Member Info for Gerry557

Dan ........... "I have always tried to be positive on here, but some of the things I think, some on here should at least admit they where wrong about , is the nonsense about, 1. free cash flow means the divi is safe. 2. a falling sp is good. (better yield) & 3 vod's % interest on it's deb't doesn't matter. All these are complete nonsense. O.K . more fool me for not bailing out before. I admit I was wrong with my positive posts. So come on, you know who you are, admit you where wrong. I still think however positive going forward. But I could be wrong??!!"
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As the FCF improved the divi did look "safer" than in the recent past when FCF didnt cover the divi and other costs. In fact they could still afford the divi even now if they really wanted too but as other posters and Mr Read have highlighted the priorities have changed. Personally I thought that they would continue with the final as planned and then cut the divi. Not great in communicating with the shareholders in just a quarter. Im surprised some are not questioning the overall strategy. Were off on a spending spree and taking your divi to pay for it??!! How many you have said yes to that? You have to remember no divi is ever guaranteed, it a choice and often put to the vote.

As for the falling price/better yield that still holds true .......... if your a buyer. Not great if your a (forced) seller. It all depends on what side your on. Reinvesting divis now still gives 6.5% yield or so and is covered 1.6 times from memory. What was the divi cover when you bought? Most recent past it might have been under 1!

As for the debt % interest, it does matter but there are several elements. Total debt, % interest rates, affordability, FCF, inflation etc. Its like scales you add or take away from each side and the scales tilt a bit one way or the other in your favor. Its when they all start tipping away from you that the trouble begins. Normally you can cope with one going against but when they all do even in small amounts it can lead to disaster. I think that was part of Reads reasoning and keeping the rating agencies on side.

Also you have to add your own personal circumstances and time horizons into the mix of any investment decisions. You say you can hold for another 10 months. Will you be a forced seller at that point? Not an ideal position to be in and hopefully things will turn but I suspect it will be a while before sentiment changes. I suspect the deal has to conclude, the figures have to come in and debt has to start falling downwards before we see real change in sentiment. Vodafone is fighting on many fronts and there is strong competition keeping a lid on things not to mention Brexit/China and or any market falls.

Still in hindsight maybe I should have picked a different share but I could probably say that about them all.

I remember same concerns over mobile phones in general. There were investigations but nothing ever conclusively proved. If fact I think the consensus was that being closer to a transmitter was better because then the phone used less power and therefor that is better. Cant see masts in schools being a winner though because people cant understand or social media spreads diss-information and ignores any specialist knowledge.

I remember also looking at how height and therefor wavelength might affect. Then you can throw in wearing ear phones or using plugged in microphones also changing the wavelength and transmitter.

For most people, aircraft travel is probably the biggest contributor to radiation and Im sure we will all be down the travel agents tomorrow to cancel our holidays. Dont cars kill more? so maybe a walk to the travel agents then.

On the subject of kings, will FCF sit on the iron throne?

I note the last presentation talks about 5g and "Game of Thrones season download in 2 minutes" Pity GoT has finished before 5g came into actual use. Is Read now like Danny, riding round destroying dividends?

Must get back to some serious stuff and spend less time watching fantasy, you can interpret that anyway you like.

With talk of cutting the subsidies to companies like this as they are now getting millions in tax payer funds I think they might be hit quite hard.

Yes all side say they want to be "more green" but implementation and ideals are often confused with unintended consequences. Would taking subsidies away from companies and giving free solar power to council houses really work? would that be the best use? Would it be better that subsidising fairly well off to have solar on their roofs?

Why not make all new builds have solar and be done with it and you could even plan in more green community energy like they do with parks and play spaces if roofs were not the most efficient facing.

Log on at your broker and check under corporate actions. Mine says add cleared funds and specify how many you want. Then wait to see if its over subscribed and if you might get scaled back.

Currently mulling over if I should add any more even at this slight discount to current SP or just keep the cash in the pot. I dont think its such a great deal atm and better chances might be on offer in a market downturn.

Cant mull for too long though cash has to be cleared by 22nd. Maybe just add a small amount to hedge my bets. Talk of reneging on subsidies wont help here and the SP would tank if it comes to pass

Just looking at a few of the latest AGM's and a couple are dissenting over pay and this has taken a 36% hit against. One of the bigger ones but not binding.

I note that over 11% voted against the pay on the AGM. OK not binding but an indication of things. Still its even worse at STAN.

It it the start of a backlash?

Im a Ramper! well according to that website. Only 7th on the 22nd highest share.

Only just had a quick skeg so not really sure what its all about

Well I put money into Vodafone shares, so I must have been (falsely) positive at the time and yep I do frequent share bb's. Not sure about pumping and dumping or is that my own capital.

Just look like a list of regular posters to me that I see on here, who mostly would be vodafone shareholders so come to a vodafone bb.

Dont buy Vodafone, its a Kapital killer. Now off to block someone hope you all join me in my pack.

On a more positive note it looks like the SP is going to end up negative this week, along with the market

They have done this a few times and it does drag the SP back down to earth a bit. Even so its only a 5.2% yield so much lower that it has been although it is inflation linked so far.

This should be ok in a recession but what if that was in the power market? Things might stall and if interest rate rises pushed cash higher this could fall as its relatively much weaker and there might be a flight to safety. Maybe that premium might become a discount!

I was considering top slicing some as I thought they were pushing the boundaries (and sell in May!) but as the news is out its probably too late. Still my running yield is much higher and maybe May (the date or the PM) with throw up opportunities to bag a better discount.

I now note the ex divi and payment dates but when were they announced? I didnt notice anything in the RNS

Who were loaded with debt after buying out Vodafone seem to be getting back on track as debt is now falling. Net unsecured debt to adjusted EBITDA has gone from x2.4 to x2.1 and is heading towards an expected x1.75. Rating agencies are also more positive although its SP was down 2% on the day

Will this be how Vodafone ends up playing out? In the last year or so their paths have taken opposite directions with one up 13% or so with a growing divi and the other down 38% with a stagnant divi.

So will fcf be the key and will the deal be a turning point in a good way rather than the millstone that is being penned.

IvaP, Its a bit blinkered thinking that or maybe you are just young and cant remember government run utilities. No funding for improvements and a poor service that got gradually worse all the time sucking in more and more tax payers funding and that if the lights or heating came on often not in the bad old days.

As for the hard up people, you dont see them getting cut off these days as per the old system. Today there are various schemes to aid those with difficulties. Would you want to get rid of those too.

As for the yield that is based on the current SP and is not guaranteed. If they can cut the divi, and that yield indicated warning signs, what would happen to those reduced bills. Anyway a divi is normally part of the profit and government run things dont make a profit hence no reduction.

In fact its the efficient running and competition that make your ideas seem plausible and only work a a couple of years until the efficiency disappears and it needs some more cash and that government says it want to send its money on schools or the NHS or whatever Mr Voter is shouting about not new inter-connectors cos no one votes for them until the lights go out.

As for the profit from NHS, well that is happening as private companies can offer NHS services more cheaply and better quality than the actual NHS so a win win for the tax payer as he gets cheaper NHS services and much better care.

Get out from under that rock and observe the real world not ideals that sound good but dont work. I also realise that this system isnt perfect and improvements could be made but often its government policies and direction that have unintended consequences. Those bills would be a lot cheaper if you were not paying for all those "green" funding ploys.

I don't think I will be voting for the pay but I doubt my bit will make much difference.

I think markets in general are down this week and this following the flow

"This is a great - SOLID - company with great fundamentals and....."

Please can you highlight some of the "great" fundermentals as I can only see some that I would describe as average. Maybe I have missed them or we use the term much differently.

Its a good job its not a big problem then cos this small one is costing a £billion. "The new blade will be up to standard" Well they thought that about the old blade! So whilst it might be an improvement nothing is guaranteed. It might be fuel efficient but its not blade efficient.

One thing we do agree on through is we both want it fixed.

So costs not increasing, so they did suspect further issues after all. Lets hope the improvements work and they can get to some sort of normality.

Breaking out or just getting back to normal now the placing has finished

Well its up ever so slightly on the week but behind my overall P/F performance which was up over 2% this week.

It is also one week less to the next divi and hibernation for 10 years sound good

The board were asked about "further issues" on the latest results including the TEN.

It was played down and suggested that the issues had been or were being overcome. So i found the news of aircraft grounds quite disappointing. How many more will follow?

I dont doubt that they are trying to resolve the issue after all its costing a billion quid or so and I suspect there might be some additional expenditure to come. If you look at Boeing, these types faults can be quite costly and reputations are on the line. I suspect these faults were there before Mr East came on board and did the cost cutting. It might make an interesting investigation of the process and how we ended up where we are but I doubt we will ever get to find out.

I assume the pack C versions were not the ones grounded but I haven't looked too hard at the details

Yep I got scaled back too. Never mind your last post reset my expectations. Jun Dec and Mar are my worst months for income so a few more of these will help address this a tad.