Member Info for Gerry65

birddog816 / TF - I've still to re read the Finals in greater detail, Though I notice you both seem a little down on Southend Airport.

It might be worth considering what has been spent to transform Southend Airport, I doubt either of you will bother but try googling pics of the Airport 10 - 15 years ago and look at what STOB have achieved there.

The development, and amazing improvements, don't come for free, and whilst the considerable cap ex is being spent, it will show as loss making in the Accounts, will it not.

So what do we have - an Energy Division, which is pretty much moving forward again, following Covid 19, and an Airport, acting presently as a large car park for a number of planes. Though TF - did you see this comment deep in the report :

"However, perhaps the biggest boon to our long-term non-aeronautical revenues was the commencement of operations to support the import and export of goods at our new global logistics operation in October 2019".

So the way forward has been mapped out -
1) Covid 19 has to be resolved, if it isn't re opening Southend Airport will be the least of all our issues. Assuming the Airport re opens, I'd say you'd have to add one at least a year to the 5 years plan.
2) Ditch the Civil Division
3) Create shareholder value from the Energy Division, over the next 24 months
4) Selectively sell off the non core assets, ( not a fire sale TF - not needed with funding in place ).
5} Sit back chill and pour yourself a little tipple lol

Think the timing Finals and the Funding landed fortunately for STOB, with the sp, still floating around 47p as I type, with the market closing on a very positive week. One could expect a little sp drift on a bad week.

G

Hi Moni - only just got back in to sit down and have a little shift through today's STOB posts, when I went out this morning I said to myself - expect one one Moni lol

Think most even minded individuals, would whilst acknowledging the FLYB administration issues, say that Covid19, and it's impact initially on the Energy Division and a Southend Airport, has had the largest impact. As it is having with many Company's atm. At least STOB are out front,and perhaps ahead of the pack, with their refinancing and restructuring.

I'm sure many more Company's will need to undertake similar fundraising as we progress through the next 12 - 18 months or so. With STOB I don't believe many can have been too surprised. Watch out for many shocks and bumps in the road for many Company's and their shareholders, as time passes.

My Free Carry shares are are actually worth more today than they were on the 23rd March, when they were sitting at under 29p, though they have I'll acknowledge been higher lol.

G

Hi Tav - There is a lot to read in those two rns. The raising of additional funds through a combination of additional bank facilities and equity, was not unexpected.

I've read the Full Year Results through once - and will take a closer look again this afternoon. Have a bike ride planned shortly.

It appears that the future will be fully focused on Aviation.

Exit from the Rail & Civils business during the course of FY21. then the aim will be to" Realise value from the Energy business as a maturing, cash generative and stable business. This business is starting to benefit from a restart in the construction sector and is likely to be attractive to strategic partners and infrastructure investors and we will look to monetise value for shareholders over the next 18 to 24 months".

Interesting the Company's largest shareholder TOSCA acquired 82.5M of the new shares in the placing, increasing its interest in the enlarged total share capital of STOB to 27.56 %. TOSCA must be expecting a decent return from the sale of the Energy Division, and the future of Southend Airport, to support its increased investment.

Open offer of 2 for every 15 shares held. Expect volatility over the coming days and weeks.

I'd expect the odd one or two negative posts on here, hopefully not one liners though , which we'll no doubt get,as they don't add value. Be much more fun to have an actual debate based on a detailed assessment of the present position and future potential.

gla

G

Sharehunter786 - online sales for yr end Jan 2010, were £19.4 m - average ( £1.61M per month - not factoring in Xmas / Valentines / Easter etc )

Say two months + since lock down = £1.61 X 2 = £3.22M - now up 300% - so say £ 9 / 10 M ish at a guess.

KIV store revenue for year Jan 2020 end was £429M - average say £36m - so drop in revenues from Stores circa, £72M.

Though staff costs ( furloughed ) and HMRC costs £4m savings

Not sure what the position is regards leasehold commitments, in Jan 2020 accounts within Gross debts :

Total borrowing - £147.6M
Leasehold liabilities - £145.9 M
Cap'd debts costs - £1.0M
Gross Debt - £ 294.5 M

G

Taken my profits here on today's trade - still have my long term holding.

Yep Accounts due - any day I'd guess.

G

Hi Volcano - I did see it peak at 6091, it's been a real up and down two days, sort of like in a holding pattern, after the recent rises.

My first buy trade in AVCT was 39.97p on the 8th April - I've traded it not sure 5/6 times since taking my profits each time.

For those that bought and held - I'd say well done on that one, but overall - "holding for gold" on aim shares - both in exploration and pharma, generally or often ends in tears.

I believe you play the market with your trading funds in a similar way to me - in and out - and bank profits. It's much safer, at our age we don't need to throw it all in on one aim share -lol

Plus when you are in - you have to listen to the school ground bickering that breaks out, with the rampers and de rampers, which gets tedious lol.

Making several trades on a rising share - picking up say 10% a trade is not to be sniffed at. I off loaded BVC last week - maybe held a little too long and got 97p in the end.

Many like us who bought in at 40p ish will have either top sliced or fully taken their profits over there, would have been brave not to.

G

Tav - got to agree - grab the £10m ( a bird in the hand ) - then create a forward looking name for the Group.

Thames Gateway - I wouldn't worry too much about the ongoing licence fees, it's time to move on I feel. STOB have done ever so well out of it's ESL shares, where the cash generated from selling down it's holding, and the Bond raise have supported the rapid developments in it's Energy and Aviation Divisions.

G

Think most stakeholders here would agree that the change of name and sale of the brand right's to ESL is timely.

But its worth casting a glance back to see how well STOB has done out of the spilt. It has had the original 49% holding stake in ESL - together with the ESL divs over the years and the ESL Annual brand fee income.

Check back to the Sept 2017 trading rns, when STOB confirmed that it's sell off of it's ESL holding from 49% down to 12.5% has netted the Company £113M, which was used to pay the previous generous divs to STOB shareholders and also supported the cap ex required for the development of the Energy and Aviation Divisions.

Then a few months before ESL's trading and accountancy issues last year STOB managed to get it's £50M bond arranged - using it's ESL holding as security !! Again these monies were ear marked towards further cap ex to develop the Energy and Aviation Divisions.

Now STOB has managed to scoop up a further £10 m for the brand - whilst retaining the continuing use of the brand name, for some of it's Divisions for up to a further 36 months after the completion of the sale.

The value of the gross assets of the Stobart Brands as at 31 August 2019 was £34 million - at that time ESL had an sp of circa 70p. ( that was around the time of its AIM suspension - not now ! ) as such it was inevitable that the value was going to be written down in the STOB accounts.

However STOB has now developed it's Airport, and its Energy Division was independently re valued at an equity value of £237m as at 30 June 2019, compared to a starting valuation of £100m as at 30 June 2016. This up rate in value will be provided in the forthcoming feb End Annuals.

Some might say STOB have done rather well in it's dealings and disposal of it's ESL holdings. Bearing in mind that ESL's present mcap is £31m.

It's almost like the STOB BOD had some sort of" forward vision" super powers, on ESL's future over the years, others may suggest other reasons for each of it's successful decisions.

I guess many PI's that got caught holding shares in ESL back in August, will be less pleased in how their investment in ESL turned out.

gla

G

Tav - thx for your reply. I like to think i play with a straight bat.

The report indicates , at face value that if the aircraft could be sold for book value that the Connect Consortium could potentially recover their original investment in full. Though much less if the aircraft are sold in the present market.

It seems that the Connect Consortium were able to negotiate terms into the T/O to provide some financial protection for their investment.

I'd tend to agree with you that it appears that the previous FLYB bod were weak in their negotiations, and that possibly there was more value in the FLYB balance sheet, at the time of the T/O. Why they agreed to the deal is the question I guess. was it down to cashflow pressures, due to the credit cards company retentions which i think was muted at the time. That said it was their duty to secure full value for all stakeholders.

Hopefully there will be more clarity moving forward.

gla

G

Moni - good to hear you were averaging down on your HFD shares, and sold a chunk think its sensible to take profits off the table in these volatile times. It's had a nice run up and may go further, but profit taking could provide dip opportunities.

I thought i'd better share the initial Flyb administrators report with you, before you see or hear about it elsewhere as i suspect you'll be less than happy, if it pans out that the Connect shareholders do receive back circa 30% of their investment, due to how the deal was structured. Pretty much at the expense of the unsecured creditors.

please don't shoot the messenger.

The amount due back to the Connect consortium could be more but the aircraft whilst having a book value of £166m are only expected to fetch £85m - as it's pretty much a buyers market atm.

https://simpleflying.com/flybe-asset-value/

Got a feeling that if this comes to pass, it will hack off those Ex flyb pi's too, and no doubt there will be quite a bit of flack coming the way of the STOB bb.

There is a long way to go in dealing with the Flybe administration, the administrators have appealed to the Govt, regarding the proposed cancellation of Flybe's operating licence if that was successful the operating slots would not automatically be lost, meaning the airline could still be sold.

I imagine this tangled web, has some way to run.

G

Yep Volcano - AVCT bb is a hard read and a bit of a battlefield atm.

Schoolkids in the school playground springs to mind, but that happens on share like that where, many seem "all in" waiting for news, whilst others are on the sidelines looking for any opportunity, to shake the tree.

I've ignored all the noise and stuck to the info in the RNS and website / pod casts / TV interviews.

G

Hi Volcano - I top sliced over there at BVC at just over 50p -and recovered my initial trade. I let the profit ride, its doing ok atm., Gotta thx you for that one.

Have been in and out of AVCT several times -picking up 5 -10 % here and there.

I dumped SNG well before it hit the mid 70's - think I mentioned at the time I felt that it was a little "hot" at that price.

Did you take your profits on HFD, - its recent rise may have a little more to go, but it's now moved up way past the retail sector average since the March fall. It may be worth popping in on any dips. I'm still playing MKS and less so now TPT, within retail when it feels right - basically purely on price within the recent trading ranges.

Be handy to see LGEN drop back below 1.90 and I'm close on G4S looking for sub 90p. CPI is closing down towards the low 30's too. Any major move forward in lockdown relaxations and MGGT will come into play at these levels.

Wish I'd held onto those SPT shares - are you still active over there ?

So many to choose from guess everyone has their favourite plays lol

gla

G

Moni - Airlines are just one sector in challenging times. I've pretty much said that in a number of posts recently.

Your "train wreck" stems from your desire to see anyone and anything related to the Connect T/O of FLYB suffer, and says a lot about how deeply your FLYb losses hurt your both financially and mentally my friend.

I appreciate you have limited options to vent your spleen directly to Branson, But here on the "little old STOB bb" you can get your frustrations off your chest and it must be a great comfort to you, and I hope it helps you in some small way.

May I ask with the problems facing Airlines why is it your don't post on IAG / RYA / EZJ / DTG / TUI - is it that you have no agenda with any of these companies ?

I suspect so.

I personally won't be flying for some time, I also won't be using trains or buses, nor will I be going to the theatre or Cinema's. I'll probably not be visiting a football ground for some time - or indeed many sporting events.

Only a couple of weeks to STOB's Yr End report, last least with anything Airline related the bad news is the out there front and centre. I suspect there will be shocks in many areas / sectors over the coming months.

I suspect you don't read my posts too carefully, but you'recall that whilst iI hold all STOB shares on a free carry, with no risk here. I do class it within the marmite sector. That said - any trade on the dips is may prove handy.

A few share have done well recently - your HFD tip at 2.40 sometime ago has recovered a bit - i only did one trade, and closed out so made a little, but I'm only day trading atm as to me it feels safer. Hope you averaged down over there.

gla

G

On the flip side, for investors, the continuance of "night time freight flight"s relating to the logistics deal, must be a positive I'd suggest. Surely Income producing.

Whilst understanding the complaints of a limited number of local residents let look on the flip side again and consider, the respect that the Airport has built up over recent years with passengers. Continuing to win national awards. The attached report below, provides all the detail required -
https://www.essexmagazine.co.uk/2019/11/london-southend-airport-voted-best-in-britain-again/

These are challenging times for many sectors, including Airlines / Retail / hospitality to name but three, i'm sure other could name more sectors which are seeing difficulties.

gla

G

Hi Thames Gateway - I'm guessing Kong is referring to the local complaints around the "night time flights" relating to the Logistics contract.

Change.or previously ran a petition - it gained 11 supporters, see below-
https://www.change.org/p/southend-borough-council-stop-night-flights-at-southend-airport

The locals raise a Govt petition around the night flights back in May 2019 - it was rejected out of hand, and is old news - see below -
https://petition.parliament.uk/archived/petitions/259924

The Southend Echo reported on a local petition which was reported to have 2378 signatures, back on the 25th February, at the time SOuthend Airport met with the local MP and Southend Council - see bleow -
https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/18260796.thousands-sign-petition-night-flights/

The councils response, was very much a diplomatic side step, bearing in mind the value that the Airport and its infrastructure brings to the region in terms of revenues and employment. - see below -
https://www.southend.gov.uk/info/200158/common_projects/493/london_southend_airport/2

Kong- I can appreciate that living under a flight path can be challenging, for locals, but I suspect your Pals may have over egged the level of local frustrations, when passing on the their thoughts as requested by your good self.

All the above - the local concerns, the rejected petitions, the discussions with the local MP and the Council, and the request that all locals direct their concerns to the Southend Airport website, are I though old news.

G

moni - So another chance to attempt to redeem yourself and to offer some sympathy, to many who are facing job losses - many in airline and retail sector, but you spurn the opportunity.

Why would that be ?

You come across as a bitter individual, and i suspect you lost a lot more on your FLYB ramping than you wish to acknowledge.

G

Moni - so an opportunity missed in your post to acknowledge the human misery of the job losses at Virgin. Clearly these people don't matter one jot to you !

I'll leave others to draw the their own conclusions, as to the make up of your character.

As you say Gatwick North is closed, and you flippantly suggest, those effected at airports will easily find work !

It appears you have no grasp of the actual situation out there, in respect of the job losses that will ultimately result from Covid19, and the financial damage that will cause to many families, and the stress that this will cause.

Your disappointing follow up post confirms, what I've always suspected which is that you lump STOB in with Virgin as the reason for your FLYB losses. ( shares you bought then ramped like mad ).

I'm fortunate in that my STOB shares come by way of a free carry as you know. I agree like many Co' it has challenges going forward.

The only advice i'd offer you is to take a real good look in the mirror my friend.

G

moni - Did your negativity of all things Branson commence when you lost money on your FLYB holding or did it start to fester before this time.

When investing over a period of time, its entirely likely that most if not all will find themselves on the wrong side of a trade. However any individual loss, should be offset by a balanced portfolio. Even Warren Buffett, has taken a hit on airlines recently, however he had the "good grace" to wish all within the industry well on his exit.

Your fixation with wishing all Branson businesses, ill will, suggests to me, that the man has really got under your skin.

I'm neutral on the guy, myself, with no real views, one way or the other. i would say however that your apparent pleasure, in the financial stress of Virgin Atlantic, without demonstrating any sympathy for the staff / workers, where already 3000 are to lose their jobs, does you no credit, my friend.

That's one third of the employees, I'm guessing by the glee in your latest post that you'd see the other two thirds of the workforce, also losing their jobs as purely collateral damage, in your desire to see Branson fail.

The airline sector is on its knees due to Covid19. Have some humanity, and consider the workforce and the others businesses that work within the sector.

G

Hi R2 - the virus and shut down of the airline industry, does STOB no favours, at Southend Airport.

At the moment media reports that part of Southend is being used as a large car park for a number of planes.

It doesn't look like much will change in the short term. The BOD could do with providing a little more meat on the bone as regards, the logistics contract, at Southend as a revenue stream.

There have been indications in the interim report last Nov. and the most recent two trading updates this year that funding requirements are under review. So a further raising of debt facilities, a placing or a right issue, would not be a surprise.

The timing could prove unfortunate with the sp, down at present levels, but what will be will be, I guess.

Atm STOB has a market cap of £157 m. The independent revaluation of the Energy Division indicated an equity value of £237m last June. STOB has debt / borrowing, and cashflow from the airport, will be substantially down in the short term. That said we also have the negotiations referred to in the March 17th RNS, now on hold detailing the potential offer for the purchase / sale of 25% of Southend Airport, though these discussions are on the back burner whilst Covid 19 remains. What value an airport ? Cashflow is very important particularly over the next 3/6/9/ months. Energy Division income should remain strong. can reductions in capex, and cost reductions, deliver breathing space ?

So 42p a share values STOB at £157m and at 28p its down to £105m. Cyrus bought in at £1.50 per share and hold 8.61 % Tosca also bought in at far higher levels than the present sp, and hold 18.81 %.

I guess many Co's are in similar situations, STOB's final results were published on the 29th May, last year so likely about 3 weeks at the most for more news.

gla

G

Hi 2R - STOB publishes its yr end end Finals to Feb 2020 end this month. I expect they will provide mixed news. The growth at Soutbend will have been on track, and the performance within the Energy Division will be impressive. The dividend has already been cut so no shocks there. 2019 - 2020 capex and levels of debt will provide clarification for some, following the interim statement provided last year.

All as expected - but then the report will have to provide forward statements, which has proved challenging to the majority of Co's that have reported so far in these difficult times. Further details of the Connect / Airline buy back are required. Clearly the growth time frames for Southend will have received a knock back, we all want to see airports re opened and the two main carriers RYA & EZJ back in operation at Southend but only when flying is safe, for all.

So like many Co's - forward guidance may prove difficult. Fortunately that will not be the case for the Energy Division which provides a not to shabby contribution of the group's bottom line.

The market will value STOB in the short term as the market see fit, I guess it falls within those Co's where the sp, bounces around, which will provide many day trading opportunities. There are many of these. I have been enjoying trades with a number, of Co's in this situation - STOB / MKS / CPI / PZC / TPT / ITV are just 6 where i have made a bit of cash, since March, there are many others, which will have provided opportunities to others.

I agree many may not be glass half full on Co's in this bracket. That said sitting on the sidelines, and not trading may protect ones cash , but removes the opportunities, for trading profits, which in many cases in recent trades, offers more than would be provided by the div income - now removed.

It looks like we both see the recent market recovery as temporary, think its going to be a very challenging 12 - 18 months ahead. people by their nature welcome the bull case far more than the bear case which is understandable. It's going to be very choppy out there, and many shares as you say will take further hits. It will pay to be light on ones feet, follow the market on a daily basis, and have cash available for opportunities. Day trading I do except is not for everyone, I tend only to trade on blue days.

Interesting times.

gla

G