Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Oh, there are lots of reasons it might not be successful, although each fairly unlikely. Poorer reservoir quality than expected, structure not quite how it’s been mapped, charge migration shadow, dodgy seal etc. I’d imagine internally, Pmo see it as less risky (eg 80%), but I’ve seen a fair few near field appraisals with high chances of success come in dry.
On a similar topic, when companies quote a targeted volume, (220 bcf in this case) it’s often the mean volume they’re quoting, sometimes the p50. However, the chance of success, normally given as a percentage, is the chance of finding either the p99 or p90 in most cases. The chance of finding the quoted volumes is materially lower than that. Just something to watch out for.
Ensco 123 been in Dundee for a little while now, should be spudding the Tolmount East Appraisal well in the next few weeks. Probably looking at a 60-70% chance of success - adding significant value to the company, maybe worth 10-20p on the share price if it comes in. Well, that’s what it should be worth, let’s see if it comes in and if PMO reacts the way it should.
Wow, 0.6%, leave some profits for the rest of us please.
Previous appraisal well result announced a couple months ago. Unless you’re waiting for the full, integrated results of the whole programme that includes an updated resource range. Might get some sense of that with the next press release on well 3, but you’d think they’d need some time with the data to work that all through.
The last appraisal didn’t add anything like 20-40%. Also don’t see our share being worth $1 billion. Also positive news isn’t a guarantee from the appraisal.
I genuinely think he’s getting worse over the years, not better, which is a bit worrying.
It’s already low 60s.
Thanks MO, I can post the full articles when I’m back in the office. Although I don’t think it’s anything that’ll shift the SP.
I’d guess the next 2-3 weeks if I had to, based on previous drill times. Happy for it to be sooner though. Just a word to the wise though, nothing is guaranteed when it comes to geology thousands of metres below the surface. People shouldn’t forget that results can come in below expectations just as easily as they can be above. Obviously I hope it’s the latter.
No, don’t think we’re expecting news for another month or so. And blimey, not seen a day like this is a while. All par for the course with PMO. Nothing changed long term, just a chance to buy in cheaper for some. Personally I’ll only be tempted below 75p.
Anyone else see the sale of Zama marking an important shift in the future of the company? Just my own opinion, but I think in the next 6-12 months we’ll see Zama sold (hoping for 400-500 mil) with FID on Sealion linked and to follow shortly after. At the same time I think they’ll announce the reinstatement of a dividend, seeing as that’s certainly the trend in industry atm. Just my thoughts. In an ideal world Solan would have produced as planned, even after being late and over budget, and we’d have been able to go ahead with Zama and Sealion. But between Tolmount and Sealion, we’re brimming with growth opportunities for our size, so I see Zama making way in order to ease concerns over SL funding, plus help with the dividend coming back. To be clear, I don’t think with our portfolio a dividend is the best way to spend money, I just think it’s what management will do next year or 2021.
Biggest issue with Zama atm is Pemex failing to get its appraisal going across the block boundary. Latest I heard was that the Tiger-1 drillship has fallen through (again?) so they might be going to tender again for a different rig. Despite the Mexican’s wanting an expedited FID, it could ultimately end up that they’re the ones holding it up. Really hope it gets drilled in the next 6 months. Latest Zama update didn’t really shift the price much, possible because it’s hard to read into exactly what a flow test means with so little information. The final well by contrast appears to be away from the highest seismic amplitudes which seem to occur in the centre and northern portion of the field, and it also seems to be placed quite close to a fault. Good results here should have strong implications on the field size. I look forward to hearing news in the next month or two.
Now they’ll write an article about premier’s failure to secure the chevron assets and try to knock some more off, heh.
Any rig watchers noticed if the rig has moved site yet? Gotta be imminent.
I’d say we’re looking at an Autumn FID. Just my opinion.
TarthDrader confirmed as members 2nd account? Looks that way. The filtered list grows! Zama news in the next 10 days or so now I’d imagine, exciting. Plus nice to see RKH on the up.
Love_You Until you understand a little geology, I suggest you stop worrying about things like that. Because trust me, there’s no weird conspiracy theory, it’s just different rocks at different pressures in different places. Plus the shale companies live and die by their drilling efficiency. For Shell it wouldn’t matter really if that well took an extra month and another £10 million, it’s targetting hundreds of millions of barrels of oil, completely different kettle of fish to the average shale well.
They’ve repeatedly said Zama news not until early April, not sure why anyone’s been holding their breath.
I feel sorry for them too Mrd, although never really understood the appeal of that company - writing has been on the wall for quite some time now re. Kraken. Seems like it’s one piece of bad news after another over there and can’t see it turning positive soon. Hopefully things start to turn round as I know some holders of PMO hold there too. I might get interested around the 10-12p mark if momentum takes it there.
TR61 - appreciate the kind words. Last time I sold was at £1.25 or so, but only about 8% of my holding. Had more planned for £1.50 but just missed out. My ultimate goal back then was £2. I used to money from the sale at £1.25 to buy back some recently at 58p or so. Sounds like a great trade, but ultimately it was only for a small amount of my holding, so can’t take much credit. My personal view is that the whole sector is significantly undervalued when you look at basic metrics, including US independents, but I don’t see this changing quickly. Even with quite brilliant results the majors are undervalued. This increases in severity as you move down to stocks like PMO. I think oil will probably average between $65-$70 this year, potentially next as well, which is a decent enough price for us. One thing I like is the amount of value we can deliver from the drill bit. Further success at Zama and success at Tolmount East should add significant value. My personal target of £2 is unchanged, which i think will probably be hit in 18 months or so IF (and all of these happening certainly is an if) debt reduction remains on track, oil prices remain around the aforementioned levels or higher, Zama appraisal is successful, Tolmount appraisal is successful and Tolmount project remains on track and on budget. I feel if these things go our way, my £2 target in 18 months (which includes time for the market to re-establish some faith in the sector) isn’t unlikely.