Member Info for Genghis15

For anyone genuinely interested, you will need to be around in the early hours when the windscreen effect gives the best chance of meteors. Perhaps AWK can look up from his online poker game for an hour or so.

Holding $26, while WTI down to $14. I know this is driven by WTi pipe/refinery/and other issues, which do not apply to Brent to the same degree.

Yet.

If anyone can offer me a reason why Brent isn't headed the same way, given the flood of supply heading its way, I'd be interested to hear it.

There will, inevitably, be more action from OPEC+ soon, but I suspect supply reduction to the levels needed will be enforced by storage/refinery capacity issues rather than cartel actions.

Not yet read AR, but the Dr t comment above tells us that @ $26 Brent the co breaks even on cash. That is a more important no than the $17 opex figure.

But that gives no visibility on 2020 cashflow unless we see details of updated capex intentions. Hopefully CMD will clarify.

They didn't know a worldwide pandemic was coming. Big boy buys are a good sign, but the big boys are not all knowing.

NI/Bb

Do you guys do no research?
"water cut is extremely grim for such a new producer" What ? It might be in a conventional reservoir. This is not. And it's perched. No worries.
"Are there benchmark / rule of thumb type figures for this"
See above.

Forget the WC. OK, if it suddenly went to 80%, t could start to look like a problem, but even then should only last until it clears the pocket., and would just reduce oil output for a while. And if there's a good time to produce the water, do it now, while the oil its displaced is worth not much.

As ever, my concerns here are over PoO, today, tomorrow, and next year ; and how that impacts not just HUR revenue, but the appetite of partners/predators/capital providers to invest in this oilco.
hat is what is key, and imho it does not look good.

That said, there is always a counter trend opportunist about if the price is right ; but one with $Bs to develop the assets? Hmm.

Without agreeing with the words in the OP, there is a valid point, in that the CMD postponement has left an information vacuum we are entitled to feel needs addressing; more detail on EPS ops, esp wells, has been awaited for too long now.
Of course, I imagine there is much to occupy the Executive directors with issues around the summer drilling, and its delaying/postponement/ or whatever, and changing assumptions on cashflows etc.
But there are other things happening too, which HUR have so far been silent or guarded about. What is Roy Kelly's role, now he is CEO at VOG? What's happening about the FD post? do these 2 issues at BoD level portend a wider restructure/refocus?

Some sort of investor update well overdue, imo, or are they hoping to spin it out to AGM?

Flannel. No way do cuts add to 20m bd, and they are not mandated till 01 May when most will continue pumping to the max.
OPEC+ add up to 9.7m bd, less probably substantial) cheating, less a bit more "technical difficulties" delaying reductions. Add back market mandated declines in non OPEC (shale + tar sands, mostly) and it might reach 12m bd, is my guess.

So the tank filling will carry on, with est demand fall of c. 30m bd, at a rate of c. 18m bd. The question then is, when will we see the return of at least b18m bd of lost demand?

Nobody knows, of course. But even on the most optimistic guess of returning economic activity after a brief lockdown, not until late this year, imho. Maybe later.

icecream99 on the other thread has it, the market will force things.

Rangers/laser, thanks.

Ok, so nothing official from OGA. But as Rangers says "the Operator/Contractor might if they consider there likely to be logistical problems with personnel and equipment which could compromise safety of personnel/rig."

I believe HUR to be sincere in their H&S commitment, not just lip service as in some companies. But regardless of that, I can imagine any owner/Operator /contractor considering carefully starting any new drilling campaign atm, given all the issues ; and there may be insurance or HSE issues we are unaware of.
It would be v interesting if anyone knows of any other contracts that have either gone ahead, or been delayed, in the last 2 to 3 weeks or so.

"Big climb down by MBS."

Hmm. Mb. But KSA now has a 8.5m bd quota., vs c. 9.8m bd in Dec 2019. This is a cut of 2.5m bd, according to the deal, tho it is of course at least 3.5m bd less than April's early level. Russia and others are on board for much bigger cuts than the KSa originally proposed in March.

But it all seems a distraction to me ; US/Canada counting only commercial declines, much of which will only happen gradually over the next months. Russia will drag its feet for "technical reasons", as it always does, Iraq and others will cheat, so I doubt these cuts will amount to anything like the headline nos, nor make any great difference to the market balance.

Commercial reality, and the growing difficulty in some areas of logistics around pipelines, refinery demand, and rapidly filling storage will mandate supply reductions, not this deal, imho.

For PoO, the next few months still looks pretty dire to me.

I'm afraid enforced confinement has addled AWAK's head ; I'll wager it wasn't the priest, but the croupier he remembers.

Is it not likely that either HUR, possibly guided by OGA, are simply not willing/allowed to commence a fresh offshore gig while we are all under lockdown?

Have other companies commenced any new offshore contracts since lockdown?

I suppose a safe steady REIT like this just doesn't attract the comment that the get rich quick hordes look for.

But if anybody's listening, today's RNS looks good news to me.

Hmm.

Yes, a 25% discount to cash, but "At the end of February 2020, Longboat Energy's cash balance was £8,656,325 (unaudited). The Company's committed G&A costs are running in the order of £125,000 per month ", so a £1.5m pa cash burn.

Without doubt the current market will throw up some bargains, but they could be a while coming, and there could yet be a further Cv related bloodbath both in oil and wider markets..

So mb wait a bit b4 toe in water here.....

Thanks. Will keep eyes peeled.

Either Brahms or powdered....good to see others were bemused too..

This tweet, in response to analyst Roger Dirwan, sums the situation well. OPEC cuts are almost an irrelevance, physical realities in the supply chain will force shut ins, with or without cartel actions.

A very important point not many understand. Most still approach the problem from a cost angle: "at this price, they cannot produce". This is not about price anymore. At this point, logistics, freight etc. are more important factors. Export production by sea most exposed. "
"

https://twitter.com/ckazok/status/1245773944050929664?s=20

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1245821350431928320?s=20

Not sure the KSA got the message....

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/040220-first-crude-oil-cargo-set-to-be-exported-from-saudi-kuwaiti-neutral-zone

Not sure the KSA got the message....

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/040220-first-crude-oil-cargo-set-to-be-exported-from-saudi-kuwaiti-neutral-zone

Oh, one last thing!
"Well I think you couldn't be more wrong on all counts"

Yes, I might be. It's my view, and its not the only one. That's what the forum is for.