focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Hahaha, that did give me a chuckle DBNO. We really didn’t need you to give that disclaimer.
200p in the next year would do me just fine.
So many people on both sides certain that their view is best and the other sides’ is abhorrent. Am I the only person no longer even remotely sure about what the best solution might be? Seems like a complete shitstorm to me.
If people want to get in on the action in Mexico, buying is the only option now that licensing rounds would stop. Good news for Premier, unless the whole private oil and gas industry goes tits up.
For me the two big things to watch with shale over the next couple of years are: 1) Increased multiwell pad type drilling with laterals moving closer to averaging 2 miles rather than 1. M&A over the last few years is helping to consolidate acreage into more contiguous plots where operators can get down to drilling really efficient developments. This might cause breakevens to drop. 2) How the introduction of artificial intelligence and machine learning into the shale space will cut costs and increase efficiency. Silicon Valley and Houston are finally talking properly: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pAzLAjC6p0U Tomcorvid, are you breakeven numbers including the costs of all the share buybacks, dividend increased and debt retirement that are going on currently in some of the shale players?
Mrd, Sierra also had 4 other licences apart from Zama, albeit none yet drilled. Prospects get little value in these sorts of deals, but they would have got some, at least what Sierra paid for them assuming a signature bonus was part of the awards.
HeresHopin, with 11 and a bit months of the year already gone, the maths suggests they can’t upgrade the production guidance. Even at current run rates they’ll only beat guidance by 1kbopd max, and likely lower, so no real point in changing guidance.
Sierra Oil and Gas (40% partner in Zama), sold for approx $500m to Dea. The buyer is one of our partners in the most recent block we picked up. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1O401V
Will a cut matter if there’s a recession next year?
Might be other reasons for the TLW drop. We’ll see.
I wouldn’t expect RNS for Zama spud. While it may act like it, this isn’t an AIM company.
Solan was a crap project through and through. How it got through the various gateways to sanction I’ll never understand. Small reserves in a mediocre reservoir that clearly wasn’t very well understood, in a harsh, infrastructure limited region that required an expensive production solution. I don’t think Chrysaor were predicting an oil downturn, they just knew it was a bad investment decision. Even after the overspend, if Solan has at least produced at the anticipated rate, our production this year would have been 100kbopd instead of 80kbopd. The SP would easily be multiples of what it is today.
Ah, sankeys, long time no see. You holding here? I have the vaguest recollection of you selling out sometime ago, probably at a much higher price than today. Given my history with this share I was surprised with how well it was holding above £1, but didn’t see it going quite this low...
Purple, it’s really difficult to compare the two like that because of development cost, reservoir and most importantly fiscal regime differences. An oil companies share of profits from Mexico is much lower than the equivalent from Falklands islands. Also, remember Pemex has a split of Zama. At the moment I’m assuming only 100mb net to Premier. The part of the field that crosses the border is close to the structural crest and will potentially have the thickest part of the oil column, so be wary of that - the map view of the field may be misleading.
PurpleBagel, Zama unlikely to be worth even half of the figure you quoted, but I agree it should be sold.
Indeed capra, I’ve set that as my point to average up if it gets there. Let’s see whether I get the chance.
Didn’t the Bakken hit a new record recently? With a no vote to proposition 112 don’t expect DJ basin production to drop off any time soon. SCOOP/STACK looking strong, and he’s a one you’ll be reading about in a few years: the powder river basin could be the next big thing. As I’ve said before, don’t expect US shale to underachieve. The Permian could be increasing at a much greater rate than now if operators weren’t committed to lowering debt, buying back shares and increasing dividends.
Wow, just came out of my 2:30-3:30 meeting, didn’t expect this to greet me. Looking at the chart it seems oil fell 51c within one minute alone, never seen anything quite like that. Gotta be getting close to the bottom of the cycle where the despair kicks in and the big boys open their longs to make a killing.
Mrd, you’re making the mistake of assuming PMO only does what oil does. Don’t you remember the 35% jump on day of Zama RNS?