Apologies if this has been shared already: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/premier-oils-attacker-reported-to-regulator-2n0tm7bhs#
I was expecting 350-400m new shares. Anything less than that will be a bonus I suppose. I suppose we need all this court stuff to be wrapped up first, so earliest we might hear is March? By then the share price could be +/- 30% from today knowing PMO.
This is correct Tuscan. Final acquisition price should be pretty much covered by the $500 million equity raise due to adjustments.
Woodmac analysis of the BP deal gives it an NPV10 value of over $650m, which we will end up paying a lot less than, plus the highlighted that this didn’t factor in the significant additional value of our tax credits. So it seems like PMO got a good price.
Also think if Zama comes in selling for over $400 mil (pretax) this could jump to 125-130p. Less than that and I think it might be a sell the news type thing. Let’s see.
Based on the outline of those prospect polygons, 1.6 bbo combined gross resources looks like a p10/p1 outcome and a classic AIM ramp. It’s a world class source rock out there though so I wouldn’t be surprised if they hit some oil bearing intervals, flow rates will be the key though. Can’t complain though, cheap well with high value in the off chance it does come in as big as billed.
What do we think the odds are that Shell will exert their preemption rights? Articles from last year suggest they were in discussions to buy BP’s share (https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/197807/shell-in-talks-to-buy-bps-stake-in-shearwater-field-report/) at an estimated value of $250 million, which is $75 million more than we’re paying.
I wouldn’t be overly surprised if they do - we’ll know either way by the end of the month or so I’d guess. Would mean $175 million less on the placing, although given it seems to be a decent price I think I’d rather Shell don’t grab it.
Contrary to most 'commentators' on here, I and a few others have argued for UK M&A and it seems that approach has been vindicated this morning. Did have a good chuckle when I saw the share price up nearly 15%, then saw that the majority of posters had lost their heads from the 7am RNS until the market opened at 8am. A helpful reminder that the company does indeed know how to generate value considerably better than a lot of the posters here. In my opinion, while I congratulate people taking profit, this is one important step in the process that will ultimately see the SP continue to rise over the year.
With Tolmount online in 2021, PMO could be a 120 kboepd company, barely recognizable from the company I first invested in a few years ago. And this has been achieved during the bottom of the oil price cycle, catching low prices for Eon, Catcher development, Tolmount development, Big-P development and now this BP acquisition. This sets up PMO to be profitable for many years into the future and able to withstand future periods of low oil prices (or make an absolute killing in moderate - high oil prices). The difference a few years of success can make is quite remarkable.
ARCM with their 17% short position benefit if the share price goes down. Their objection to this deal is therefore all the evidence you need to suggest it will benefit share holders.
Now we wait for Zama news, probably in the next month. I'll be interested to see how the deal is structured concerning any contingency payments should the unitization process be successful or the Asab-1 well on Pemex acreage (which could spud this quarter - finally) come in with a good result. I imagine PMO will favour bids that load the majority of the payment upfront, although ultimately we'll only see the structure of the winning bid so I suppose we'll never know.
Now to sit back and enjoy the rise.
ARCM apparently still snapping up PMO debt. Looks like they and others are still pushing hard for a rights issue. If we can come out the other side of this without one, I think the SP will explode.
Premier - CNH appoves new subsidiary name for CNH-R03-L01-AS-B-57/2018, CNH-R03-L01-AS-B-60/2018 offshore contracts
Mexico’s Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH), in December 2019, approved a move by Premier to shift responsibilities at the CNH-R03-L01-AS-B-57/2018 and CNH-R03-L01-AS-B-60/2018 offshore contracts from Premier Oil Exploration and Production Mexico, to Premier Oil Mexico Recursos. Regulators said the approval is related to the company’s internal restructuring. The approval does not impact the Talos-operated Block 7, officially known as CNH-R01-L01-A7/2015, host to the Zama discovery. That block is where Premier is farming down it 25% WI. Premier has a corporate strategy to strengthen its balance sheet, slash debt, and boost profits. Marine contractor McDermott International holds a contract for concept and engineering services for the Zama Field development project in CNH-R01-L01-A7/2015.
This happened about a week ago. Also found an article about it: https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/premier-oil-plan-hints-at-companys-woes-outside-mexico
Credibility, didn’t you recently buy TLW at something like 170p? From what I hear, Jubilee FPSO is going down the sh*tter. Major cash cow but they’ve completely neglected the ship, to the point where it’s verging on the unsafe. Wouldn’t want to be in there if some sort of unforeseen downtime occurred.
When some of us used to suggest that TLW having x8 our Market Cap was unrealistic in the long term, I think most of us were hoping it would be us catching them up, rather than them crashing down to our level...
Careful what you wish for I guess! Feel bad for holders there, I was annoyed at getting out with a 1% loss last week, can’t help but feel lucky now.
I know I’m not the only person whose felt it really strange that despite the non-stop flow of good news for the last 18+ months, the share price hasn’t responded properly. This news has left me really excited for the next 6 months. If we can get a good price for Zama (don’t forget to take off the tax we’ll pay), pay down debt then come out of a refinancing in a much stronger position, I think the current SP range will be a distant memory. GL all, exciting times ahead.
Well, TD was quoted as saying something along the lines of ‘we won’t know until we open the envelopes’ when asked about Zama sale. So I’d assume it’s a sealed bid.
IMO, sealed bids are generally the best way of ensuring you get the maximum from an asset sale.