Member Info for Genghis15

Further investment in Corallian was inevitable. S&S had 2 choices ; wtite off the investment or double down. They've made their choice. Corallian have so far been a disaster, tho the current projects do look more promising. But they are not terribly exciting, and would not, I think, have attracted RBD's attention if we were not already investors in Corallian.

It's all on west Newton,and all else is distraction. Oh, and, of course, a drag on the SP, as this morning has shown. But a fleabite compared to WN potential.

Interesting, lots of possible outcomes can be guessed at.
MKa could be pressured by Whitehall/Pentagon to renegotiate with a Western partner: a Western co could be pushed to take it out ; etc.

Might need serious political involvement, tho, and $$s, to keep Malawian govt onside ; Chinese interests will, I think, have sweetened their path, and might be hard to unravel?

Certainly interesting times.

"well 6 is still flowing at a commercial rate."

Is it? what's a commerciak rate?

Is it generating enuff cash to repay the bonds, plus the equity cost of capital, plus decomm costs, plus the necessary gas solution? (NB no word on this from HUR/OGA; permit to flare was 3 years only, I think!)

Is it commercial enuff to justify FFD?

the market is saying no to the above.

Elementary
So, you think CA know better than the BoD,That the Bod want to sink the sP Can't see why they woul want to do that.

Consider the record.

Trice has a dream, drills holes, finds oil. posits a huge resource,.

Drills on Warwick, Halifax, Lincoln eith fail to flow or diisappoint. Lancaster waters out 1 well, has a big WC in t'other. Trice looks wrong.

Mb he's right all along, but the drilling record doesn't read that way to me. Nor to the BoD, nor to the industry which never believed him.
And CA's geos will be telling RB what he wants to hear just as much as the CPR writers are influenced by HUR,

You wanna bet on CA, go ahead. long odds, tho, imho.

If you put weight on CA buying you are backing RB's judgement over the BoD, who should know more than him. Further, he is up to his neck here and doubling down hoping he's rigtht. Big gamble.

marc

My comment was aimed purely at pointing out that past SP highs are an invalid reference point, Compare Mcaps, that's the measure.

As for coming over as pessimistic, well, that's a judgement for others.

All i will say is that while there is a lot to be optimistic about here, I have learnt the hard way not to get carried away while there are still hurdles to cross.

First is the 2 EWTs, which many are taking for grante. High CoS, imho, but if there is one thing I have learnt it is that NOTHING subsurface is nailed on until its proven.

That hurdke, if crossed, will see a huge rerate, imho.

t action.

macro

You too misread my post, there is nothing negative in there, just facts.

I think if you read my post properly you will find we are in agreement. I was merely pointing out the SP comparisons are invalid.

3 Sep2019 this hit 1.375p . 4,063,963,810 shares in issue = £56m

Today 0.78 x 8,461m = £66m

We do, however own a lager slice of WN, ; not done the sums but sure that more than compensates ; also have an additional well.

So while I don't see a return to, or past, previous highs as unlikely, bear in mind it is not a straightforward comparison.

Compare Mcaps, not SP.

"CA isnt concerned.", my arse.

Bersnstein is likely worrying about his job. He bet big on HUR, and has to bet bigger to cover his arse. For LTHs here I hope it works, but not for his sake.
It would not surprise me if he were polanning to find a riendly TO partner here, but the question is the reservoir, not the management.

Wll the current wellwater out? Will a new well work well, not work at all, or prove Trice right?

Anyone invested here now is just taking a huge subsea gamble, the odds on which do not look good to me.

but wtfdik, dyor, and gamble away if you want.

But dont come back in 3 months or 1 year, blaming Trice, the BoD, or anyone else.

Capt

Thanks, same to you.

I cannot understand the anger amongst many here at latest RNS, which as Malcy observed today "there is no news, the summary CPR was ‘broadly consistent’ with the estimates provided by the company back in September 2020" His full comments here https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/04/oil-price-dgo-hurricane-and-finally/

The point is, this was flagged by the BoD 6 months ago, and should surprise no one.

Trice pursued what he saw as a huge opportunity. He was wrong, it appears, tho the article does leave open a small chance he may be proved at least partially right, and which he insisted up until his departure, and almost certainly still does.

It's no good blaming Trice ; like many, I trusted not him alone, but the CPR writers, and a few other factors ; but that's AIM. Like many, I took a beating here, but the only person I blame for that is me.

Lessons learned, hopefully.

Co has $220m debt, a reservoir that doesn't work as planned, and a well that could water out at any time.

Stop blaming the BoD, and look at facts. No Bod can change facts, which became clear a year ago now.

Can anyone explain the meaning of the 2nd sentence below from RNS "Metal Tiger holds a conditional 2% net smelter royalty over all KML’s wholly owned licences, being seven licences covering, in aggregate, 6,650km2 (together, the “Royalties”). On completion of the Transaction, it has been agreed that the conditions attached to the Royalties will fall away. "

"Board has also decided to explore all strategic alternatives," is code for "current strategy is a complete failure".

The co is now in such a weak position I cannot see why any FI partner would proceed, when it could just take the co out (IF it were so inclined) for nearly nothing, or just pick up the licences on expiry.

Whateve is around the corner, it does not bode well for sholders, imv.

price action certainly looks like a placing in the works, But would they really do so, so soon after the last one? Got my doubts.

If there IS an RNS in the works - and it looks like a leaky one to me - suspect its a WN delay.

But who knows. mb just nervous PI selling feeding off itself.

Wilson "Surely that should indicate imminent completion now restrictions are being lifted?"

Mb. Mb not. Remember our drilling was done by a Dutch crew. Is it the quarantine regs holding things up? Or will the EWT be done by a different crew?

Either way, messaging from RBd and UJO has been very misleading if EWT news is not forthcoming shortly.

It's a small difference between spectacular and speculative.....

Its worth remembering that this SP touched 1.40 post WN discovery.

Yes, there has been some dilution, but most of that has gone into an increased share of the project.
I'm not forecasting a rise to that level imminently, but it is certainly not out of the question by autumn.