Member Info for ggrantsu

I disagree. If news starts suddenly coming out about Poly trading in Russia...the situation fundamentally changes. If I were Poly as the one company still unscathed on the LSE, and wanted to keep my position there, the last thing I'd do is start to become a presence on the Moscow Exchange.

I'm not trying to scare...I want to make a fortune from this. But I'm highly worried about this and no one can just brush this off.

I luckily sold before market close for other risk reasons. However, this information has obviously not been made public...if it had been I'm sure a ton of other people would have sold. The whole thing is completely bizarre to be honest...wondering if it is a first step by the company in trying to move from the LSE permanently over to Moscow exchange? But then why on earth would they do that when they have BlackRock and others increasing their positions quietly? I can guarantee they will be speaking to those investors regularly.

Honestly I am completely flummoxed as to the dynamics at play here. Come on team - lets get some views on the table, this is important.

Astounded that the company is going ahead with this move...

Up to everyone here how they view this and want to play it but thought I'd share because for me this is a very material piece of info. And it overrides my BlackRock holding info and the positive progress with Orcel.

If I were the UK government looking at this, I'd be thinking this looks far more of a company that has strong ties to Russia and if they want to trade there, then they can bugger off the LSE. Not good. Interested to hear other opinions...

Hi Team - just had it confirmed by Investor Relations that Poly will be back trading on Moex on Monday or Tuesday. I personally think this is a huge negative for the stock and gives terrible optics. Frustrating as so much positive stuff with new chairman and BlackRock increasing holdings. But honestly not encouraged by the Moex listing at all...makes the Group look much more Russian which is important in this environment.

Viewing this as a lot more risky off the back of this.

I personally think you are spot on. People on this board seem to think Moex trading is a good thing....I think the optics are terrible and I'm praying it does not happen. I think sanctions would ensue immediately.

oldtrader - there is a lot going on with institutions in the background here. And very important institutions.

The fact Nesis hasn't been touched, Poly managed to get Orcel on board and then these moves by big institutions says to me that there are conversations going on in the background which are along the lines of 'Poly will be allowed to proceed'. Probably a question of optics if you want my opinion. Evraz was just to unpalatable with the large dividends potentially going to Abramovich and other oligarchs who owned a large percentage. Nesis, who is a different league from RA, and his 12% is just not such a headache. I can tell you for free...BlackRock and their political connections can tell Number 10 that they want this stock left untouched by UK sanctions. Orcel is also the most connected rainmaker inn Europe (or one of them).

I may be wrong...and was nervous enough to sell out over the weekend. But I think the higher echelons have perhaps already decided the fate of this stellar company. Interested for other views.

https://twitter.com/Seb53475186/status/1507390927857500161/photo/1

Clever thoughts...posted this on another thread with intention you should see. Was very interested to see what you thought and if impacted your opinion.

Although highly bullish I also see the primary risk as being Nesis being sanctioned. However...he is a big fish and its very late on in the game. He is a far bigger fish than 90% of those already hit with sanctions. I guess question is....what is the catalyst for it finally happening now?

Clever thoughts....interested to get your view on this and if it changes your opinion at all? (Not trying to get a reaction...although we disagree on buy vs. sell, you make good contributions and highlight relevant risks that are not over dramatic in my view)

Guys - I setup quick twitter post to show you.

https://twitter.com/Seb53475186/status/1507390927857500161/photo/1

correct me if I'm missing something

https://twitter.com/Seb53475186/status/1507390927857500161/photo/1

All - i have put this on twitter for you so everyone can see

75% way there with the view that if Poly was going to suffer direct sanctioning it would have already done so. Actually surprising that they haven't gone for Nesis...but would be surprised if they did now this late in the game.

It's so tough...absolutely loving the stock and can see it at 2000 if we get through all this. But yesterday, today and the upcoming weekend news flow have not been great. Was too nervous to keep holding through the weekend...but long as no negative news I'll be back in Monday. Realistically, the two sanctions they can go for from here are on Nesis (unlikely) or directly on the Company with the argument that any gold sales to Russia are helping the war machine. Logical part of my brain says we are all good but it also said that with Evraz!

I can't find an email for them. This is ridiculous

what is going on here??!! The Moex is now open and they are still releasing NAV's at fair value?!!

This is very intriguing....why the delay in NAV update?

Yup you are spot on. It's a pretty incredible opportunity and a nice structure given the shareholders voted massively in favor of continuing the trust at the AGM recently.

Less stressful holding this than Poly or Evraz...but still stressful!

Hi mate. Interesting there isn't more focus on this opportunity on this board. I've been a Poly and Evraz investor but got into this the day before yesterday as thought the re-opening of Moex would be a positive. Have no-one to speak to about it ha but I'm thinking surely today they will have to change valuation method and if they do this is going to the moon?

yes - just started posting today after looking at the board for weeks...good to read others opinions through this journey from all different sources. hopefully not having a posting history on this board doesn't mean I'm not allowed to finally chime in with my two cents...that would seem a little bit 1930s Germany.

For the record....bloomberg is showing that, I'm not lying. Just trying to figure out how I can screenshot on this chat forum for you all to see. If you know let me know so I can do so!

My other point for the evening is just to keep in mind the investment bank broker reports on this stock only three weeks ago. Price targets averaged 2000...with some going much higher. It wasn't just respected for it's financial performance and impressive dividend yield...it was considered best in class in terms of operations and how it was run.

I'm not panglossian about Poly. I've been shocked at how politics has overtaken everything with this business; all logic and sense has been thrown out the window. It was the same with Evraz (was invested there also). It's a risky play but the fundamentals are really bloody fantastic with Poly and Evraz. I know from working in institutional investment how stacked the odds are against retail investors, this is one of the few moments in capital markets when we could potentially win big time.

Orcel as chairman is an enormous move forward...he wouldn't step into that role for a pay packet offer. He would need to know the prospects politically are more favourable versus Evraz. I can see in ream time that BlackRock has upped their position...I'm shocked that I can see but it's what I'm seeing. A risky investment...but there are movements in the background here which are adding to the investment case alongside the once-in-a-lifetime fundamentals.

Another point also for the board. Not only did I work for BlackRock in the past (so I do know how they buy Clever Thoughts)...I know the gravitas of the Orcel brothers. This more than anything is what made me buy the stock again a few days ago after his appointment as Chair.

The Orcel's are probably two of the biggest heavy weight M&A dealmakers in Europe. There is no-one more serious than either of them...and no-one more concerned about their reputations amongst investment banks and corporates. The fact he took the position of chairman on really really surprised me. He must feel very confident that the Group has bright prospects ahead.