Member Info for Genghis15

Read the Annual report. I'm not typing out a lengthy reply for the convenience of those who can't be bothered to do so.

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/investors

The critical thing now for the SP is not Halifax, Lincoln, or any other fields. It is the next ops update RNS which will tell us how far the co has ramped up production from the 6 well above the current (22 May) 10,300bpd.
Given the known PIs it should be capable of 15,000 bpd or even more ; but we don't know if its proximity to 7x might draw harder on the known water pocket ; if it might , by drawing harder, and possibly from a longer section, find another water pocket ; etc, etc.
Being so reliant on a single well, means the co, and any investment here, is exposed to a high level of uncertainty, which is why I have only cautiously ventured in.

Should the well perform as expected, tho, and produce at 15k+ bpd for a period, then as long as PoO remains stable or improves, the co can think again on drilling, and mb expedite a Lancaster drill this year.

extrader
TBF to HUR PR, they can't really tell you anything not in public domain, so I guess that's why they refer you to CMD, etc.

bartle
I assume you are invested in HUR, or you would, I presume, not be here.

If that is the case, not knowing the answers to the questions you ask about Dr Trice tells us more about the diligence of your investment approach than the answers do about the directors.

Simples, doubts about the well/reservoir.

We are a one trick pony, our EPS has surprised with a couple of well/geo hitches unexpected by HUR's modelling. So there is nervousness that it could get worse, and the reservoir not perform as well as predicted, and/or not for as long as predicted.

I'm confident enuff to have tested the water again today, bcos whilst there is risk, if the glitches are overcome the upside is huge.

Daltry posted this a few days ago, and it contains the very interesting "Hurricane shares fell ~45% on the news, which we see as an overreaction given that there is no reason to believe that this issue suggests any reservoir issues that will impact long term production. The interference between the wells is in fact an indicator of the prolific nature of the reservoir.".

Now, of course, this is paid for research, so will rely heavily on the in house view. But if HUR are confident enough to assert that to Hannam, and they to publish, I think is worth something, even if it is not a solid independent review like a CPR.

Anyway, it encouraged me when I saw it, but was still bearish on PoO at the time. I am now cautiously optimistic (perhaps nervously optimistic would be closer!) on PoO, so have put a toe back in the water here.

Things are heavily reliant, tho, on well behaviour, which has been problematic so far. Fingers crossed.

https://mcusercontent.com/110d0aa5f5d9bf9478796664e/files/0759ddf6-376a-4283-9072-284cba35a31e/Hurricane_Energy_Operational_update_26th_May_2020_RB.pdf?utm_source=H%26P+Master+Contact+List+%28Sements+and+Tags%29&utm_campaign=0d20285f30-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_07_02_10_23_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_dd4f91613c-0d20285f30-98981107

Good luck with GGP. I have a very small interest in their success thru my (again small) holding in MTR.

No offence taken ; appreciate your expanded reasoning. Perfectly sensible, as a hard Brexit is looking more and more likely.

Your observation "There's a lot of recruitment in portfolio, not an area I really like" is generally a view I share.

But the partners here all focus on recruitment in defensive areas, like healthcare or IT, as far as I can see.

"IMO it will be a private sale probably with S & S involved.
They are financiers with City contacts."

Let's hope so. I would expect S&S to be cute enough to line something up if possible. But any insti taking them will be ware that RBD is trying to avoid a SP fall, and will bargain hard for a deal below then current SP...…..so it might end up pulling it down anyway. Here's hoping...….that should be the top up time!

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/920295/duke-royalty-limited--doing-just-fine--by-maintaining-a-diversified-portfolio-despite-pandemic-920295.html

never, what is your understanding of "subsurface"?

subsurface
NOUN
the stratum or strata below the earth's surface.

What fundamentals?

The SP is where it is due to PoO and geological uncertainty, after a string of subsurface disappointments. What will move it significantly upwards (or downwards) is unpredictable, bcos those 2 factors will CHANGE fundamentals.

PoO is of course a basic risk I all oil stocks (tho some here have often overlooked it).

But the SP is where it is today due to subsurface issues. We can try to make our best guesses about those, but they are basically uncertain. This will multibag if those issues resolve, and will fall further if they get worse.

Any other analysis is noise, really.

Hmm. given all the caveats re pricing, and RBD's discretion ove its use, is it really a death spiral finance?

Only if RBD are seen to be in dire need of finance, and other avenues closed, does it become so, I suggest.

And, of course, if we see success at WN this year there is always a good chance they will raise again, at a much higher price than now.

Persona;;y I wish they would stop raises until they have monetised at least one asset, but there it is.

Trying to get a handle on likely newsflow here, from recent RNSs I assume ;

EWT - announcement anytime re all kit now on site, test commencement.....? results.....?

WN B

Access track complete - end June
Drill site ready - end July
Spud 01 Aug

Parta

IMIC 1 Test commences - June, results..../

IMIC 2 Drill start July/Aug

I know I've ignored Cali.. anybody like to correct or confirm my estimates?

NPVs are just an accounting tool, no company ever reaches a MCap of their NPV - and those NPVs are in any case only as good as the assumptions therein.

My guess is that 25% of NPV, if the NPV is calculated reliably, might be a more achievable aspiration in the event of a sale.

That said, there is scope for considerable upside both from EWT and WN B, not to mention Parta, et al.

So whilst I'm not bold enough to put numbers on it, it seems to me the upside here is huge ; consider the raise at .9p, the 2019 high of 1.4p just on WN, and hope for a good result at Parta, and who knows where this could be by end 2020.

Drills have to come good, tho……..!

Hmm.

Anyone any comments?/

This is a departure from the existing pf.

Lease expiry in 2023.....what will retail look like then, could Sburys walk maway?

Makes you wonder why hey were being so damned obstructive previously.

I find it hard to believe a sudden onset of bureaucratic benevolence ; wonder if someone was twisting their arm previously.

Been hearing that story for 6 years.

Big oil is all out of capital, listen to Trice dismissing talk of farm ins on CMD.

That said, one day it will happen ; tho atm the lost likely suspects would be those with capital ; private equity.

Really/ How do you know?

V interesting,. Mb that wall of Saudi crude from April's ramped up output (past 12M BD) is reaching Europe.

I read in recent days that the storage build in US is slowing, and tank tops may not be reached. I am not convinced, at least until we get some clear evidence of major economies leaving lockdown without a second wave.