Member Info for Gerry65

Adge - whichever way you look at the lost sales, over a 6th of the uk populations birthday's have passed by, during lock down some sales were saved by CARD by capturing business to its online platform.

For the lost sales they may have been picked up by competitors, in our market town, Sainsburys, Waitrose, and M & S remained open. Out of the three only the Sainsbury's offering is similar to those provided by our Card Factory store. In our Adli there is a rack near to the check outs, but it has a limited selection.

I generally buy cards for my mother, Sister and Partner from M&S and Waitrose. Slightly better quality I use CARD for my mates ( good range of Comic Beer type cards ).

Not sure if lost sales were picked up by competitors, or whether people used online messages on Whats app / zoom etc, to cover this difficult period.

Yes you are right the human tragedy of the virus may have increased the number of sympathy cards sold but i'm sure CARD along with every other card retailer, would not wish to benefit, from the situation. I feel you are on safer ground on baby congratulations cards.

G

Volcano - its just what the market needed imv. Bullish bounce back just seemed at a disconnect to the reality of how Covid 19 has impacted.

Think we may be due a few of these throughout the next 12 - 18 months. A bit of rinse and repeat.

The dash for trash recently has come back to bite a few. No surprises that some of the weaker sectors where recent rallys were strong have seen some pull backs today in particular.

Lets see what tomorrow morning brings, some could bounce back again, though if i do any trades i'll not want to be holding over the weekend. Markets could go either way.

G

Bonkers Bert - just seen your post, no buys anywhere today for me, not a day to be taking any positions .

Trading pot sitting happily in cash, all ready to grab some bargains when markets settle down.

My long term shares are down a little like most, but I reckon we needed this pull back, Bulls getting too carried away out there. I've felt for a week or two that there was a huge disconnect with markets and the reality of the Covid19 situation out there

Looked at the FTSE futures this morning, and the Asian overnight markets, together with the sentiment, following Fed Powell's speech, and it looked red all day long today.

Looking like some of my favourite FTSE shares are coming back into reasonable if not bargain levels.

For those locked in CARD, it's just a case of sucking it up for a little while, but that's the case across the board I'd guess. Expect a rinse and repeat several times in the coming 12 - 18 months across many sectors.

Still not convinced that CARD is going to double from here to 80p, in the short to medium term - but its only my view, sure Room 101 has another, and I'm sure he'l pass on his wisdom to all on here. I'll wait to see how the re opening goes from mid June - July.

2.5 months of birthday's have passed by - since lock down, CARD store sale down by £70M partially covered by £10M of online, but those birthdays have gone and won't come back.

G

Volcano - was going to go for a bike ride but its chucking it down, will probably switch to a long walk.

No trading for me today. US markets could take us a further step down when they open mid afternoon our time.

Will keep an eye out for the US jobless numbers later on.

I did a spread sheet for all my holdings and those on my watch list detailing sp's at the bottom - then I re priced them when the FTSE popped back up to 5500. Did a further revision on the spread sheet when the FTSE hit 6000, and when it touched 6500 recently.

No surprise to me that many that shot up the quickest are dropping back down the hardest, generally.

It has been a useful exercise, allowing me to compare shares and sectors, during these volatile times. There are always additional factors effecting any individual share or sector, it's giving me a personal indication as to where I see value, in a particular share or sector.

We'll all have our own systems, returning to cash after each trade,with my trading pot to me is the way to go atm. Whilst leaving my long term shares to go with the flow.

gla

G

Also not an ideal day for BAB and TALK who publish their Finals into a difficult market this morning.

Took a look at a trade on STOB early doors today but its holding up unfortunately, possible due to the placing price.

Will check again later.

G

Hi Volcano - looking like FTSE 100 will open down circa 2.2%.

As you say Gold and Tech. Also some of the globals should hold up

Won't be a great day to be stuck in cyclicals or Uk focuses business.

Been expecting a pull back - be healthy to get the FTSE 100 back down below 6000. will provide more opportunities, to pick up bargains, for those with cash ready to buy dips.

Gla

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lol Moni, no doubt you'll look in every day as usual in the hope that STOB has been vaporized - you come across as our own "Dr Evil".

Have a good evening and try to chill.

G

Moni - Every day brings an opportunity to trade any number of shares. But it's easier if it's done with a clear head.

I've continually advised here that I am holding "free carry"shares, so my particular personal circumstances, have been given to this bb in an open and honest way. I've said that STOB's development of its Energy Division and Southend Airport has impressed me. I recall many times mentioning that at the £1 range a movement of 5p gives a decent trade, particularly as trades don't incur stamp duty. Now a daily move of 2 / 3p brings a similar profit on a trade.

The Southend Airport project was always going to be capital intensive, a quick look at pics of the Airport 10 years ago to what it is now will demonstrate what has been achieved.

You don't mind - do you if I keep trading it ? I hope that's ok with you ?

Whilst doing so I'll continue to chat with others on here about and you are welcome to offer any constructive advice on any aspects of either STOB in isolation or the broader market.

It isn't the case with you and STOB that you are posting glass half full, whilst looking for a price, you didn't buy at 29p back in March, you never will, and it's not for you. We do get it, my friend. You despise the Company and the BOD.

For you it's personal You want STOB crushed, beaten, wiped out, removed from the face of the earth, do you not ? Whatever it takes, what ever the pain to any of it's stakeholders and staff, who are merely collateral damage. Face it STOB Is your nemesis.

gla

G

Moni - good for you, but at the time it was sitting down at circa 50 p you'll recall, that apart from a couple of questions to gain a feeling of where HFD was going, which allowed me a buy in, I didn't lower myself to your level over there did I. ?

It would have been so easy to pop over there and remind you that your recommendation and buy in at £2.40 looked a little hot, but I've no agenda with HFD - no with any of it's LTH's who like many others in many other companies had to take the pain of the sharp market crash on the chin.

Indeed I managed to make a few quid over there which was great. Your beef with STOB will eat you up my friend. You lost money on FLYB - you need to suck it up, and if blaming STOB as part of the Connect Group helps you in some small way, then so be it.

As we speak STOB is siting up 4 % today and HFD is down 4% - tomorrow will probably be a entirely different picture. It's so much easier to park previous trades which didn't go the way one thought they might - maybe learn from them even.

But its very important to start each new day of trading with a clear head, looking at any opportunities offered, from a calm and logical viewpoint, taking a decision with an objective mind.

Bearing grudges we eat you up.

G

Bonkers Bert - that was a very balance post providing pros and cons, and nothing like Room 101, so no need to link yourself to him in anyway.

I mentioned this morning, I see a window after the interims are published,in the early Autumn, and before the Xmas period, where I think there will be good value here.

It's had a recent step up of 178 % - that's not to say there is more to come in the short term. Though I'd rather have my trading pot available and ready for any other opportunities as they come up daily.

There are too many uncertainties for me personally, presently, so I'll wait to see how the store openings go and see whether footfall and store revenues recover. Agree CARD needs to move more online over the next three years and it could be a completely different animal.

G

Compass - not had the info though yet but will very likely take it up. Though since Covid 19 I've changed my trading here from top slicing to returning trades fully to cash.

I still hold my " free carry" shares from all trades over the last 4 years +.

Moni - there is a difference between being positive about a project - ie Southend Airport, and defending a Company, than providing " buy recommendiations" so I feel you do me a deservice my friend, though I'll be generous and let that pass.

Though I have traded STOB many times at many levels and at many times in the past and will likely continue to do so in the future - why not ?

That said a after a series of your posts on here following your FLYB losses, I recall a poster asking you for a recommendation and you came up with HFD at your buy in price of 2.40, did you not. Even after its recent recovery it's sitting at circa 1.80 is it not.

Much has changed out there in many sectors. I guess you're desire to get a dig in at STOB at any opportunity will continue.

But all views are welcome. That's only fair.

Gla

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Twib - same here in a previous life - Retired now, mainly in the Corporate Sector.

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twib - its very likely you'll get your 70 - that's 70 pointless, pumping, posts from 101 today.

Thank goodness, his posts are limited to whichever share he's got himself into. Just image the chaos on here if he had a balanced portfolio of say 20 - 30 and was posting on many many bb's !!

Perhaps as we move through the morning the 3% spread on CARD may narrow allowing few more day traders in.

G

TR 1 out to confirm Teleios Capital Partners LLC - 19.50%

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Hi Vo!camo - am glad I got my two day trades back into my trading cash pot yesterday.

It's looking like a red day today. Could be that the market felt Index's are a bit warm - the S &P looked warmish.

Maybe just a bit of short term profit taking. We are looking at around 4 h 6 % off of many cyclical shares. Will sit it out today and see if it's temporary. Then look for bargains later in the week.

Hopefully much less pain for some of my quality shares like GSK and ULVR.

G

Bonkers Bert - thx for the kind words, I like to drop in the odd bit of humour, not got a position here, though I do want CARD to recover, It would be great for some of the shops in our High Street to re open and for retail too recover though, not all will businesses will unfortunately.

I only popped on here as a kindly person to help Room 101 understand the ins and outs of the financials, as he struggles a bit with facts and figures.

Most bb's have their glass half full posters but 101's is over flowing, and making a mess all over the place. Hope he takes my David Coleman spitting image vid, with the good humour with which it was intended.

Card already has had a step up from its bottom, of 178% in recent days. The online sales will not make up for lost store profits, and LFL sales FY20 - FY19 are down, and the market expected growth. That's why the disappointing Xmas trading report, bought the sp down to the 80 - 90 p range. Q1 & Q 2 figures will not be available till Sept, so anything can and probably will be predicted until the cold hard financials for Feb - July are out there in black and white.

A TR 1 may allow some to pick up a modest profit, but every day as we move forward pi's will need to keep their eyes peeled for an rns confirming that CARD has commenced utilising the CCFF, that confirm that the RCF ceiling has been hit, and that won't go down well in the market.

So its a real balance for pi's, to weigh up. How long do I hold here !

In the meantime i personally feel there are simply 100's of opportunities where the risk reward is better.

gla

G

101 - 213 ramps in 4 days ! - But demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the data kindly presented by the trading updates.

No Idea about Online actual sales revenues, in £ value - can only see % growth lol
No understanding of the drop in like for like sales FY20 v FY19
No grasp of the fixed costs that need to be covered.
No understanding of the level of debt pushing against the RCF ceiling

Got in late at 50p ish and his posts remind me of the Spitting Image ( David Coleman sketch )

Though I'd try and post it as a distraction whilst the more patent await a re rate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnKdFVP3Ezc

G

Icartz - it's prob worth sitting here for a couple more days and wait for a TR 1, which will give a few on here something to push for a quick but modest sp rise, but I suspect then they'll get out.

The Jan 2020 trading report on poor Xmas 2019 performance, which re positioned the SP to the 80 - 90 range, was bad enough but the Virus and the impact on store Income has crippled CARD, in the short / medium term.

KIV its already had an uplift from 28p in late May to 50p at present - that's a 178 % uptick. Some are suggesting crazy sp predictions without any consideration as to the size of the Mcap that would produce, which would be a considerable disconnect to the Balance sheet value as at 31st Jan. That's also ignoring the Impact on bottom line profits for the first 4 months of this trading year.

The first quarter, had the lost Store incomes for Apl. The Second quarter May - July is likely to be much of the same. So the interims due out in Sept, can be nothing but grim. The third quarter, isn't usually one of CARD's strongest historically. So a lot will depend on Nov 20 - Jan 21 revenues and profits.

I see a limited upside here, with three downsides:
- The position now is worse than it was back in Jan so how can anyone predict a higher sp ! - but they will.
- There is the opportunity lost, of having funds locked in here, when the funds could be working from you elsewhere.( I picked up another great trade on TLW today - no recommendation - just a fact ).
- THrid and most important whilst you are locked in here you have to read the mindless rubbish from 101 - when he pops out of his room. Is it really the case that he has only been here since his buy in 4 days ago ( wasn't his first post here - 04 Jun 2020 13:37 ).

G

Yep - that's a positive step from Galleon.

Shows longer term confidence.

G

Hi Volcano - I got a good return on my TLW trade this morning and also made a little on TPT.

I was all done by mid morning and out for a walk .

I calculated that if I'd held one of my trades on TLW when it was sub 9p I'd have been up 400%, in just over two months as I'm sure some have done. But in that time I've traded it 8 times, getting in and out and back to cash, more work involved but I think its the safest way of playing these Volatile shares.

How have you got on trading today.

I've just settled down for lunch and see that CPI has jumped up again today.

It looks like a decent day with trading volumes in STOB again today by way of actual trade no's - people seem to be taking decisions - one way or the other.

G