Member Info for Genghis15

This from 27 April "Testing operations at West Newton will recommence once government guidance pertaining to COVID-19 permits, the required personnel and equipment become available, and the health and continued safety of Rathlin employees, contract personnel and the community can be ensured."

Followed by this on 4 May " We secured a permit variation from the Environment Agency on Friday 24 April 2020. This enables us to
recommence our well test using a pumpjack (nodding donkey) and a smaller incinerator unit. Once the
required personnel and equipment are available the testing operations will recommence."

2 months later and no news. If this is not imminent, I think Rathlin/UJO/RBd need to update shareholders as to why not.

Capt

" it is pretty meaningless quoting profit for year based on a snapshot of today. "

It is meaningful only in context, which was to correct the Op. It is, as the Op was, a projection based on current situation as we know it.

Of course, for the year not only the production, but the PoO will be different, and unknowable.

But the current rate is the best we have to go on atm.

Nonsense.

I tire of pointing this out but at 12k bpd all in cash costs are likely c. $35, So at $42 Brent $7 profit, x12kx365 = $30m net profit, b4 any committed capex.

Stop quoting false and misleading figures.

He has provided evidence galore.

Look at CMD, and other presentations linked from the HUR website. Whether you are convinced by it is up to you, but to say he has provided no evidence is plain wrong. You just can't be bothered to study what he has put in front of us.

"HUR produces 12,000 bopd, every day."

We don't know that. It was at last RNS, we are waiting to hear if ;

12k bpd has continued with no problems
12k bpd has been sustained, but with complications
Rate has upped to 14k bpd +, no probs so far
12k has encountered problems, reduced to ? bpd

That's why the SP is where it is , in a word ; UNCERTAINTY.

BB, have you stopped to wonder WHy this is not being valued like a steady producer?

About what?

Captain, let's not split hairs, I did say c.

a few basic points regarding valuation.

1. Comparisons using Mcap, SP, etc to "other producing oilcos" are meaningless, unless you do detailed analysis of balance sheets, debt loads, production profiles, and lots else.

2.In HUR's case they are particularly invalid as we have a totally different reservoir type, there are no true analogues. Fractured reservoirs, yes, but not in NS, and not in 2.5B yo granite. That's why HUR found the oil, no one else was looking,it's a new concept.

3. Cash in bank and cash from current production is important to know, but is not comparable to other operators, who are in established fields with stable production. As malrees points out, the true all in cash cost will be c. $35 barrel atm, not the figures previously quoted at higher production.

4. Finally, this is an EPS, Early Production System, designed as proof of concept. It is not a permanent producing solution. HUR faces significant capex to extend its life beyond 3 years (2 years from now) as the OGA flaring consent is conditional on a gas solution b4 then. It needs to work, and work well ; the jury is out atm, until the next ops update.

There are huge potential reservoirs out there, but if this doesn't clean up, their development may never happen, imho

There's more, but I'll leave it there.

malrees
Fwiw, my back of envelope guesswork agrees with your $34 to $36 range, pretty much. I believe Lancaster oil may go for a small premium over Brent, but that can vary over time with refinery needs, and they in turn are particularly variable at the moment.

As the Manager, perhaps you should lead by example by playing the ball, not the man.

Whether I, we, or anyone agree with AWK, there is no need to get personal.

My post said nothing about perched water. We must all make up our own minds on that .

It is about posting links to irrelevant articles. Water from conventional reservoirs is not comparable to the situation here., as AWk says.

It's fractured basement.

hasiba, nobody minds if you don't understand ; none of us know everything here.

But at least try to realise what you don't know before you post. A morning spent on the HUR website would help.

mjga786

Nonsense, as you would know if you had been here more than 5 minutes. The Idea of AWK being part of a "gang" is laughable.

"governed by the EU".

Oh, please. Not again.

Mr Z "The bottom line is that as demand rises, the price of oil is going up, so as long as we keep producing, there is only one way for the share price to move in the long term."

Demand rising? Not back to pre pandemic levels, at least not for a year or so ; and bear in mind there is production restraint/conflict/sanctions keeping a LOT of oil off the market atm, ; chronic oversupply looks likely or some time imho. So, Poo going up? Mb, but not a given.

"As long as we keep producing". Well, amen to that, but it's the $64k question atm, isn't it, and why the SP is where it is. So again, not a given.
"there is only one way for the share price to move in the long term." Hmm. How many times have we all thought that?

No one knows., at least publicly. I suspect HUR mb as mystified as the rest of us.

I can only think that mb the situation at Spirit may have had something to do with it.

GM
Yes, I know...bhp, water cut, well interference, OWC, etc, mean it is **** or bust on the next ops update, imv.

But I do feel the new Bod have, as often happens, "kitchen sinked" all possible bad news at once to give themselves a clean sheet. Whatever the rights and wrongs of RTs departure that does at least show a more professional, big company approach to investor expectations, which may be overdone.

Those here warbling about cash balances and Mcap need to think about these issues, upon which everything depends.

Lots.