Member Info for Gerry65

STOB seems to be a a holding pattern, with everyone scratching their heads as to what to do.

Buy hold sell lol.

Short terms challenges, with huge long term potential, perhaps one for the brave.

Anyhow its great for debate - I've said it many times - Never a dull day with STOB.

gla

G

This is a great trading share - with decent daily swings, whilst its on its upwards rise.

When it was in the 30's you only needed a 3p move for 10%, or 1.5p for 5%, allowing for costs and spread.

It's still good value for a trade in the 40's with 4p giving you 10% and 2p giving you 5%, before costs and spread.

This is one I regularly jump into on dips.

gla

G

That's me out for today with another nice trade on TLW. The move Northwards seems to building steam.

I've counted up and that's 8 trades for me since it was down in the dumps back in March.

For those that bought and held when it was in the 8- 9 p range, that's a 400% rise, well done for buying and holding.

I prefer to day trade it and will be back in on any dip, or any Morning when the news is positive. I closed a trade on Friday only to have tore open it this morning.

Perhaps it would have been easier to have bunged it in at sub 10p and left it for a couple months, much less work than its been for me lol.

gla

G

piohc1 - you can re set your target to 130 - 160p but I fear, most will have bought, traded, bought traded and bought traded again. Making their turns on their trades.

You in the other hand could well walk headlong into the interim trading report which could turn out to be a right ouchy for you lol.

You have the 80p sp level that CARD settled at in Jan & Feb after the disappointing Xmas trading report.

Yes Invesco, with all the info to hand jumped ship and yes another Institutional has hopefully picked up their stakeholding.

But how do you attempt to value CARD at a mcap of between £444m - £547m What has changed in the 4 months for you to have such high expectations my friend, lol.

I'm off to watch something on Net Flix. Am getting the feeling a few are on the vino this eve. I'll look in tomorrow sometime to catch up.

My genuine best wishes to all, Hoping your trading gods are with you over the coming days, weeks and month. Remember there are are bucket loads of opportunities out there. We should be able to turn a profit whilst the market is on an upward trend, the challenge will come if it turns bearish.

gla

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Ammu If you get your 70p is that you out ?

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Radleystine agreed. here is momentum in the markets atm. I've got three trades lined up for tomorrow, depending on the open. I generally trade in a smallish range of Co's where I've traded many times in the past. Sentiment still looks strong out there.

There should be many opportunities, out there, no need for ramping rubbish, on bb's in an attempt to help things along.

It's not been too difficult to get on the right side of trades, since the March 23rd crash.

With cyclicals get in - get out - take your profit and get back to cash with your trading pot. At the same keep an eye out for the dips on quality shares, to enhance your long term portfolio.

G

To help matters 101 has popped out if his room lol.

£1 again - but no financials, or hard data, and no wish to challenge any of the points I've raised.

The SP could go to £1 everything is possible. But that will rely very heavily on the belief that the exit of Invesco, will have maximum spring board effect for CARD.

With the SP sitting at the 80's pre Covid19 £1 represents a major uptick. What in the latest the rns and first 4 months trading this year suggests CARD is in a better financial position now or indeed in 3/4 months time than it was pre Covid19.

101 may be right he may get his price, but 101 what is fair value is up for debate. That's the fun if these bb's

A blue day on Monday and 101 will be out of his room again singing to the rafters. However for those holding here. Remember this weekends debate when the interims are published some time later this year.

Looks like a even minded guy looking at past trading data, and medium term forward revenues based on stores gradually re opening, is on a different page to short term day traders looking for a quick return.

In truth we could both be right at some stage.

G

Question to genuine LTH's - did anyone buy in based on LC's Nov 19 share forecast of £1.70.

How are you feeling about their previous recommendation ?

Wonder what info and data they used to base their call. Or did they pluck a figure out of thin air !

Still their past dismal forecasting - some might say guessing, is no reason to believe we won't get a different outcome this time round.

Wasn't that what General ( butcher ) Haigh thought each time he sent the troops over the top in the 1 at World War ?

Monday could be a good trading day - futures are looking good ATM, cyclicals are showing the highest up ticks, over recent weeks. Sentiment is high, CARD could do as well as any. Who am I to say - I keep getting away with day punts on TLW - I'm bounce to catch a crab soon though lol.

You pays your money .....

G

Ammu123 - a little more on Liberum Capital and it's dismal performance on calling the CARD so over recent yrs.

LC have had previous forecasts of £3.45 & £2.75, though there may well have been shares is issue during those predictions.

In April 18 LC dropped its forecast on CARD from £2.10 - £1.95

Then in Nov 19 they had it as a hold at £1.70 despite their enthusiasm Invesco commenced it's exit plan on the 17th Dec, following the Tory election bounce.

Two months later in Jan the shares were selling at sub 90p.

Where did LC get it's info and data for a hold recommendation at £1.70 in Nov. Anyone who bought in at the time of their update, would have paid £1.55 per share. If you'd gambled say £10k on LC's forecast, you'd have only £3225 of your investment left today.

I got to say they've not been very good at this predicting lark, in the past have they?

But hey ho whilst Invesco have jumped ship LC now pumps for a BUY rating and a forecast if £1. To be honest under the law of averages they will guess it right some day. Remember though, some who listened to them in the past may not have the same faith in them that you do my friend.

G

Ammu123 - yes we all want progress on antibody tests, and a decent Govt co ordinated response to dealing with the virus. But it's entirely possible each and every one of us is facing one if two V's - the virus or a vaccine.

Both you and Icartz have had 3 hours to answer any of the questions I posed. You either can't because you haven't researched fully or won't because you have !

It's not a problem to me if you just say you are in here looking for a quick bounce on " the seller being out" or the broker rating, that's fine and why not. It's possible you could pick up a further short term bounce. Many probably have the same plan and you could do well.

But avoiding my questions on the rns and finances, may lead me to have no option put you in with 101 in his little room.

G

Ammu / Icartz - agree sentiment could send the so north in the short term.

In the short term Revenue holes, and increasing debts with the detrimental effect on the balance sheet can be glossed over. But when do you both believe they will impact, perhaps when any interims are published or even CARD confirms it has commenced utilising the CCFF.

Of course neither of those two issues will effect the short term traders, but they should concern the LTH's.

Icartz - your short term prediction of £1.00 values the company at £342 m - I'm not saying you won't get your price. But in the short term, that figure will not be based on fundamental trading performance. In truth there is unlikely to be meaningful data for some months. It will be on sentiment. It could be there will be many traders pulling a profit next week but to do so they will have to off load their shares onto someone else.

But that's trading for you, makes for fun bb's. Will pop out for a bike ride and look in later.

G

Ammu - I agree it's hugely frustrating when legitimate posted questions are brushed aside, why is that do you feel ?
I've been a regular Card Factory in store shopper over the years, and it's customers like me that CARD will need in order to recover.

The seller is out and the buyer is in - hopefully Which should be evens on the sp.

70p a share gives CARD a mcap of £239.4 m with a balance sheet NAV of £221.5 m ( allowing full balance sheet value for the intangible assets in the books at £319.8 m ).Those are post lock down figures.

Often Co's have mcap' s over the value of balance sheet assets and you'll note I've not posted a SP prediction, I'm only focussing on the fundamentals.

You mention the warehouse and how busy it is and I provide you with the Co's monthly online income based on YR20 annual figures X3 divided by 12. Do you dispute them - please a simple yes or no - if no perhaps you'd provide your figures.

I asked you how much you believe the bank debt has risen from the £147.6m level in Jan,in the last 4 months ? Is it on an upwards trend or a downwards trend in your opinion ? A simple up or down will suffice.

I don't have a strategy, my friend I'm merely asking questions, but finding limited success in dragging out cogent replies.

Stores are shortly to re open on a phased basis which is positive. We need to avoid any bumps in the road in expanding the store openings.

Why do you feel it unreasonable to ask what you see as minimum total monthly revenue from all sources to achieve a cashflow break even position ? Surely all LTH's will be considering that figure ? Perhaps it's not important to traders, who'll merely be looking for a quick return before finding someone who they can move their shares onto. That's the key in trading shares is it not ?

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Ammu123 - Agree the shares should hopefully been moved to another Institution. If that was the case it would have had limited effect on holding back the sp, as some have suggested. With an TR 1 pi's will have a clearer picture.

Sentiment could take the sp anywhere, in these strange times, whilst we have limited fundamental trading data, to go on Since the Finals. Why would sentiment take the sp, back up to 80p when the sp was trading at 75 p at the end of Feb. Prior to lock down.

Do you have a break down of monthly fixed costs, and the impact on the bank debt ?

The bank debt was £147.6m in Jan, how close to the RCF ceiling do you think it is now ?

What overall level of future monthly revenues, from all sources do you feel will produce a break even cashflow position, factoring in the HMRC rate savings, and div savings, but with stores re opening and both revenues and variable costs returning ?

We have a Card Factory shop on our high street, which I've used regularly, and I'd like to do so again. I hope CARD can get back up and running with or without access to the CCFF. much depends on any second or third wave.

In my mind, its recovery will lean very heavily on the RCF and CCFF, I'd suspect its balance sheet will look less attractive in 12 months time. Generally investors pick shares for income or growth. I don't see CARD being a Div / income stock for a couple years, as it will need to work on reducing debt, to strengthen its balance sheet. BTW what value those intangibles ?

Is it now a growth stock, to some I guess it is, but is this based on fundamentals or sentiment. I'd say its got good trading potential, in these volatile times.

G

Like all of the retail sector CARD need to re open their store doors and try to get footfall moving.

The grim Jan trading update resulted in the sp dropping from £1.40 -90p, and it did not recover prior to Covid19. It convinced Invesco to exit. Surely their stake holding has been picked up by another Institution, and should not have had any material effect on holding back the sp. So we should see a TR1 soon to confirm this. The alternative is that Invesco many to dump its shares onto pi's, which is surely unlikely

Online sales ( not profits ) are reported to be up 3x since lock down = £5m pm. Store revenues down circa £70m in the same period, with variable store costs also down in the same period.

I see a post stating all salary costs are being covered by the Govt. its actually 90% of store staff. not warehouse staff and those working from home etc.

The bank debt under the RCF stood at £147.6m back in Jan. Expect this to be moving close to the RCF ceiling of £200m by now. As though variable costs can be managed fixed costs need to be paid. There is the CCFF, but this comes with its own issues and conditions.

Does anyone wish to break down the lease costs on a monthly basis on the 1000 + stores and warehousing.

CARD needs to get those stores re opening and pray we have no second and third wave, and start to get some measure of footfall into the stores. I suspect we will now need to sit on our hands until the autumn / winter for any relevant trading update, when CARD will hopefully show how they have managed to absorb the 6.2% increase in monthly store wages following the increase in the Living Wage from this April.

G

The grim trading update on the 9th Jan, detailing various challenges facing CARD had the effect of dropping the SP from circa £1.40 - 95p, it also took £154m off the map. There was no bounce back from this drop in Jan / Feb, in fact the SP drifted downwards slightly.

That trading update was the catalyst for Invesco to commence it's exit from CARD. This exit has acleratared over recent days and they are now all out. I agree with others it's worth waiting for a TR 1 to see if these shares were taken up by an Institutional Investment Co. surely they were ? I can't believe Invesco would have been able to dump that many shares on PI's

Whilst the % uptick in online sales has been useful, and hopefully will continue, PI's need to do the maths. online sales for FY20 were circa £20m out of total sales of £451.5m that was only 4.4% of total revenues. The 3x uptick in online sales since lockdown or 1.5 X uptick in the new trading year, any increase here is dwarfed by the loss of store income.

That said along with lost store income, comes a reduction in variable costs together with the savings from the 90% staff furlough etc, and HMRC rates, and the div savings.

However the fixed costs of lease commitments remain on the 1000 + stores and warehousing. Has anyone broken that down ?

There is still some headway within the RCF which together with the CCFF support should hopefully allow CARD and many other retailers recover, get stores re opened and regain footfall sales.

Fingers crossed there are no second and third waves. CARD is very popular, I regularly used their store in our local high street, hopefully the doors will re open soon and stay open.

G

Hi Volcano - did you have a good trading week.

It looks like "jungle rule" may well apply as we move forward.

Looks like you had the right of it over on CPI against the doomsters. Did you make a little on LGEN today, that was a nice little earner. I got away with another trade on TLW, I keep taking a chance over there, sure I'm going to get caught out one day lol.

I've kept out of AVCT recently, though I enjoyed your posts over there, lol.

STOB should present more trading opportunities over the coming weeks and months, as you know the lack of stamp duty on STOB trades means at these levels small sp moves can easily bring 3 - 5 % on a quick trade.

Enjoy your Rioja mate.

G

TF - very much agree with your post ( 17.27 )

I've posted a few times that i feel the recent stock market rises feel completely disconnected, to what is happening out there. The recent re rate of cyclical shares has been great for day trading.But like several that have discussed trading strategies on here, I'm keeping a cash fund, for future dips, and am closing trades quickly. There are going to be many bumps in the road over the next 12 - 18 months.

I worry about Doris, and don't like bringing politics into it as it's hugely challenging dealing with Covid 19. But to date the UK Govt. has not covered itself in glory, in terms of getting the virus transmission under control. I fear that we look prime candidates, for a second and third wave.

Putting to one side, the financial measures introduced. On the medical side, can you think of one piece of UK Govt, best practice to date, that other Countries in the World, are looking at and saying to themselves - " gosh i wish we'd done it that way"

emmm

gla ( stay safe )

G

We are in for

Hi Sandyman welcome to STOB's bb, any cogent discussion, is welcomed, feel free to join in.

gla

G

TF - agree re TOSCA, they'll be expecting Asset sales, I'd guess - hence the plan to monetise the Energy Division.

Also agree Southend was worth considerably more pre Covid, that'll be the case with many assets sat on many balance sheets. At least with STOB we know where we are. We've got as a Country, to get what is it - 8.5M people out of furlough and back to work. I feel a considerable number, whilst not yet fully aware of it are effectively unemployed - regrettably.

The costs, of the Southend project were, always going to be there, much has been spent - ongoing costs, will be lower, than in the past. STOB can only deal with matters that it has control over, as regards getting the airport up and running again. Cashflow will only come with flights and passengers. As to positive cash generation, that will be far easier, without past capex, would it not.

Time will tell.

Love the debate.

G

Hi Birddog - Our posts crossed. I wouldn't disagree with you around the airline Sector, it looks challenging, moving forward.

That said if Covid 19 does have a longer term impact, which it may well do, then little old STOB and Southend Airport will not be top of most people's agenda. We'll all have lots more to worry about, as will many other sectors and businesses.

Passenger numbers, are key, I put an extra year on the 5 year plan to take Covid19 into consideration. The impact is being felt across all UK airports and Airlines, and perhaps it's not a sector for many atm.

Let's wait and see what comes of the Asset sales from FLYB, if the Administrators take that route and see what comes STOB's way.

I'm going to be looking out for TR 1's to see how the major stakeholders sit in the coming weeks. I Posted earlier that TOSCA acquired 82.5M of the new shares in the placing, increasing its interest in the enlarged total share capital of STOB to 27.56%.

Shareholders will get to participate in the equity issue via an open offer while directors of the company will take up shares to the tune of around £356,000 in aggregate.

If everything was rosy in the garden - this bb would be a little dull - fortunately with STOB its always a fun place to chat lol

G