Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Well, I wasn’t far off with my guess of TD buying shares. Shame it wasn’t for more, seems fairly measly.
If you think TD’s communication is bad (and you’re not wrong) you should watch the video PMO released last week with their exploration manager for Mexico. I’ve seen office staplers with more charisma.
Need TD to come out with a big buy tomorrow, like he did at 42.5p last time we tanked.
Agreed oiluser. Given catcher’s going better than expected losing ‘a few thousand barrels per day’ from elsewhere should have put us at mid point of guidance. If not, how on earth did they ever reasonably expect to hit the top end at 85,000? I think March should be good with end of year results inc. catcher reserves upgrade. With regards to the Marte prospect below Zama, I know Talos fancy it. They’ve de-risked the source rock, it’s a different trapping style though form what I understand. Probably a coin toss with regards to success chance.
Maverick, if you’re interested in good fiscal terms, Falkland Islands are some of the best in the world, less government take than Guyana. I agree though, Guyana does look good for Tullow. My point was that it’s been a good while since they delivered value from the drillbit, they’ve drilled A LOT of dry holes in the last 5-6 years. A lot of bad prospects drilled hoping for the next Jubilee. Also, Zama isn’t deep water, it’s platform territory. Still, if appraisal results are good, I’d rather they flogged it. Much higher profit for your dollar invested in FI than compared to Mexico.
I think part of the reason PMO has gone from 1/8th Tullow’s mcap to 1/4th is that fact that Tullow’s been leading the exploration failure rate in the industry for quite a few years now. It’s almost like they’ve been trying not to find commercial volumes of oil when they drill. PMO by contrast have found one of the biggest fields of the decade, in shallow water to boot. In the short term, holders here need to have their fingers and toes crossed that Zama appraisal goes well. Might be the only short term boost to the share price if oil stays at this level, even though most agree the true value is much higher.
Fair enough. I hope you’re wrong but you seem to get it right more than most.
Well Capra, what else would you expect. Predicting a further fall of over 25% is pretty much the definition of a deramp. Do you still share your charts on Twitter?
Other UK oilies aren’t down by the same amount, it’s pretty clear we’re tanking because of the poor update. Don’t really understand how anyone can say it wasn’t bad. The Zama/Tolmount/Sea Lion stuff was nothing new. The only real news was that even with Catcher outperformance, production is gonna be at the low end of guidance (it will have to average about 87,500 bpd just to scrape in at 80k for the year) and the fact that debt reduction will be at low end of guidance. Those are the two key bits of new info and both are bad.
Production will struggle to meet lower range of guidance and even with oil prices significantly higher than expected since half year update, it looks like debt reduction will be at low end of guidance. Not entirely sure how that constitutes an excellent update.
Judging by the tone of his comments, Laidback is referring to US Nat Gas prices which have skyrocketed recently. We don’t sell any gas in that market. We do sell gas in a bunch of countries, at quite different prices, but generally a lot higher than US prices.
0% for the gas price you’re looking at.
On a separate note, best thing to come out of this week’s update could be news on 2019 hedges. If they locked some in in the $70s and $80s that would look pretty smart around about now.
Over $5 down now, but weirdly US oilies aren’t reacting as much as I’d have thought. 1-3% on average, not bad considering. Maybe we’ll stay in the 90s tomorrow.
Updates never move the price more than a few percent. Taking a longer term view I’m still relaxed, this oil price crash is quite a sight to behold and will provide those with cash the chance to get some bargains tomorrow.
Year end update is mid Jan, then a couple months later official 2018 full years.
About 2 years ago back when the rig count was far lower than it is now, I posted here that the Permian was a monster that people are constantly underestimating. I was met with ‘the banks won’t fund it’ and ‘shale doesn’t make any money it won’t take off again’. Now look at where we are today. Don’t make the mistake of underestimating US tight oil again.
Brent was $6 or so higher when we last hit 99p, just for those who say we always fall disproportionately when oil drops.
Oiluser, if you just look at the fields, Zama is the obvious choice to invest in every time if you only had to pick one. However, you’d be picking one of the worst fiscal regimes outside the Middle East in the world over one of the best. A successful appraisal programme on Zama would bump up the sale price a ton if PMO were to decide to sell.
He’s wrong. By my estimates oil would need to average materially over $200 next year for us to ‘clear’ our debt. Somehow I don’t see that happening. To get to our desires metrics by Q1 2019 we’re probably fine at $65 though. Maybe even $60.