Member Info for Gerry65

WTI crude @ $3.20 - wow.

More head scratching for Trumpy Pumpy.

Gla

G

Hi Volcano - yep I have been reading up on a number of countries around the world where Sept is being touted as a possible time frame for an initial vaccine.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-oxford/uk-scientists-to-make-a-million-potential-covid-19-vaccines-before-proof-idUSKBN21Z25M

Yes the vaccine is vital to allow the world to return to semblance of order, in the longer term.

We also need something in the immediate short term, along the lines of the AVCT 10 min quick test, to allow an exit for lock down to proceed, whilst reducing the risks of a second spike in cases.

Will be keeping an eye out for any further developments over the weekend.

The challenge with several of these small aim shares, is that the first across the line could scope the prize.

G

Hi Tav - I agree on the long term for LGEN.

I've actually got a decent slice of them in my long term portfolio, and and I'd expect a decent recovery once a vaccine has been found. They are about 7.5 % of my total portfolio, so I'm not looking to add long term. Got a couple or three, FTSE 100 shares I want to add long term, to re balance my Long term holds.

I often day trade shares I'm already holding when I see an opportunity, have done it regularly with STOB / LGEN / BP ( ouch ) GSK / NG. / TATE and a few others.

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/sectors/

The Insurance sector is doing well today. So is Tourism and Leisure, but perhaps a little more volatile atm.

Am keeping an eye on the swings in CPI and ITV , and have done a couple of useful trades on FEVR this week.

Have got my trading funds back to cash, with the weekend looming - so that's probably it for me this week.

The challenge will be when to reduce day trades and look for those longer term positions, not yet though.

gla

G

Tav - it read well to me too. Volcano likes EMG. But for me this morning it was my second trade and I just couldn't get a decent buy price. By the time I was ready it was already moving up past 1.25. So I opted for lgen which was also moving northwards early doors, and has still got a bit to do for me today lol. Like them both was kicking myself that I didn't pick up lgen at around 1.92 yesterday afternoon.

GLA

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TF - lol i did say backalong that i doubted you'd ever buy STOB. If you didn't at .30 i guess you never will.

I picked up a couple of trades in STOB on the rise in the .40's.

The anticipated ESL rns should come any week now to clarify the way forward, in the meantime, you'll have to keep battling away. I watched rd12 over on TLW, fighting a massive rearguard action over the bank holiday weekend. He took some real abuse, from many rampers including the notorious "degsy" - the drop on Tues over there, proved his view to be correct, though he got little acknowledgement from those of the opposite view.

I see "degsy" has moved across to AVCT, and is blitzing that bb with his ramps. That's a share i have been trading recently, so its frustrating to see his posts popping up every few mins even though, i remain interested over there.

TF just think if you had bought STOB @ .30 after being somewhat negative for the last 9 months, then doubled your money @ today's close, you'd have looked something of an investment guru, and i'd have been very impressed. Any shares taken your fancy in these volatile times ? Hope you dumped those matd shares.

gla

G

Volcano - a good summing up of the reality of the Jobs situation in the US.

I feel there is a disconnect between, posts and views from posters on most bb's where posters dissect shares, presenting views, some based on fact often though often based on on a posters actual position on a share. Whilst we have our particular company or share under our microscope, like a specimen in a lab. there is the reality of what is actually happening out there.

I have a couple of close friends, one working for a company of 20 staff which was doing very nicely, but may not survive, he is now looking at his options and networking with a view to finding potential new employment opportunities.

Another switched Co's in February, now working for the UK arm of a US company. He is hearing disturbing rumours about his job security.

Both these friends in the 60k - 80k income range. Both have mgtes in excess of £200k and families to support. In normal times I'd expect them to secure new employment quite quickly as they have marketable skills, but these are not normal times.

I'm sure we all know people in similar situations.

gla

G

Volcano - yep those US job numbers are mind boggling - Trumpy Pumpy will deffo want to re open the US asap. Watch out for a bun fight between him and some of the Stronger State governors. Got a feeling he will put wealth in front of health.Though that said if the US / Italy / Spain etc open up a couple weeks before us we in the UK get a chance to see how it pans out and that could give us in the UK a guide as to how to play things on our Lock Down exit plans.

TF - Those obligations had always remained with Stobart Group as part of the original Connect deal, or so I understood matters, so no change for STOB in that respect.

Maybe best to wait for the structure of any potential deal, my friend , before worrying unnecessarily.

Once any deal is out there in black and white in an rns, then you may wish to pick the bones of it lol.

Keep up your work over on ESL, don't let those Blue Sky Rampers get the better of the debate, not long to wait for an announcement from ESL, I'd guess

gla

G

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/917414/stobart-group-confirms-deal-talks-with-connect-airways-administrators-917414.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-stobart-air-m-a-stobart-group/britains-stobart-group-considers-buying-back-stobart-air-idUSKCN21Y1VE

https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/northwest/news/2058583-stobart-group-eyes-deal-to-buy-back-its-former-airline-operations

It been picked up / leaked to a number of media platforms.

G

Hi Volcano - yes very interesting !

T"he Board of Stobart Group believes that Stobart Air and Propius have a viable future after COVID-19 and that by working with Aer Lingus as franchise partner it can place the business on a secure footing and manage the impact of guarantee obligations in a controlled manner".

The obligations remained with Stobart Group after the Connect Airways transaction, so will STOB be able to cut a deal with EY. If they do - i'd expect to be on favorable terms.

STOB generally seem to be a bit fortunate, in these sorts of deals. I look back at their continued selling of ESL over the 3 years period, followed by the Bond deal. As part of the Connect deal, STOB picked up Cyrus Capital Partners (New York) as a major shareholder @ 8.61 % - remember they bought in at something like 2.5 times the present sp.

G

Hopefully this site will perform better today than yesterday.

It's risk off again - looking at some of those US banking figures, retail sales, and the oil situation, not surprising that the US markets followed the drops on European markets say 2.3 - 2.5 % down on the open.

Oil producers will surely have to reconsider overcapacity, the demand is just not there. we are awash with the black stuff, many US shalers must be i trouble - another headache for Trumpy Pumpy. well actually a world wide problem in truth.

Volcano - today's drop for NCYT is a prime example of why its safer as you say, to close out risky trades back into cash, overnight, taking smaller profits. Bet that's been a bit of a reality check for few over there. Have no idea where it will close today.

I'm watching the house builders giving back recent gains, selfish of me but I'm hoping for further drops, in the short term. I'd expect / anticipate, house builders to be one of the early sectors to benefit, when the UK Govt begins its exit plan from lock down.

JDW / MAB have given back some gains to today as have some retail - HFD / CARD / BWNG, all a bit volatile.

Look at today's sector figures:

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/sectors/

Someday's its best not to come out to play lol.

Will follow trends into the close, and look for opportunities if there is a bounce back tomorrow.

gla

G

Hi Volcano - I did one 2 trades in STOB in the 40's, but I've not added to my free carry here since.

I watched IXI this morning - read the RNS - should have bought, but only took three trades. In truth there are so many out there.

See house builders are getting canned today, another coupe days and they should come back into buying territory.

Despite some bounce backs - I'm avoiding retail.

Gold looks good for the medium to long term.

I felt oil would trade down today, I enjoyed RD12 battling away with with the rampers over on TLW over the Bank Holiday weekend. ( felt he had the measure of ramper Desgy - as Desgy resorted to u tube insults ). What next for oil - WTI @ 21.28 - not good for the US shalers, and Brent @ 30.45. - just too little demand atm, more scratching of heads for producers me thinks.

With NCYT now sitting at 4.91, i'll leave it alone, yep it could continue to fly , but with any major announcements, from any competitors, it could also fall heavily. I just don't need to take the risk.

This site has been grim again today, very hit and miss.

gla

G

Hi Volcano - in and out of TPT yet again - bought in purely on price, its swings around a lot.

Got some AAZ which I'm holding atm - may close later and a small return on TSG ( spreads on these don't help lol ).

Tav - going to check out US earnings ( Banks ) and see where things go. Will keep on trading though.

Any announcements out re STOB ? - having another good day.

G

As a relaxing, but strange bank holiday draws to a close, its time look towards tomorrows open.

US markets have opened down, oil up slightly but questions bring asked as to whether the agreed cuts are sufficient and whether all participants will be able to achieve compliance. Demand has fallen off a cliff atm.

Earnings season kicks off, be interesting to see the figures, in black and white. We have truck loads of US data out this week including mortgage applications, industrial production, crude oil inventories, job claims, to name a few.

covid 19 - has changed the we live. How we see it's impact into the medium and long term, depends on whether we are bullish or bearish ( or perhaps on these bb's whether we are balls deep in a share, defending it like our lives depend on it, or sitting vulture like on the sidelines, testing sentiment ).

I agree with Volcano, that Gold looks good, and have entry prices on a couple shares i like, where i may look to put some funds in for a Q3 /Q4 return, would hate to see prices of some gold miners move away from me.

In the short term we have the debate on bb's such as AVCT / SNG / NCYT, very volatile, with possible big wins / losses.

On the broader market, I'll continue to read as many 7.00 am RNS during the hour to market open. Consider Asian and US overnight trends, check FTSE future trends, and jump in and out of my favourite trading shares, depending on whether UK markets are trending red or blue each day.

I'm happy making 3 -5 % here and there, and i'll try not to beat myself up too much, if i miss out on the riskier trades.

I still have a few quality long term FTSE shares Where I want to either add to existing holdings or bring in new blood to my long term portfolio where like many I guess has suffered in the last few months. If pressed i'd say i'd lean towards being bearish, and could see the FTSE visiting 5000 again this spring / Summer. In the meantime it's day trading, and back into cash for me.

gla

G

Volcano - am just in from painting one of my garden fences, by hand. I do have a paint sprayer in the garage, but only used it once on the fence several years ago and managed to get more on my hands and clothes than on the fence, so its manual work for me lol.

Yes some crazy price action going on, Out of the two I've had a punt at CPI this week ( again only punt money ) - but closed out quickly and didn't get the full benefit. It's doing well today, but as you say a little risky and will also fall more on risk off days.

This week where I've picked up 3 -5 % on a trade - I feel like I've missed out seeing some of the rises around. But casting my mind back to before Xmas, I'd have been patting myself on my back for making 3 - 5 % on a day trade - Although its volatile out there it's great when you can get in and out in minutes,sometimes.

I made a mistake by buying LLOY at 40p on the way down, back on the 9th March searching for a bottom which I misjudged so I quickly sold out at 38.3p losing a chunk. Took another bite at it at 29.71p on the 1st Apl. am still holding as I type and have covered the earlier loss and am up overall.

The lesson to me is day trade, and if it goes against you - take a quick loss and get back in again when morning futures are looking good at 7.00 am.

Take ITV - sitting at 1.30p mid Feb - driven down to 50p on the open on the 23rd March, now back up to 75p. So oversold oversold initially but what has changed in terms of production and advertising revenues, to push it up 25p from the low. Not much that I can see, so many others in similar positions.

All my trading funds are back to cash over the Easter weekend, helps me to sleep easier lol

G

Volcano - been a busy day today. As with recent days, on returning to look at STOB, the recovery of the sp is ongoing, long may it continue.

I'm guessing you have traded avct today. I've been in and out. ( similar to ncyt ).

Am mulling over my plans for tomorrow. Did you hold or return to cash ?

I saw Degsy Almond was posting on avct, one of the chief rampers on these boards. Generally i dislike getting too involved where he is throwing out his posts, as usually he is gone with his profit leaving others to pick up the pieces.

However on this occasion, I had to take a trade.

where will the likes for avct / sng / ncyt end up. ( VHS or BETAMAX ).

I'll be up early to read EMG Q1 results, its a sector where divs are raising lots of debate, will lgen hold firm.

Then we have OPEC / Russian oil discussions.

Add to that dozens of early trading updates on the potential effects of covid 19, and the hour between 7am - 8 am simply flies by. Wish i could read faster !!

gla

G

Volcano -I did TLW and LGEN too.

Got TLW at 19.62 -but sold out at just under 25, on the way up, could have had a lot more if I'd been brave.

Similar on LGEN got a decent profit but could have have a bit more.

Very positive day for both UK and US markets.

Big days for shares like TLW / BWNG / CARD etc, looks like those beaten up the most seem to have the biggest bounce backs on positive days. Plus as you say a strong day for the builders.

Not such a good day for defensive stocks, where up and down swings are understandably less volatile.

gla

G

Lol - been all over the markets today and there was a trade much closer to home here with STOB.

Genuine question - are there any other airports in the UK with a secondary source of income except the ones that STOB own and operate ?

There probably are I guess.

G

Volcano - have quickly read it along with 9 others over on LSE, they are out like London buses this morning lol.

Futures looking good this morning

gla

G

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cly_2pGTNw

your song Emerald.

Posted with the best of intentions.

G

Hi Volcano - I was in and out of TLW with the herd this morning - didn't hang around, so there was more to be made but I was happy with my return, good luck to those who stayed in.

My two main trades today were FXPO which I got a 5.6 % return, when I closed out this afternoon.

Regrettably I also plumped for LGEN on the morning drop, and need somewhere around the mid 160's to escape there probably without a profit. Have my finger over the exit button, as I want all my trading funds back to cash before the weekend. So much can happen out there over two days atm, and I'll sleep easier if I'm sitting in cash, ready to go again on Monday.

Looking at your list, I have traded SPT twice in the last couple of months anything around the 190 mark on positive morning should be worth a trade.

HIK tells me how things have changed - I last bought it in Aug 17 @ 1236p - held it for a year and sold in mid Aug 18 @ 1809p. That was of course during an entirely different time for buying and selling where you could buy a decent share, and hold it in your portfolio, and sell it at a time of your choosing. Over the last 18 months I've been buying in and out of GSK as its been nice and spikey - in truth so has HIK, and its on a nice run which is continuing today I see.

I looked at a couple of others you mention but I've so many shares where I know my buy in targets its almost too much for me to get any more websites and rns reports into my little brain.

Good luck with your trading

gla

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