Dodger, good to see you. No doubt if it hits DBNO’s target he’ll lower it. Then you y
Kayel, I’m bullish on PMO in the medium and long term, but I think you’re building yourself up for disappointment if you’re eyeing in net debt of $2.1 billion by year end. Unfortunately, I think that’s off by hundreds, rather than tens, of millions of dollars.
Thanks Plebeens. Looking forward to Zama spud and the testing of the underlying Marte prospect. I know PMO have hinted it’s a long shot, but always good to target some reasonable upside if it’s not too much more on the well cost.
Plebeens, you don’t by chance have the dates for the last 3-4 loadings jotted down somewhere? Not to worry if you don’t. Cheers.
ROS1, I would hope the $70-$75 is the average annual price of oil excluding our hedges. If not, that’s a little sneaky of PMO! Regarding Catcher, unless I’ve missed a tanker (which is quite possible, as mainly go by someone writing it here which, given I don’t always check the website, I might miss) it seems that over the last two months or so the offloads have been every 10 days when you take an average, suggesting oil rates at or slightly below 60,000bpd. Given the slightly slower than expected ramp up earlier in the year I don’t see us passing the upper guidance of 85,000bopd, unless other assets have performed particularly strongly. Just my thoughts and as always happy to be wrong.
Brent has averaged about $73.5 year to date. If oil can hold around $80 for the rest of the year that will creep up to almost exactly $75. I don’t personally expect production guidance to be surpassed, if it is I can’t imagine it will be by much. All in all, lines up for around the $400 million reduction figure, although with PMO, I’ve found you should always expect a smaller reduction than the maths points to.
For 2H 2018 we have 4 mmbbls hedged at $60. For 1H 2019 it’s 2.6 mmbbls at $66, then 2H 2019 1.5 mmbbls at $69. This will have changed since half year results, the prices will have gone up as will the volumes.
I assume November trading announcement.
Why would a post from someone who consistently loses money on a share that’s increased massively over the past year or so make any sense?
TCF, PMO often behaves strangely when you look at the day to day. Over long periods of time it seems to eventually catch up. July last year we were down in the 40s - we’ve tripled over the last 15 months. I don’t expect the same growth rate in the future, but with oil prices where they are I don’t see any reason why we couldn’t double this time around in the same period. It is frustrating when the SP clearly lags true value of the company at these sorts of oil prices, but we’ll get there.
Are you a Mormon DBNO? Pretty sure they believe in getting their own planets - god knows you’re on a different one to the rest of us.
Hmm, so Reuters say. Seems like peanuts for 15kboepd with oil (and gas) prices where they are. I see Brae is in there, I guess it’s mostly end of life assets then.
asteris, I’d be very surprised if it went that cheaply.
Higher oil prices don’t trigger crashes/recessions/demand destruction overnight. Sure, if there’s a sudden flurry of bad news that pushes oil up to $150 then that’s obviously not going to last long. But the world can take $100 for a while without topling over, if it ever gets there again. More than happy with where oil is today and if it could steady here, great.
If this goes to £350 I can retire 30 years early.
Is it really 17kboepd from the UK? Hadn’t realised it was quite that much. Huntington is a light oil field (about 41 api if I recall), while Elgin-Franklin is gas condensate, not entirely sure of the CGR there. Still, I’ve been pleasantly surprised with UK gas prices recently, however much we actually produce.
Agreed long term Smut, but £2 by year end is a pretty bullish target! Depends how much Zama drilling comes through by then and if it does, how positive it is. Even then it would be a stretch, I think mid 2019 is more likely. My personal timeframe is a couple years longer and would be surprised if the SP wasn’t significantly higher than that by then.
Also, helping the oil price could be the L48 production numbers.
TCF, just so you know, anyone can get the numbers straight from the horses mouth at 3:30pm on the EIA website: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
Dist was certainly not flat - huge build. Your gasoline number is out too.