Member Info for Genghis15

Yes, all true., or, at least, most likely so.

But time IS money, and sub $30 will mean a stop to all bar already contracted capex. And/or (deep breath) finance from elsewhere, meaning partners, borrowing, or equity. Let's hope it doesn't come to that ; some fairly ruthless decisions are needed b4 CMD, imho, to contain commitments to within what can be afforded @ $30 Brent, maximum, for the next 6 to 12 months. It is much easier, LLIs notwithstanding, to ramp capex up if PoO surprises on the upside, than to cut it when it surprises on the down.

I suggest you do some arithmetic wrt cashflow @ $30 Brent, vs projected 2020 capex.

Then look at future capex required to progress Lancaster, incl debottlenecking and WOSPS tie in.

With the COVID19 hit to economy plus the OPEC/Russia oil price war, it ain't looking pretty for PoO .

And for ANY oilco, PoO is everything.

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1238073109313400833?s=20

Forget talk of manipulation, be it real or imagined.

This is what is killing HUR.

LW
I was certain it was Buffett, but it turns out it was John Maynard Keynes. Sechin, afaik, is not known for gnomic phrases, more of a muscle man.

LW
The Saudi strategy mb "irrational", as you say.

But to paraphrase Buffet, they can stay irrational longer than you (Russia, shale, (HUR?) or all of us) can stay solvent.

Hopefully it's all a big bluff. But if it's not.......

But will they need to? Plenty of CEOs do non exec jobs on other Boards, especially where there is no commercial overlap, as in this case.

I don't understand this talk of manipulators in the current circumstances.

Brent has tanked, and could tank further, as we see the start of the biggest oil market price war for decades. If, and I know it is if, it continues, the implications for cash flow, capex. and debt servicing (CBs, in HUR's case) are profound.

ALL oilcos are suffering, and small ones especially.

Saw that earlier, surprised to see him taking an executive role.

More shock and awe....KSA orders Aramco to increase capacity to 13m bd. If they carry thru on this, it will indicate they plan for a much bigger long term market share, and mean that the price war would go on until shale is on the floor. Ugly.

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1237640584673792000?s=20

You may remember that back when the grown ups were in charge these measures were globally co ordinated to maximum effect.

This time the Me First and **** You agendas of populist politicians is ensuring fragmented actions which may well have wastefully emptied the monetary policy ammunition lockers.

It would seem that Russia is still cooing doveishly,
"Novak: It would have been correct to keep the current level of production by the OPEC plus minister did not agree to that- TASS"
"Novak: Russia continues talks with ministers of OPEC and non-Opec on the current situation on the market.- TASS"

but KSA's Gulf allies are joining the shock and awe campaign, with UAE threatening another extra 1m bd from April.

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1237683814400475136?s=20

I fear the Ugly Sisters are going to the ball, and it may be a while before Cinderella arrives.

y don't you all just filter him? He would soon go away if you did.

And it appears Russia's olive branch has been rejected, at least for now. in hats, I fear.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia-russia-raise-stakes-123106547.html

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1237458363279163393?s=20

So, we start the day with shock and awe from KSA, ;then we get dovish sounds from Russia and Iraq.

Now I see reports of KSA chartering huge amounts of tankerage into Europe for April.

If it's a bluff, they're certainly making it a convincing one.

casapinos

A very interesting link, but again begs some questions on methodology. I see the table shows an assumption of " >50%" capex cuts in the stressed scenario, ; given HUR's current capex plans are mightily unclear, I don't know how they can model that sensibly.

I guess in the end we're all left hoping for an early resolution to the current disarray.

Bloobird
Hedges can be put in place regardless ofexisting contractsa, it's as easy as going to a betting shop. Not that I'm taking any view on whether HUR should or should not have hedged.

casapinos
HUR's opex is $20 per barrel @ 20k bpd, clearly stated in presentations.
So exactly what BMO ,mean by "b/even" needs clarifying. Do they mean cashflow neutral after paying bond interest, capex commitments, or what? I think we need to see some clear methodology.

acrossthesea

The article states they have huge storage, which can be quickly tapped to boost supply. And of course, the Neutral Zone, which afaik has not yet been fired up despite KSA/KWT reaching agreement on it.

But if this was intended as a ST tactic, it may be working Like pretty much all the analysts , I thought we were in for a long haul, and could not see Putin backing down to KSA . We still might be ; but since I last typed there have been dovish noises both from Russia, and from the biggest quota cheaters, Iraq.

It is just possible that this might play out much quicker than any of us thought even a few hours ago.

This might, after all,

That 12.3m bd in April seems confirmed here.

https://twitter.com/ftenergy/status/1237308861608009728?s=20

Now, I am not an oil market trader, so I may be talking nonsense, but fwiw, the rise today looks more like a dead cat than a phoenix. After such a dramatic fall yesterday, mb traders found that whilst we know what is coming, no more physical oil is yet in the market. Probably something much more complicated to do with futures, which I am not qualified to comment on.

But as far as I can see nothing has changed since yesterday, as this tweet indicates.
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1237299239375572993?s=20

And if this is the case, and KSA really mean to go over 12m bd in April, today's rise cannot sustain for long.