Member Info for Genghis15

"What puzzles me is why the creditor banks are stalling even now,"

What makes you think they are?

The case today clears the way, but t crossing and reaching detailed agreement will still likely take a week or two, I should think,. Not too long now, tho.

Hold these hard now .

The Twitter rampers will be all over this over the next week, that alone could easily see another 20%+, mb even 50%, even b4 next news, imho.

Hold these hard now .

The Twitter ramoers will be all over this over the next week, that alone could easily see another 20%+, mb even 50%, even b4 next news, imho.

Dutch rig and crew, remember? Brexit, Covid, etc. And what about new quarantine rules, £1750ph plus 2 weeks dead time.

UJO is not a comparative, huge upside from WN inflates their price.

Company have guided b/e production 400k tonnnes, but will process double that in 2021. Work u thos extra carats within guidance and 2021 net profit exceeds current Mcap. I expect that's too optimistic, but even if you halve that net profit expectation this looks way too cheap.
there are risks ; weather, Covid, and operational disruption during transition to the upgraded plant. But the risk/reard balance looks good imho.

This share appears very thinly traded. A decent upgrade on Friday (and why else would the co be tweeting it so aggressively?) could well see a significant rise, I'm guessing.

https://twitter.com/_BlueRock/status/1356532396070490114?s=20

This just tweeted again. same as yday. Really waving a big flag here, market not waking up to it.

Actually, some of them are still saying fo imminent buy buy, buy.

I cant see y that would be the case, but I suppose you never know.

I keep looking for reasons why yis SP should go higher in the short term, and struggle to see any. Yes, oc, if a FO appeared tomorrow, bingo.

But atm, with the recent upgraded prospect news out of the way, its a small oilie with little cash, looking to go drilling for oil but needing a deep pocketed partner. Data room open, but these things normally take a long time to do DD, and we are at a time of slashed capex budgets. I strugle to se why a major woul;d rush in here atm, before at least someone strikes a viable find on adjacent acreage.

That being the case, and given the need to keep the lights on, at some point in 2021, will another raise be needed? And even if not, what reason is there (absent the aforementioned inprobable early FO) for the SP not to drift lower?

Cash is key, as ever. warrants with an exercise price of 1.5p are not relevant at current sp. Burn rate is unclear, but if no FO arrives obvs co will have to raise again, either to keep the lights on, or to pregress the licence.

so its a straight bet on a JV coming in atm. Will it happen, if so when?

I don't know, but suspect a successful ajacent drill might be needed b4 it happens. Anyway, I'm sitting it out for now, but if a FO arrives soon, then I wish current holders well.

Completely right, Malcy is a hired gun and shoulod be treated with caution. I still find it worth reading his blog, tho a healthy scepticism is needed.
That fiver may well turn into a tenner, or even a score. But not tomorrow, and mb never. DYOR, but I think we will see a healthy rise as we get to the EWT.

Yes, but on 2 of the last 2 the cap is /%, and i one the yr review is years away.
And if interest rates rise with inflation, as would seem likely, the gearing can quickly become a disbenefit.

On current expectations of inflation/interest rates, everything is fine and dandy. But higher inflation/rates would provide a double squeeze, at the same time as markets would look for higher equity yields. The caps seem to me heavily weighted in favour of the lessees in that scenario.

Malcy, not me........but beware, he's used it b4....

I know it Malcy, but "How often can you buy a ten pound note for a fiver?"

https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/01/oil-price-genel-ujo-reabold-vog-and-finally/

Forget the placing, it's over.

The important line in the RNS is "Rathlin is currently progressing permitting on the B-1Z well and this process is expected to be completed in the coming weeks with the test commencing in Q1 2021. The A-2 well is expected to be tested following the B-1Z well. The Company and operator expect to commission an updated Competent Person's Report ("CPR") in Q2/Q3 2021, following the results of testing on the A-2 and B-1Z wells."

So, delay is down to more permits (who knew? I thought it was all permitted!) but most importantly, will commence in Q1.

Appreciate debt gives gearing, but a low inflation cap could make that a net disbenefit if interest rates rise. Current expectations are low, but things change.

Ambitious
Mb we just have different twitter feeds.
Interesting, anyway.

GBP was being ramped on Twitter the last few weeks.
It was very noticeable that those doing so were silent today.

My conclusion is that they have taken profits, and will be ramping again once they see an upcoming news event.

A serious question for those better informed here than me - i confess to being rather under researched here, compared to what I would normally do if i were a LT holder. (As I posted b4 on a deleted thread, I exited this am at a SP that looks very fortunate indeed in hindsight).

For all the prospectivity here, and potential very large resource, obviously unlocking tht value is reliant on a farm in. Hopes for that are high, given the majors present on neihgbouring blocks. So far, so good. But presumably those adjacent majors thought they were picking thew blocks with the best prospectivity, the best CoS, geologically and commercially.

So, unless somethng indicates now that GBP acreage s more atractive, why is everyone so confident of major interest here?
This is a tough time for offshore projects, with majors' capex budgets for new projects slashed as never b4. There needs to be compelling reasons to be so confident, and I'm hoping someone can point them out to me.