Member Info for Genghis15

LW
I dont know.
El19 says his mates r sure it will resolve, but with all due respect to him a bb post is not solid investment advice.
What I was trying to say was that if he is right, anything up to 30k bod is possible.
As to max capacity of one well alone, I've never seen that discussed.
Given the world class PIs, mb one well could do it, but my guess is they would not want to pull that hard on one well at this stage.

It rather smells of a 7am RNS, with a delay on WN ; mb there is a Bronze Age fort where the access road goes? Or a crucial well test kit hasn't arrived?

OTOH, it could just be a fit of investor collywobbles at the PoO fall. And would be a bit rum to issue such an upbeat statement with the Accounts the day b4 announcing a delay.
We should know tomorrow at 7am..

good point, jake.

Top of the freshers class for you, I think!

LW

22k bpd is perfectly possible, there was always a plan to ramp up eventually to 30k bpd, which is the max capacity b8 debottlenecking works, and also the max flaring consent. (btw, for some of the new posters here, that flare consent is time limited, meaning a gas solution needs to be put in place ).

The Q comes back to well performance, of course ; el19 is assuring us his pals are confident t will all come good, and we must all hope so.

I don't need to mention that there is a downside scenario too, which is why the next ops update is critical.

Caribbean
Interesting.

I will drive past the airport later, haven't yet looked at it full of BA jumbos.

I've heard planes climbing out but assumed it was the A340 they're using for PPe imports.

"most shareholders? - how many do you know?"

After attending the previous 5 AGMs, and various presentations, a significant number, tho I don't speak to all of them regularly. My comment is admittedly subjective, but based a majority shareholders I know, and on the current SP. If there really was more concern when we were 60p, we wouldn't have been at 60p!

"There was considerably more uncertainty about production when the price was in the 60s,"

I'm not sure that is true ; it's certainly not true of my perception. Most shareholders, I think, were very confident of production at that time. Even the sub optimal results of adjacent drills didn't dent that optimism too much. It's the rising Wc and interference issue, leading to lower current production that ha fuelled doubts ; not helped by the RNS reference to modelling a higher OWC.

BGB
I don't know about that, but I DO know that both wells have "WORLd CLASS" PIs. That should mean that, beyond current difficulties, there is a helluva reservoir there.
But its FB, and few majors have experience in that. So they wait, and let the small boys prove it up. We are not there yet. LTers here know that we've been waiting 5 years to get noticed.

They've noticed it for the last 5 years. But they still seem to regard it as more risky than convetional. That is the purpose of the EPS, to prove the concept.

draft
Yes, they are saying all the right things in that regard, no quibble.

I still, largely, believe in RT's conviction that the Rona Ridge FB plays are viable reservoirs, that it is early days, and that a huge resource awaits. But the disappointing results on Warwick, and less than ideal at Lincoln, mean that the Lancaster EPS needs to go well.

TBC my "closer to $40 than $30" was meant as a rough guess at CURRENT costs, not the ave for the year, which will be different, and was behnd my $32 estimate.. My purpose, mainly, was to point out that at current PoO and production levels, there is not a great deal of cash being added to the previously known figures.

I did NOT say $40. I said "closer to $40 than $30", meaning the upper 30s.
Fwiw I stll hold shares here.

Error ; current mcap £150, nor $150m.

LW
Surprised you query the costs. $17 was the last update when we were producing at 20k bpd, less downtime., so ave for year 18kbpd.

Current prod 12k bpd. The $9 for G&A etc is roughly proportionate, so goes to $9/12/20 =$15. The $17 is a mix of fixed/variable, and we don't have figures. That's why I said "closer to $40 than $30".

That's at current production. My previous est of $32 was at ave of 15k, I think.

I deon't really mind id ppl want to paint MY POSTS AS POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE. I HAVE POINTED OUT THE UPSIDE CASE, BUT IT SEEMS PPL ONLY WANT TO CHALLENGE WHEN I POINT OUT THE RISKS. tHEY AE THERE ; DON'T IGNORE THEM.

(Apo;ogies for capslock!)

JPM report misleading, imv.

They cite capex reduction but omit that majors are quietly squeezing more out of old field. They cite less drilling, ignoring that KSa have been drilling away madly. And they ignore the spare capacity in the world atm, which will come back onstream at some point, like Iran, Venezuela, Libya. Not o mention spare capacity, EVEN ABOVE THE OLD opec QUOTAS, IN ksa AND THE gULF.

Add that lot up and you get something like 6m bpd.

Nobody knows where Poo will be in 2025. The world is getting a more volatile place, and it could easily be driven that high, but not by supply/demand factors alone.
Or it could stay at current levels for a long time, for too many reasons to quote.

It's just unknowable. Best guess? Somewhere in the range $40 to $80, which keeps most producers happy (ish).

Current Mcap $150m, cash at bank 01 April $150m, Debt $230m.

At current production rates cost per barrel is likely closer to $40 than $30 (the$17 and $26 figs relate to 18k bpd), and there are questions over the future production rates. That's why we are where we are.

All now hangs on the next ops update.

Ye gods, another one. " unless another issue comes to light.".

Yes, that's the worry. We've had a string of "issues com(ing) to light", which new posters here are conveniently overlooking.

If you read the whole of that article the picture is not as simple as the headline states.

Road is for the B drill.

The EWT is different, and could be updated any day with news of kit on site and an imminent start date. Est test duration, I think, c. 6 weeks.

$26 pb is the cost at ave 18k bpd pa. At 12k bpd pa it will be higher, but there a few wrinkles in the opex that mean it is not a straight arithmetic calculation.

Lets be generous, assume we reach an ave for 2020 of 14k bpd, reckon costs will b c. $32 per barrel.

I an still mildly surprised not to see a WN EWT RNS yet. It can't be long.