Member Info for Genghis15

They certainly are, at sub $30, or more like sub $25 for WTI, and $teens for many at wellhead, not only will the rig count plummet, but some existing wells will be shut in as opex exceeds revenue. But this will still take many months, at least, to significantly reduce supply. By significant, I mean 1M bd or more.

But there are now credible forecasts for Q2 demand destruction of 20m bd, which even a NOPEC++ quota agreement isn't going to balance.
Until this virus is finished, oversupply is a big, big, problem.

https://twitter.com/MsHannahMurphy/status/1240916757805588480?s=20

This FT article explains the explosion of fake text messages which the gullible fall for.

Yes, always likely to happen at some point.

I guess this is where we find out just how much leverage the US has over KSA.

JAdam.

You are making assumptions, both on my trading behaviour, and on future SP movements, and you have no evidence of either.

LW

As I said, it's a mad world. Who'd have thought Trump would be talking of a $1000 cheque for every American, etc, ?

The normal monetary policy levers are broken ; the BoE is ****ing in the wind with its rate cut.

Huge fiscal measures required, mb UBI, mb guaranteed wages, etc, as many Scandi countries have done. It will pass ; but for the next few weeks/months some very unusual policy actions/price signals could happen.

£200bn QE too.

Cebo
Thanks for your good wishes, and my regards to your owls!
I have posted many times that while positive on HUR as a company, Poo was always my worry.

Altho the co had a less than ideal 2019 drill wise, the EPS is still good, and Lancaster will I am sure come good, along I think with Halifax.

But LT PoO worries me, and I am not convinced OPEC+ have the capability to shore it up. My position here is much reduced as a result.

Don't be TOO sure.....

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1240639250401505280?s=20

"People are now talking about a $10 target for WTI. We’d argue that in a scenario where there’s literally nowhere to put oil, it’s not inconceivable prices could go negative."

https://twitter.com/ftenergy/status/1240629299541086208?s=20

Don't say it couldn't happen : they said that about interest rates.

Of course, this is just one modelling. But it's a mad world at the moment.

If it were just the oil price war, I would agree.

But the Cv virus with its severe demand hit means that the global surplus is likely now to be in region of 10m bd. That will reduce into summer as demand slowly returns. But to balance the market, let alone use up some of the by -then -record stock overhang, is a huge challenge. Shale will decline, of course, but to get back to anything like $40 t $60 range during 2020 will require the sort of supply discipline not shown in a long time.

It's not a new drug ; it is a repurposing of an existing one.

Trials are starting with a number of drugs of this anti viral family, but don't expect any of them to be widely available for 2 to 3 months, minimum.

This is true. I would expect at CMD an update on current cash balance.

Actually, I think it most likely KSA/Russia/OPEc will find a face saving agreement. Given the scale of things. I wouldn't even rule out the US participating, unthinkable as that may sound. Don't forget the East Texas Railway Commission.

But in the absence of an out in the open agreement, a few coincidental, but face saving, forced outages might be conjured. A shutdown due to CV infections in the oilfield, a parts shortage, paint your own scenario.

But I fear the pain will have to run for another couple of weeks, to let the targeted parties learn the lesson well.

RNs tomorrow on 2019 results, which ae almost totally irrelevant in the current situation.

I would expect the co to take the opportunity to reassure on production, reservoir, and breakeven rates, and to tell us that the CMD will give details of revised work programs/capex in order to preserve cash. Some statement oh H&S re offshore workers and CV as well.

In current circumstances, that must be the bare minimum of reassurance required.

I see credible oil commentators forecasting oil in the low teens, if neither KSA nor Russia blink.

The screams of pain from Iraq, etc, are getting louder, and at some point someone with clout will be telling MBS that he is being a rhyme with grunt.

But if KSa and Russia really do ramp up in April, low teens looks a distinct possibility.

And if we were all allowed to carry on as normal, the death toll would be near 500,000, just in the UK.

I assume that is what you are advocating?

"most shale drillers will be long gone first"

True, but so mb most shareholders.

"The whole enterprise is not about maximising profit"
Not until this month. It is now!

https://www.ft.com/content/88fa4174-6499-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

$20 opex. go to HUR website for deatails

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/investors/presentations

re Russians....
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/190ed76d-dfe8-4197-9663-db750b4f5e73