Member Info for Genghis15

No, but its the biggest one in both companies. By far.

Both cos have other assets, arguable with some sort of equivalence wrt Mcap. Yet RBDs 56% of WN is outvalued by UJOs 16.67%. weird

(fwiw, I hold both)

All a puzzle.
RBd in Jan, .70, UJO .15

Now, RBD .57, -18%. UJO .255, +70%

They have had a boost from wressle mews, but stilll....

Dc
No, i was referring to turbulence, and the OWC.

I have no idea what a Main Board is, but if this is chatter about moving to the main market, it's misplaced. No one at BoD level will be thinking about upgrading our listing until operational issues are clarified. imho.

The debt is only a problem if the wells/resrvoir don't perform.

If the water and other issues resolve there will be no problem roling that debt over, probably on cheaper terms than now. If not, then at worst the bondholders wipe out the equity.

It all comes back to the uncertainty over well performance. Everything else is noise.

Sage
"Based on 15k bopd, 43$ Brent and 18$ cash cost per barrel with 95% uptime operating Cashflow is $2.5M per week."

All in sustaining cash costs were c. $28bl @18k bpd. At 15k bpd they will be close to the $35 at which the hedge was struck, mb a touch less. Net cashflow will likely be less than $1m pw.

It's been a secret for a couple of months now. Every morning, esp Monadays, i expect a RNS to say something is happening.

It would be nice to know the reasons behind the holdup.

Ah, i missed the boat(!) with LBE, can't bring myself to buy now when I could have got in for 70p! Sure they'll do well, tho, good team.

I'm sure RB would have been vociferous in agitating for the removal of both AS and RT. Other IIs too, mb. But Kerogen ar the kingmakers., imo.
And who knows what other schemesc may be afoot.

But in the end it will all come down to the wells.

We've been saying that for 5 years. m

AWK, I have mentioned several times that RKs move to VOG may indicate a change in Kerogen's attitude to HUR.

you too, missdosh? Now, what brought you over here?

DC
Yes, that seems a possibility too.

And i think we've all rued the lack of an edit facility!

Yobbo, in the absence of any comment to the contrary, HUR are still saying perched water. Given all the modelling, all the drilling that showed a much lower OWC, I an still inclined to believe so.
Unless the OWC is much higher (and there is no other evidence of that, afaik) it would have to be a helluva long downwards fracture to draw on the aquifer. Not impossible, but at this stage imho perched water is still the default.

Agreed. New Bod downplaying expectations, hoping to outperform later.

thanks, daltry, i know.

my previous posts pointed out the downside risks, which have not come to pass. It is not all roses, and we need to see how the wells behave thru Q3. But we have avoided the worst possible outcomes, which were for WC to inmcrease dramarically, 7z to remain shut, and production throttled back. And Lincoln P&A'd.

The absence of those possible negative outcomes amounts to a huge plus as far as I'm concerned.

Ceng, yes, lost amongst all the excitable chatter here. Important in many ways, perhaps more so than the negative point about contingent resources which actually smells of over caution to me.

Bt, when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?

I should add that the field determination on Lincoln is also good news. Means no P&A ops this year, and tieback option still open, tho on ice for now bcos of Spirit situation. In turn, that means the Spirit contbn to AM debottlenecking is still possible.

I will likely post a more considered response later, when all the excitable newbies have calmed down and the bb less clogged. Meanwhile, I'll look to see iof the reaction upstairs..

You can tell the newbies, all decrying the WC.

I think this is quite a positive update given what it could have been, Production is up, 7z back online, pumps commissioned. b/e costs will have fallen accordingly. Noignificant capex in 2020 nwill bolster cash position.

The ongoing WC is not disastrous and perfectly manageable ; an increase in 6 was to be expecxted with 7z shut down ; sooner ot later thos water pocket should clear.

Thogh not universally positive, overall this is good news. Whatever happens to SP today, the future of the company looks much better to me today than it did yesterday.