Member Info for Gerry65

tiger - read the sky news article, you mention.

i note many are suggesting what may or may not be wrong doings from various bod's, i guess any potential evidence will ultimately find itself on the desk of the appropriate powers that be. It will then be for any regulators to assess the position.

others are suggesting what they would do next if they were various parties / bods, bb's are often enjoyable reads, are they not.

interesting comment re your view on many business reputations that are to be ruined, again i'll wait to see.

I'll sit and watch things pan out, am quite relaxed whatever the outcome, have a balanced portfolio, of quality FTSE 100 & 250 shares as the major part of my uk investments though i like to play, with a small % of my S &S ISA with recovery and aim shares. Made a nice return on FLYB in Nov on a small in and out trade. To be honest i followed one of your colleagues in the FCA group Moniman in with a trade on FLYB, at just over 10p, however i sold out the same day and took my profit on the deal.

I note its the view of the FCA group that 8.00 am on the 11th Jan, is the agreed cut off date for their proposed compensation claims, effectively that puts Tinker in the opposing camp does it not ?

As Tinker was busy snapping up those share sold off by pi's on the Connect t/o news rns later that morning.

Does that follow in your view that in those circumstances, if pi's and Hosking, are in the same camp, Tinker is in the opposing camp to Hosking ?

Gosh its getting complicated, i'm sure all will become clear,as the days, weeks and months pass.

I have no crystal ball so make no predictions as to what comes next. Although i was not invested, i recall, a similar shareholders, action group formed on the demise of CLLN - what a chaotic mess that bod made of things, parliamentary committees to attend etc to explain themselves, all over the national news with accusations of corporate failing, i believe corporate fraud was even levied by some,made interesting tv, though i'm not sure any shareholder compensation has been forthcoming from that shambles.

I generally feel for the lth's over on FLYB that decided to hold firm on years of grim rns news, less so for those that bought up their shares, when they fell to sub 9p on the up for the sale news, and held through nov to Jan for their multi bags, possibly to be caught out by their greed.

Many of these guys are in the FCA group, screaming that the bod of flyb has let them down, they weren't in the least concerned that the shares they picked up cheap at the time originally belonged to genuine lth's who also lost out, big time. but that's share trading for you.

I wonder if it had turned out differently, and those hyped bids, of 30p / 50p / 90p etc, had come to pass, would they have donated their winnings to charity?

Interesting times ahead.

gla

tiger - like many have read the flybe bb with interest, over recent weeks.

like most i still don't know how serious flyb's cashflow position had become - i'm sure all will become clear over the coming days weeks and months.

i'm sure like all STOB shareholders, no one wants to see others suffering loses, are you down much may i ask ? what was your average over there ?

anyone can go long or short on any company, lots of opportunities out there either way, to make positive or negative calls, we are all different and all have different views on all investment decisions, its what makes investing so interesting.

i guess if there was any corporate failings by the flyb bod it will be identified over the coming months by the powers that be.

i would be surprised if Branson would allow himself to become party to any corporate mis dealings, but hey, who knows, i'll read the financial press on this one and see what comes to pass.

like most i await more info on Tinker's plans. i did read one post from a contributor to the FCA group, suggesting only shareholders as at 8.00 am on the 11th should be included in any potential compensation claims. wouldn't that exclude Tinker ?

it's a complex situation, many over on the flyb bb are feeling extremely angry, i try to play with a straight bat, so if there is any wrong doing identified and proven then it needs to be dealt with. if there is no legal wrong doing then so be it.

i'm quite relaxed on the deal, if goes ahead, then the Connect consortium will have many decisions to take in respect of flyb, retaining profitable areas and reviewing loss many areas. So far in excess of £100m has been earmarked for the project. Personally as a STOB shareholder i am looking forward to the forthcoming capital review.

i don't profess to have any corporate legal skills, i'll leave that to the flyb fca group, Hosking partners, Tinker, maybe and anyone else who wishes to throw their hat into the ring.

interesting times for all !

compass - agree so much to look forward to at STOB with the capital review, across each division of the group. much to come with Stobart Aviation, Stobart Energy, progress at Carlisle airport, and the projected increase in passenger numbers at Southend Airport where the group has advised produce income at £10 EBITDA per passenger.

turning to the Flybe bid, i also feel for lth's who held on over the years, hoping for better times despite the continuing grim news on financial rns. i got out in Aug 2015 over there as i couldn't see where or how it was going to turn around. but i still say there were opportunities to escape over the last 2 / 3 years, probably, with a loss in some cases.

when flybe published the "up for sale" rns back in nov. the sp fell to sub 9p, initially, and could easily have fallen further. however rampers grabbed hold of it and hyped it up some calculations of bids from 30p to 90p just looked totally unrealistic imv.

skilled rampers devise clever posts full of facts and figures, to encourage the scam, and probably got out way before the shit hit the fan. ( i made a nice trade on the hype over there in and out in one day in november based on the change in sentiment, but i wasn't hanging around ).

i see many that were involved in the hype are joining the FCA group, as to whether there was any wrong going legally, that's for time to tell. i suspect the flybe bod had all their bases covered legally.

i just wonder if the career rampers who may have lost funds this time round would have donated profits to charity, if there had been a different outcome, and they managed a bag or three, based on a reported bidding war !! i very much doubt it.

all of those ( me included) who bought in at 9p + in nov. did so by picking up shares from lth's who sold at a loss, that's how trading shares works.

those that held for a bag, lost out due to greed. regrettably they sucked in some less experienced investors who got caught up in the hype.

clearly its now a blame game, and the connect consortium is seen as one of the bad guys.however £100m is required to salvage as much as is possible from flybe operations. to date there have been no other bids.

if it is a done deal, i suspect the connect consortium has its hands full, particularly in the short term, like all t/o's all parts of flybe will need to be reviewed, profitable parts will stay other unprofitable areas will have to go if they can't be turned round.

i've no crystal ball, so there may be further twists and turns, to come, on this one, how the end game will look for those holding flyb shares will become clear over coming days and weeks.

gla

blimey Baxter, even you are dismayed, not good.

watch out for a few posts from duster over the weekend

obone - correct more newbies sucked in this week !

i see even some lth's who have previously been supportive, have moved to the dark side.

gla

To the newbies who bought in over the last few days at plus .4p this week and were predicting an sp surge.

Welcome to the world of CH and AST,

Congrats CH that's more pi's captured.

Re watch the pod cast, when CH was specifically asked what shareholder's in AST should do !!!

A cringe worthy few moments. Clearly he had already planned the raise to allow him to return to full pay !!

GL

lejib - i did call it in our brief discussion on here on Tues eve !

a placing was clearly coming, AST needs to raise funds to achieve even small steps forward.

CH couldn't wait till as the finals are to be published at the end of Apl.

The clue was in the pod cast CH's lips were moving !!

To raise before any permit news at .30p does not bode well for the actual cash position, in the bank, only 3 months to find out how grim things are cashflow wise.

Lets see how much is raised and what CH does with it

GLA

lejib - dec 2018 finals will be published at the end of Apl.

100k euros per month may be enough to keep the lights on, but this company will imo need to raise more cash, to move forward with any substantial plans.

I would imagine that CH is pinning his hopes on permit news before the finals are published to enable him to raise cash.

Not long to wait for the financials - i suspect they will make an interesting read.

gla

flightman - you may want to re check that monthly revenue figure you quote.

Yes flyb BB is very toxic atm, understandably.

Posters blaming everyone and anyone for the position they find themselves in.

I got out of flyb in aug 2015, it's been facing headwinds for years, lth's there have had many opportunities to escape over the months and years, clearly many held on hoping for an upturn in flyb fortunes, regrettably that upturn did not come to pass.

Although some long term holders are still posting over on flyb, a high % appear to be those, who bought in on the hype following the up for sale rns. I did trade it once on the 23rd Nov was in and out quickly, made a few quid on the back of the rampers could have made more but wasn't up for that sort of risk.

Many got caught up in the hype, over the last couple months, flyb fell to sub 9p on the sale news, it was hype that took it back up to the 20's. The problems at flyb where there in black and white in many rns.

I suspect that if a different outcome had come to pass and a sale was secured at 30p - 80p as some rampers had predicted there would have been much back patting and self congratulations.

No one likes to see people losing their investment, but it was really a punt over there imv.

Not sure it's fair to levy any blame on STOB or any part of the consortium looking to pick up the pieces, for the position flyb pi's find themselves in. The flyb BOD put the company up for sell. So far there has only been one offer.

If a better offer was to come into the table so be it.

Interesting times.

Gla

volcano - i tend to use Southampton and Gatwick, as i'm based in the south, hence why i bought in and out of flyb a few years ago.

i've read as much as i can on Southend as i am long on STOB, and i believe it is an excellent part if the group overall. the future growth figures at Southend airport over the coming years are very exciting.

i generally invest circa 90 - 95%of my portfolio in solid growth and income shares with 5 -10% available to trade in more risky positions. there are quite a few rampers that appear on bb's, in a herd, to hype shares in certain circumstances on news and rumour. on occasions i'll trade in and out when sentiment is high. but i don't hang around too long, as often quick sp rises, all too often result in the sp falling back just as quick.

over the last 6 months or so i've closed out quite a few positions, to build a cash pile as we move towards brexit, i am expecting to snap up a few bargains in the new tax year.

enjoy your weekend.

gla

Flyb has been in trouble for some time now - I got out in early Aug 2015 for circa 90p.

I did trade it in late Nov. as the rampers were all over Flyb at the time, I was in and out in a day for a nice little trade, and to be honest i could have held for quite a bit more, but i felt it was too risky, and was happy with my profit over there.

One extra benefit of the offer for sale of Flyb over the last couple months and the link to STOB was the opportunity to trade STOB. Several times STOB bounced off of circa 150p, i took 2 in and out trades, there were more but i didn't want to push my luck.

I've held my free carry shares in STOB, now we need to let the dust settle and see how everything pans out.

There's lots of consternation over on the Flyb bb today ( not unsurprisingly ), the 1p share offer has not gone down well, particularly when many rampers were throwing Buy out predictions at 30p - 80p etc.

The offer still has to be voted through,so still some twists and turns to come. Some PI's over on Flyb are even suggesting a PI buy out ! Although the headline 1p offer is not going down well, understandably.

One does need to consider the additional funds that will be required to get Flyb on a level footing. A £20M bridging loan for working capital and operational requirements. Followed by up to £80 million of further funding to the Combined Group to invest in its business and support its growth.

I'll not post over on the Flyb bb as its a bit toxic at the moment, but the above figures do indicate the scale of the problems, that have to be resolved.

The Flyb BOD is coming in for some flack today from PI's though it was clear from the Trading RNS's and the operational updates together with the 14th Nov, formal sale RNS, that Flyb was in trouble and needed serious financial support, to continue trading.

The Flyb sp fell to below 9p in mid Nov, when the facts were laid bare, it was only hype and ramping that pushed it back up again.

Like all on these bb's i don't have a crystal ball, i intend reading as much commentary on the proposed deal over the coming days.

GLA

Doni - the 3 month charts for both BAB & BAE like many UK companies show a similar trend, ( Oct - Dec 2018 ).

I was wondering why you were linking the two co's SP's for the bottom for BAB.

I've often looked at BAB / BAE & MGGT, and traded in and out of both BAB & MGGT, but not BAE.

Looking at BAB v BAE there are a number of comparisons to consider IMO

BAE Mcap - £14.7Bn based on 3,188.55m shares in issue
Net Asset position in last finals - £4.784 Bn
Earnings per share - 26.80
Dividend per share - 21.50
Yield - 4.65 %

BAB Mcap - £2.5Bn based on 505.60m shares in issue
Net Asset position in last finals - £2.9 Bn
Earnings per share - 66.60
Dividend per share - 28.50
Yield - 5.76%

Both companies have had 5 years of growing Revenues, profits, and dividends.
BAE's div looks tight against earnings, in comparison to BAB.
Both companies have a fair sized Intangible Assets in their respective accounts though BAE's at £10.378 Bn seems massive.
BAB's SP is trading at a discount to its Net asset position, BAE's SP trades at a massive surplus to it's Net asset position.
Another issue I tend to factor in are the two companies pension shortfall positions. I believe BAB has all but cleared it's pension shortfall back in March 2018 when its deficit was only £5m on assets in the scheme of circa £4,7 Bn. On the other hand BAE still has a pension deficit of circa £5.9 Bn !! on the latest figure i could find.

There are clearly many other factors to take into consideration, when deciding where to invest, BAE with it's Mcap sits easily within the FTSE 100, whereas BAB would need quite a re rate to regain FTSE 100 status. Future order books are another area where brokers and analysts focus attention.

Like all on here my crystal ball is a little cloudy at the moment so I am making no SP predictions for 2019 lol.

GLA

Stockdale - time as they say is a great healer.

Like all on here I have no crystal ball so can only surmise the outcome for AST.

I remain a keen follower of AST, which has given me some nice trading opportunities in the past, as to what the future holds for pi's here, is anyone's guess.

Gla

stockdale - i was one that raised the issue of concession extensions, as you may recall during our posting conversations back in aug and sept.

about the same time as you poo pooed my view that the spike back over 1p at that time looked to me to be an opportunity for pi's to escape with at least some of there investment.

the concession extension risk was highlighted by AST in the Dec 2017 finals rns ( 17.4.18 ) under "principle risks and uncertainties"

i raised this concern based on the repeated delays in permitting, as something to bear in mind for the future !

as you know i've only ever traded this one in the past, but with he downward sp trend, political situation, large sp spread and lack of confidence and sentiment, its one to avoid imo. - far too risky for a day trader like me.

i continue to read posts on here with interest though.

best wishes to all involved here.

02khalil - like many i guess i am sitting on the sidelines, on a watching brief, considering an entry point.

ref your post - 16.02 - re reducing CAPEX to improve the balance sheet, i wonder if you could help me with a couple of concerns.

i've taken a look at the financials for the Aug 2018 yr end, and see that the present mcap at say 1.82bn is almost 7 times the net asset position of £439m

i see the intangibles figure in the annuals has increased from £64m - £258m in the last 4 years.

do you have an understanding of what is represented by this figure, as its now a fair chunk of the assets of the company, and has some bearing on the co's net asset position.

i see from the recent trading statement that ASOS hopes to return to a free cashflow positive position in FY 20 - which i felt was a little vague.

anyway i look forward to your views on these points. a positive reply clarifying the position would be helpful.

kind regards.

gla

sorry jack - should have read 12 - 13 co's with lower mcap than ITV.

Jack Nicholson - had a quick check and there look to be 12 l / 13 co's with a smaller mcap than ITV on the FTSE 100.

Volcano - most bb's have posters with a glass half full view.

Seen it all over these boards, to be fair I am less than enthusiastic on some shares at the moment.

It's been fun reading such negative posts on many a share, vod, tsco and mks over recent months and the responses to name a few. Though on CLLN he was right !

With trump and his on off Twitter trade posts, and Brexit uncertainty it's not too difficult to knock some shares at the moment. The FTSE has dropped below 6800 today down 2.5% as I type, STOB is having a good day in comparison to many.

To be fair to moniman he has been posting negatively here for a little while. He has stated he wants to buy in but at the moment these shares are too expensive for him.

He's mainly focused on his FLYB investment atm. Though it's not having a particularly good week over there since the day traders sold off - down curca 12% today.

STOB has done the right thing - reduce the generous div, and divert future non strategic asset sells into projects that are aligned to the company's further plans.

I guess many of us set up limit orders, but posting to advise people, is a bit overthetop.. I had a neighbour once who worked in the city who often stated down our local that he could move markets in his day job. Maybe he could, who knows, but he didn't make many friends, as he rarely stood his round !

I'm holding here for free, so am happy as we move towards our winter of discontent.

Most of my FTSE div shares are red today, so what do I know lol.

Gla

Bradis - I fully agree.

I have stated several times in the past that I hold 90 - 95% of my private investments in FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 div shares. With circa 5% available to trade aim shares, mainly for the fun if it.

It does worry me when posters get wrapped up in a single aim share, having bought in on whatever research they felt was adequate. Often you will see no other posts in their posting history on other opportunities. This doesn't necessarily mean they don't have a balanced portfolio, of course but I believe often thus is the case.

Over the last 6-9 months, I have been reducing the number of different shares in my portfolio, taking profits and building a cash pile, so at the moment I'm holding in just over 20 companies.

I took the view that with Brexit uncertainty and grumpy trumpy pumpy out there twittering about his on off trade deals markets would be spooked. We are in volatile times.

At the moment mm's seem to take any piece of even slightly negative news to bash shares. The FTSE has dropped below 6800 today, by april, it could go anywhere. Up down or sideways. But I believe there will be great bargains to be scouped up over coming months.

Returning to AST I will continue to read the debates on here with interest.

Gla