Member Info for Genghis15

dryland you hit the nail on the head.

I am posting links to negative news bcos that's what's out there. If you were to go back far enuff you would see much positivity from me. Times change.
I post on HUR mainly cos I've been here a long time, have been to AGMs, met directors, and followed the journey.

I do occasionally post elsewhere, but this is the share I am best informed on.

know a thing or 2 about oil trading. I imagine I will be scolded once again for posting negatively, but realism intrudes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-03-27/oil-needs-to-drop-10-to-match-demand-trafigura-s-luckock-says-video?sref=5F8Ao01j

Surprised not to see a bit more chat here. It looks a pretty safe, high yielding investment in uncertain times.

Cebo
I see both oil and economy related opinions from a lot of platforms, from the FT, Reuters, WP, NYT, Bloomberg, and many others. The articles I post are not unrepresentative. If you come across any more sunny and positive ones I should be happy to read them ; and I assure you my view is moulded by what I see, not what I want to see.

We are at the start, still of this crisis, which is why things are as they are ; and why economic news is near universally dire.

When that turns, I will happily post more cheery opinions, but I fear we have a little way to go yet.

https://twitter.com/fteconomics/status/1243025529227350016?s=20

littlened
I'm not familiar with Greenwood, and am interested in his comments. However note his caveats re "well managed" and observe who is pulling the major levers at the moment ; and how, unlike in 2008, there is little international co ordination.

This is going to ripple through the banking system in ways I am not qualified to predict, but some are clear. Forward oil hedges, for example transfer the pain into the financial sector, not avoid it altogether. Rent holidays, store closures, and bankruptcies will do the same. We are seeing the first wave at the moment, the financial strain will come later.

On the monetary/fiscal side, govt stimulus is not output, it is socialising the pain ; in this case into govt debt and, essentially, money printing, on a scale never b4 tried on a worldwide basis, not even in 2008. I don't know where that ends up ; as Greenwood says, mb if well managed it can be slowly unwound without damage. And mb not.

Finally, AWK, please stop waving the threat of the filter button as if I were a naughty child needing discipline. It is up to you if you want to read my views, not me.

Well, fair enufff.

My view is that this shock is much bigger than te events you mention, and the damage more long lived. How far that translates into long term behavioural change is unknowable. We'll prolyl need a couple of years to find out, I guess.

"little permanent damage to the world economy."

I wish. Yes, there will be a bounce back, but atm we don't know when, nor from how deep a recession. The financial measures merely cushion the pain ; lost output is lost output, gone forever.
Activity will get back to pre CV19 levels at some point, but as you allude, the company landscape will change.

So might the social and economic one. Working from home will not suddenly go back to offices ; business travel will not be immediately resumed ; and mass market aviation could take a long time to come back. This is a BIG economic shock, like none known since the end of WW2, when economies were far less interconnected.

I don't profess to know the timing of any recovery, nor the ways in which things will change. But not everything will go back to the status quo ante, that's certain.

JAdam
Your opinion is a common one among non economists.

But as with common opinions on many things, it is a failure of understand rather than the expert opinion which is at fault.

I notice that for all the hostility and disbelief here, no one has actually challenged my view of the economy generally, or the oil market in particular.

That is the issue here, not what you think of my opinions, motives, or anything else. So if my prognosis, offend, pleae tell, what alternative scenario does anyone foresee, and on what evidence?

JAdam
Incorrect. Economic forecasts may not be exact, but they are in general not far out, barring inability to foresee the unpredictable. Yes, if you put 12 in a room you get 13 opinions, and if all the economists n the world were laid end to ends, they wouldn't reach a conclusion, I've heard them all.

Why do you think so many financial institutions employ them?

I anticipated this sort of ill informed comment which is why I declared that still held a position here.

If you only want to hear the good news, you will make poor judgements. I have made no criticism of HUR. I am pointing out the dire economic situation and its likely consequences.

Nor have I been doing any trading ; not my bag. My legacy position here is underwater, and now is not the time to trade out of it. I don't intend to keep posting about my share activities ; I can't imagine why anybody would be interested. Nor can I imagine why anyone would think my views on here would have any effect on the sp.

If anybody here seriously thinks my prognosis wrong critique it. My view is that of an overwhelming majority of economists, and of an increasing no of oil analysts, and, I think, an increasing no of oil industry executives. In most of my posts I have provided links to sensible sources.
If you want to ignore that, just bcos it is negative, that's up to you.

But people who shoot messengers end up with flawed judgement ; ref the Fuhrerbunker, or, come to that, the current WH.

Dan Yergin on oil, but also the wider effects. Imho the markets still don't reflect the economic damage. In oil, even when Russia/KSa kiss and make up, the landscape has for a long time.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/24/how-stop-tsunami-surplus-oil-thats-about-slam-global-economy/

I have only a small legacy position here, so may not be fully informed as some here.

But I would be doubtful of many parties wishing to commit new capex at the moment, and mb not for the rest of the year.

Anyone want to correct me on that?

Albion
I too am largely out, mostly for the same ST reasons.
But current events allied to LT trends, and to last years campaign results, give me pause about the HUR story, and whether the huge potential they have uncovered will ever be economically recovered in a meaningful time frame.

Let's see what the eventual CMD reveals, but until the CV crisis passes, hard to call what comes next.

I no longer have the link, but there is a Russian doctor speaking out, who is being harassed/dismissed/vilified by the authorities in exactly the same as the doctor who died in Wuhan.

There are dissimilarities in data collection which render most of the national statistics, while valid in their way, poor comparators. But the Russian ones are simply falsified, authorities in denial. It will change , as it had to in china.

I believe the Russians have an inexplicable no of cases of "community acquired pneumonia", but few of CV19.
…….

That's a very strange article. The headline says one thing ; then it intrduces the NOPEC Bill, which outlaws cartels, and details how this will stop the KSA RAISING prices.

In this environment, we don't just need OPEC, we need a Super Cartel. Very credible forecasts of Q2 demand down by 20m bd. I'll say that again. 20m bd.

Albi, I suggest you revise your headline to

"UK Government doing the right thing - just 2 weeks too late. "

German stats are an anomaly due to skewed testing, og an initially young cohort, they will rise in time to look similar to other countries. Healthcare provision is not the issue - yet- but they do have more ventilators per head for when the surge comes.
Sorry I can't provide a source, but it was a reputable one, I'm sure Mr Google can find it.

https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/1241283902456635393?s=19

It looks like some sort of 3 way deal will b cooked up to limit supply. This should give poo a lift next week, combined with CMD might b a good week for HUR.
But I fear it will b a short bounce for poo. Hard to see them cutting enuff to balance the market for next 6 months.

"When manufacturing industry comes out of this enforced slump demand for petroleum fuels is likely to be so huge"

Not so. Ask any economist, the recovery will not be a sudden snap back, it will be a gradual recovery, assuming some sensible govts policies. Just getting back to previous consumption of c.100m bd is likely to take a couple years, imv.

And lots of companies are suddenly going to find that those working at home for 3 months can carry on doing it.

This is a big, big, event. Thinking things will snap back to the old normal in 3 or 6 months is misguided.