Member Info for Gerry65

stockdale if there is no news and the sp drops to 0.4 p why would this be a better time to buy ?

am sure reso can speak for himself but each day without clarity is one day closer to lights out,

some may feel that a lower entry is a positive, personally, my position whilst out on the side lines will be to wait for more news. its only my own view, others can make their own decisions.

i notice you didn't enter into my debate with rxdav earlier today ( well apart from a quick snipe at me lol ).

did you look into my thoughts re slovenian gas for the slovenian people - was my 6% figure for households connected to gas supply correct ?

the gas could be used to alter the present structure of slovenia's overall energy supply, but i suggested there would costs involved.

we agree on something though - its gas to croatia, though at lower revenue returns as untreated gas to any company extracting it.

based on AST production losses for the 6 months to june 2018 end, perhaps up to say 20 wells may need to be in production, based on depletion levels seen with pg -10. so the 2 outstanding well re entry permits are just the tip of the iceberg, regular permits will be required probably on a monthly basis.

so something will have to change with the permitting process.

maybe tomorrow will bring more news.

gla

stockdale posters were encouraging others to buy at 2.4 p then at 2 p in the past.

anyone who bought in on those recommendations and didn't average down but still hold now need the sp to rise by 500% and 400% to recover their cash.

i would guess that those that traded it on the previous drop in Aug are probably out having taken their profits.

what % of holders here do you think are holding a paper profit ? not many i suspect.

those under water can - sell up if they feel its game over and reclaim some money or hold and wait for more news and hope the sp holds up in the meantime.

your third option - buy more - in blind faith - really - are you still topping up this week ?

no one posting here should be encouraging others on either of the three options at the moment imv. by all means put forward thoughts for debate though that's fine.

as to decisions people eventually take - that should be down to personal choice at this juncture.

gla

Rxdav - yes have read your posts on angs over the months. I regularly trade the weald shares and like many hope for positive outcomes whilst enjoying the ride.

With ASTi hadn't foresen the present state of affairs, though I remained thoughtful as to what was agreed in the aug ARSO meeting it was after all reported third hand to pi's via the conference call and 2nd r n s by CH.

It's been my experience in life that often two parties at a meeting come away with differing views of what has been agreed. People can sometimes hear what they hoped to hear. I wondered if there had been a mis communication as we moved through sept now Oct has gone and we welcome in Nov. And the situation remains as confused as ever imo.

Hopefully it will all be a huge mistaken translation, and everything will come good both for day traders and LTHs.

Gla

Rxdv - my guess would be Croatia. Been suggested many times on here by a number of long standing posters for whom I have the utmost respect even though I have a glass half full view on AST and how it's been managed.

To achieve commercial production viability it will need many more wells in production, school requiring regular re stimulation - which will require regular permits. Sold untreated its value is less of course to the extractor.
I don't see Germany for example saying to the naughty Russians - we are very unhappy with you so we won't take your gas - and imo the Russians welcome the income sales if their gas achieves. Though I except nothing is certain in this world.

Rxdv - agree with you on how much to put I to the e mail.

However I have 2 points.: Should the Slovenians look to move more towards a natural gas supply as opposed to their present structure there are likely to be infrastructure costs are there not ?

Second point - russian gas is cheap and is gratefully excepted by the majority of EU countries. It suits both sides, the Russians on supply and the EU countries for there demand needs. To date despite many political issues, neither side has wished to bring gas supply into the political game. Yes kick out a few ambassadors, but not gas.

Stockdale - sorry for the detail - I know it doesn't suit your agenda, but I guess you knew this info being a l t h. I believe circa 6% of households Slovenia have a connected gas supply, those figures may be a little out of date, perhaps with your intensive research you could provide an update.

Don't rely on me - as you know I only day trade AST.

rxdav - any gas that could be produced with say 20 wells in production being regularly re stimulated, with a processing plant built could possibly add gas into the overall slovenian energy supply.

however slovenia has quite a low % requirement for gas in its overall energy supply, figures vary but say bet 1000- 1100 million M3 / annum.

more likely the route is to croatia without the need for the processing plant.less profitable of course for any company extracting the gas though.

slovenia has all the gas it needs from present supply routes including most eu countries cheap russian gas.

what would it do with ll the additional gas, maybe look to restructure its overall energy supply as some suggest, reducing its reliance on other forms of energy ?

how costly could this be in the short term - that's a genuine question - i don't know the answer.

the statement - bringing gas to the slovenian people suggests to me households, it was my understanding that only a small % slovenian homes are actually connected to a gas supply.

as someone in a previous property here in the uk without a gas supply, i can advise the costs to achieve gas to my property were very high.

not sure many of the general population of slovenia would want to take on this cost.

WHYAST - the anger on here over the last couple days, will surely have encouraged many to e mail.

regrettably some posters on here vent their views quite forcefully, i guess believing that insults are the way to force others to move towards their own position.

god knows what has been sent to the powers that be, maybe a check back over posts on here over the last few days may give you some clues.

i would also consider how the legal threat on the latest r n s will have been received over in slovenia. it looks like a complete breakdown in meaningful communications.

heels digging in on both sides i suspect.

reso - agree it would have been angry pi's - can't see many admitting this to WHYAST though.

sells at sub 0.5p now - should be the trigger for day traders to take their profit i suspect, unless there is an afternoon rally.

One or two urging others to buy at 0.8p + yesterday, have miraculously traded down this morning and are still on a break even !

Who to trust on here !!

gla

Scully - good trade this morning. Should be an interesting next few days

there were several posters on here who raised their concerns at the ongoing delays, and urged caution.

which naturally leads to those invested rejecting glass half full views as they wish to protect their position.

often this turns to ramping ( and de ramping ). in my experience on aim, and i have said this on here, often rampers can lose people more money than de rampers.

i like everyone do not know how this will pan out, maybe the share should be suspended as some say, many may decide enough is enough and sell up, others may look to buy on a dip.

i have traded this in the past but think i'll stay on the sidelines for the moment. anything could happen.

from posts so far, i don't see anyone who had doubts, taking any pleasure in this situation, ( though i suspect the opposite would be the case if news was different ).

gla

I was surprised that there was very little commentary on the results this week.

Perhaps the UK markets were too involved in the DEB results, and views on the rest of the retail sector.

Last broker update over one month ago.

That said - RDI have done what they do - got on with business.

Interim div at 1.35p, coming at the end of the year.

Am happy holding with an average now below 32p, will take the div and pick up more shares.

gla

Just got offered 0.752p to buy on a dummy trade, which i declined.

Not sure where the SP will end up at close though.

Looks like recent disharmony on the bb over the last couple days, has encouraged a few to up sticks today.

Or perhaps its some seeing November creeping on the horizon.

Not tradeable at the moment, needs news, or rumour !

gla

Obone - you give me more credit than is due, I genuinely don't have an insight into the thoughts of the Slovenian authorities.

Their actions to date have not shown a huge desire to move this project forwards at any pace would you not agree ?

Any thoughts on why ?

Let's hope tomorrow brings some news.

gla

Hi EC - It's my understanding that the Russian gas contract is to supply 600 million cubic meters annually to the Slovenians.

Not sure how much of the existing gas supply could be replaced by gas from AST if all existing permit stumbling blocks could be over come. A long standing poster mentioned to me back in Sept that perhaps 10% could be achievable, not sure what time frames he had in mind.

Do you agree that two present wells created a 6 month operational loss of £600K, and that both now are in real need of re stimulation ?

AST need the present well permits, but any party in the SR will not just be thinking about PG - 10 and PG - 11a, but the numerous additional wells that need to be bought online, to create a sustainable gas supply. How many permits are likely to be required annually based on depletion levels from PG -10 as a guideline ?

Looks like re stimulation for each well bought online could be every 6 - 9 months.

Unless ARSO change their permitting process, that looks like a continuous, ongoing permit challenge moving forward would you not agree ?

Have you any additional thoughts or views on the present delays in permitting agreements, and also why things may improve in the future ?

Do you feel the Slovenians, want to move things forward as their actions to date kinda make me wonder.

Am hopeful for a positive RNS on permits soon as i hope to get a least one more day trade out of this.

gla

Gino good to hear you are not underwater here.

We will have to agree to differ.

If i was invested i'd welcome facts to support bullish posts, who wouldn't ?

That would take the ramp out of peoples posts would it not.

To my knowledge no factual data has been provided on these points. As i've said i day trade so - its news rumour and sentiment, pushing trading volumes for me.

I can rest assured that as a glass half empty type of guy on AST, no one can suggest that they have been seduced into AST on any of my posts lol.

In my view, on balance one can lose more money listening to, then investing on the back of rampty posts than listening to the less enthused. ( yes we all have an agenda ).

It seems its fine to post positive blue sky comments , as its what the majority wish to hear, whilst we all stand on the stern of the AST Titanic.

Lets hope an RNS lifeboat comes our way soon,its what everyone wants, after all.

However, if one deems it right to challenge positive posts to dig out the facts, its unacceptable -hey ho.

gla

Gino73 - just got back in and online - see your post to me ( today 08.17 ).

forgive me - imo you have your thought process back to front. ( i am guessing you are holding AST shares btw ).

I respond to posters who put forward views, and ask them to justify their comments with facts and data.

Again this morning it was WHYAST1605 who suggested that home produced gas would be less expensive and more reliable than Russian gas. This has been raised before on this bb. ( present Russian gas contract to produce 600 million cubic meters annually is a five deal contract running till 1st Jan 2023 ).

My post asked for financial data to back up the proposed savings. I also put forward my thoughts on how many wells may be required to produce sustainable gas production and asked people to consider (based on pg - 10 ) how many permits for re stimulation will be required on an ongoing basis.

Not unreasonable imo to ask posters to provide back up data, to support their posts,and I only trade AST looking to get in and out quickly on news, rumour and sentiment.

We all find these AIM shares in different ways - and no doubt you have done your research, but I suspect many buy in based on over enthusiastic posts on bb's. Many have been seduced into AST based on posts on this bb, imo.

If positive posts are backed up with facts - surely that would be good news for you Gino73, - wouldn't it ?

Don't you think you too should be asking for factual data too - after all if you are probably invested, wouldn't it help bolster your investment decision.

best wishes

gla

time to go to gym to chill will look in later

sorry typing quickly gas - not oil lol

WHYAST1605 - you have raised this many times, as yet you haven't provided a cogent reply to my previous posts regarding replacing russian oil.

slovenia have a reliable source of gas, the present contract for russian supply ( signed off 13th april 2018 ) a five year deal until 1st jan 2023, providing 600 million cubic meters annually.

you mention that slovenia is missing out based on - cost, may i ask you again to provide detail on the terms of the present russian contract, together with your savings by using gas supplied by AST.

moving on to reliability, its my understanding that the russian gas supply is reliable, how many wells would need to be brought into production to produce a sustainable supply, based on depletion levels seen with pg - 10. it needed re stimulation within a 6 - 9 month timeframe, its permit for re stimulation has been outstanding for over 12 months.

more wells online = more permit requests, these seem extremely difficult to secure. to date the actions of the slovrnian's do not suggest they are in any rush to replace any rusdian oil with home produced oil.

why is that in your opinion ?