have to ask yourself is if this was to go to zero would the additional loss be untenable. If the answer to that is no, you are likely to get a better price the longer you hold. Just my opinion.

Billy - I think the truth is Andy doesn’t know nor care much about strive etc.

I don’t blame him either he is a trader which is fine if that’s what you want to do.

It didn’t take a trader to see that there was/is the potential news vacuum here and what that would do to the SP.

Notice how the usual positive posters stopped referencing dates a while back and edged out their horizons says everything you need to know about conviction of comments.

Everyone is hoping for a PT trial and ideally this year but that’s far from certain.

Personally I’ve always felt early next year is when we are likely to get traction.

The biggest risk here is lack of trial, that is out of the companies hands unless they come back to market. It’s not a nice position to be in but I’m confident they are pulling their limited selection of levers to get results.

Todays data is significant because it removes one element of risk that until now had been a theory.

SNG have proven in the human body via clinical trial under the correct protocols that SNG001 has anti viral properties that accelerate the clearing of virus in the lower respiratory tract FACT.

Until this data set everything previously was a theory to be proven by trial in real world settings.

How do we move on from here we all know the answer we need a trial with the correct endpoints and the correct power.

The remaining risk in this share is that that trial never materialises we will not realise value here until we have clarity on the trial(s) and funding of the trial(s)

Full circle to previous comments UNIVERSAL is due diligence on market size, if the market is there which as others surmise it looks like it should be (rhino, ifi, covid etc.) then JV route highly likely.

But wouldn’t it be nice to bag a PT before then.

AnthonyW - I’m sorry perhaps my posts are not clear but I have not said SNG will be trialed on UNIVERSAL.

I’m suggesting the output from the observation will be used to tailor a trial which will hit the sweet spot, max benefit for the patient, max benefit for health service.

The resulting trial may have many candidate drugs this observational study is the justification for the financial backing for such a trial.

It’s clearly spelled out in the trial objectives.

Primary:
To develop phenotypic characterisation of the heterogeneous nature of acute respiratory viral infection and recovery seen in patients admitted to hospital with respiratory symptoms.

(Observe how people are effected)

Secondary:
To enable accurate stratification of patients for optimal design of future studies of novel pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatment strategies.

(Identify who needs help from drugs and who doesn’t and a link to why, design trials to target subgroups identified)

Health care Cost estimate for each patient.

(Size the business opportunity)

To provide co-ordinated link to the central facility for sample storage.

(Ensure good quality data base for decision making AI analysis etc TopMd?)

Tertiary:
To enable a precision medicine strategy through detection of immune and inflammatory biomarkers associated with virus type and disease trajectory.

(Target the drug where there is a fire to put out, low volume high margin best cost benefit for health services)

Mani - Care to attempt to articulate what the purpose of UNIVERSAL is?

What is non-rational about suggesting the outcome of UNIVERSAL will be used to drive the design of future drug trials?

Isn’t that exactly what it is geared to do? If you have something enlightening to share please do.

Doc - Agreed I can’t help but feel a lot depends on how virulent this winter period Nov-April turns out.

These PT’s need some momentum to sustain them.

Doc - It may not have been intended as an insurance policy but it may now act as one.

I assume the hope for universal is to identify one maybe several factors that increase a patients risk to serious complications from respiratory viruses in general.

Someone who fares badly with Covid might also tend to suffer worse bouts of flu etc etc.

If they can identify a solid trend and identify a theoretical addressable market, that sizes the opportunity. Off the back of which a targeted trial could be designed for drugs such as SNG.

If the market is big enough there will be a huge appetite to fund such trials. If the market is not so big because the sub group turns out to be quite specific and small the opportunity diminishes and funding will be harder to come by.

Looks like a lot of constructive conversation has taken place today can I take a minute to refine my previous theory.

This observational study is a due diligence exercise by the named pharma IMO. With major pharma involvement who have Influence do not be surprised if this fills a lot quicker than the stated 12months. I’m sure they can easily find 1000 patients across the broad spectrum they are looking at. Also note that each patient is in the process for I think 26days so they are not looking at anything like long covid over a period of 6months year etc. No drug is being taken so patients might be more inclined to sign up. Etc etc

I now refer to comments I have made previously about covid being route one. A PT for covid is the fastest route to approval IMO RM drug dosing comments are highly likely linked to a PT such as Strive or similar.

As I have always stated I’m looking to next year for significant momentum building, the tail end of this year is about regrouping and sowing the seeds.

The Universal seed will hopefully produce data that justifies a trial if we have justification for a trial the Pharma will fund us.

This move is an insurance policy to guard against failure to access a PT covid trial or gaining access but the PT trial failing to complete or retain funding etc.

Strive is already seeing delays I would not be confident that it will complete everything that gets enrolled.

Gunto - I was suggesting that when the observational study suggests that patient cohort X is most likely to require medical assistance when a viral infection is caught.

The resulting P3 trial required of however many 1000 patients or less to prove efficacy of SNG in use against this cohort will be funded via JV. Removing the need to come to market for money.

Wpa5 - I think given the history here with AZN this is a 1000patient sample so that J&J and AZN can size the scale of the opportunity.

No treatment just observation so they can produce a data set of how left unassisted people fair. With a comprehensive data set you could then look at various sub groups and try and spot trends.

If there is a trend that identifies a large pool of patients that sizes the scale of the opportunity.

You then design a trial to specifically target that and then prove out efficacy of SNG.

Southampton have a number of specialist technologies for identification, stratification etc so great place to run the trial.

The pharma will JV on this trial providing the numbers are favourable from this observational study.

If the observational study falls short they will move on very low risk for them.

What this provides is an opportunity to avoid a cash call in 12months from a weak position.

Dunk - ultimately though if you read all comments at face value here they have a better read on the share price and the other cohort have a better read on the science.

Long term we have some interesting opportunities if we can convert on the data

Gunto - Of those stats how many died of covid vs with covid.

Excess deaths has been tracking at <2500 for some time now based on the average of the last 5 years.

Big question is how many of those excess deaths are due to delayed treatment and diagnosis of other ailments due to covid bottlenecks.

Excess deaths April2020 (11k)
Excess deaths Jan 21 (6k)
Excess deaths Jan 22(1.6k)

The data suggests a situation not getting worse, although not clear if it is rolling average playing a part too.

The data sets for excess deaths are readily available.