Member Info for Genghis15

gonzo
I live near the A31 London to Bmth, and it was chokka last avo/eve, normal Fri in August stuff. And it will be chokka Sun avo going the other way. Add in the Hotels are reportedly full tooo, and those beaches will make a few headlines I imagine.

I imagine they've been doing all that sort of thing since FOIL, the latest interruption will surely have been closely monitiored but if it had shown any significant change I'm sure we'd know by now.

Bloo/AWK

Yes, you both have good points. most have given up here, and written ofv both Dr T and his model.

I agree there is still a possibility (slim, imho) that the well issues clear up, and his model is more or less proved right.

Only time will tell, and if that were to be the case, huge upside here. But otherwise.........

Bloo
Clearly the Bod no longer believe that model, they believe it more likely well behaviour is consistent with a higher OWC, meaning we are pulling on the aquifer, likely thru a downward fracture leg(s).

If they think that firmly enough both to sck the co founder and RNS it, it's hard to hold to the original theory.

Good q, DC.

garyn

Like a no of others I've not seen the debt traded anywhere. Can you point to it ? Is there a min amount, often that's set at a level that precludes PIs.

Certainly the risk/reward looks better on the dent than equity, give that equity wipeout would precede debt default/

"Yes S&S would have known the EWT timeline, when they put the Proposed Deltic Offer forward"

If so, why didn't they tell shareholders?

Both here and on UJO, I'm hearing so many ppl saying delay is good operationally, etc.

First, no, it's not, even if it might be Covid inevitable.

Second, these delays, we're told around Dutch rig crews and other issues, must have been apparent to Rathlin for months.

It is appalling that this sort of imjnfo is not communicated to shareholders in a more timely manner.

When CEOs only submit to interviews by paid mouthpieces like Steffi or Malcy, these Qs don't get asked.

It is positive, but there's a lot of hope and uncertainty there. No forecast for the divi, either, which is what most are here for.

Wiltsman
Your post is all well and good, but unexpected delays are frustrating for investors in many ways. It's not just the waiting.

It's the fact many PIs ignore ; that all the time you own a share you are exposed to macro risk, as well as company risk

Macro risk is high atm, with the virus and all the fiscal and monetary issues that flow from it. The market could easily have a fit of the vapours this autumn, while investor are stuck in a share they hoped would have matured before then.

So some will certainly have reduced/sold out for that reason. Savvy investors are keeping a goodly propn of prtfolios in cash or gold atm.

"this excellent news from West Newton has not seen a rise in both these companies share prices today." because many, like me, have been exdpecting spud by now. Instead it's a "few weeks" away.

Whether my expectations were justified or not, that's why the SP reaction today.

Capt, I haven't checked, but I suspect Lanc is held on the Bs at sunk cost.

Nobody knows. It's somewhere between 50p and nothing, depending on well behaviours in the next 6 months. DYOR.

Try engaging with the facts as stated. Am i incorrect in any way?

In fact, I haven't even mentioned the bonds. If EPS performs, they will either be easily refinanced, or be converted. But if not, they could wipe out the equity.

Again, it all comes down to the wells, and to the revised OWC, and therefrom the reservoir size.

1.5p easily achievable, imho. It was 1.4p last year.BUT......we need Parta to not deliver a knock back, and we need WN to deliver.

Too many here are taking both for granted, Parta in particular.

Seems to me a measure of uncertainty over Parta mb weighing here ; but the main thing dragging on the SP is the Deltic offer.

I cannot see the sense in it, and hostile offers like this often damage the bidder. It is certainly a distraction, is at odds with the corporate vision I thought I was buying into, and is a puzzle why it was even entertained without the support of deltic's largest shareholder.

Let's hope S&S withdraw it asap.

Al utter *******s.

Current production 17 k bpd, less 10% downtime = 15,300 bpd annualised. B/even cash costs at this level are $30 or so. Brent $43.

$13 X 15300 X 365 = $24m pa gross profit, subtract committed capex, which is not clear.

hat will still leave a healthy surplus, BUT ;

1. EPS has less than 2 years b4 flaring consent expires. Renewal cannot ne taken for granted, and if gtranted, it would only be for a short time, say another year, to enable the gas pipeline installation. Capex for that, on a go it alone basis (Spirit deal looks dead atm ) not sure, but a lot of $ms.
2. The EPS is not standalone ; it is proof od concept. The value in this co is in proving that Lancaster has 500MB of oil, and then finding a partner to spend $100Ms to decelop it.

3. All of the above only works if the EPS works. It mkay. It may not. There have been many unanticipated problems, the Bod have clearly lost confidence in the visionary founder, and the modelling is in doubt.

In short, the jury is out, ladies and gentlemen. Place your bets. But remember the SP is where it is for a reason, and that reason is the high degree of uncertainty.

I bought UJO at .15p on 19/20 May. At that time RBd was exactly where it is now, .61p.

UJO up over 90%, RBD static. i don't need to resrare the similarities, but the share prices are out of kilter.

The flaring consent certainly doesn't.

Why are u comparing 18k to17k? the correct comparators should be 20k/17k.

That would be the hope ; as I understand it (as a non oilie, non geo) using the ESP on 7Z reduces the draw. Whether that means they are hoping to draw less on the water pocket, by pulling more from nearer the base ; or whether it means by reducing the pull they hope to pull less from further along and drain the pocket faster, I don't know.

There has to remain a risk that it is a very big pocket, and/or it is connected to the aquifer by a long downward leg fracture. But RT had me pretty convinced with his explanations on perched rather than aquifer.