Member Info for Genghis15

"the state will be slapped down privately and disappear into the distance," will do nothing to reassure markets that the issue has gone away. We need a resolution of the affair that is clear and open, or as near as can be in this jurisdiction.

Anyway, the cttee will have to report, eventually, on the issue, so something will have to be said publicly.

" the disconnect has gone on too long and the market needs the numbers now, "

Well, more good numbers may help a little, but we all know there's an elephant in the room, and until it's firmly shown the door, led away, and the door closed behind it, don't expect much of a re rate. It crashed into the room in late Sept, a resolution was supposed to happen within weeks, and still we hear nothing.

There's little point going over this again, but while some think any claim can only be minimal, others see potential for rather more significant damage. Clearly the markets are unsettled by it, and until that's put to bed more good nos, even good news on Douta, Cote d'Ivoire, etc, is not gonna move the needle much.

Worth a read, tho the automated voiceover is irritating, suggest turning off!

https://substack.com/home/post/p-152500947

"How can De La Rue still have a market cap of 193 million when it has already sold half of itself for 300 million?" Debt + pension deficits mostly answer that. The rest represents the risk of the deal not closing, imho.

Let's hope you're right, it's been a long wait for some of us.

"The £1.5m mcap isn't a realistic valuation, it's a consequence of sentiment" Mb.

Hannam put a value of $10.5m on gold/U combined, so they agree. But..broker valuations always flatter, and even they don't come close to "our £50 million pound uranium asset".

But none of those projects are easily fungible, nor desirable enough for potential funders to use them as security.

What's left is a shell, with the ghost of a transformational deal that could just about rise from the grave, but will still be a shadow of it's former self.

I don't think that's his style, but who knows. Like all tipsters/analysts, he gets a lot wrong, and tends to over egg the +ves imho. But I think he gets it right here.

Of course the 38% was a problem. It was a gift to existing holders, which new investors clearly balked at.

Anyway, that's the past. Future? Well, doesn't look good for holders as far as I can see. With that piece of instant value creation off the table, what's left ?

Not much that I can see, tho I've been wrong before.......but usually to the downside!

Well, that's a nice row of eggs, but a bit early to be calling them chickens!

As others have commented b4, it's assumed that lease payments + residuals at least clear the debt. And of course, a stratyegic review is still in progress, so all options are on the tsable for full or partial sales of leases/assets and debt redemption/shareholder capital returns.

Couple of sizeable buys early doors, £110k + £381k.

Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/all-enemies-foreign-and-domestic?publication_id=1859293&post_id=152752785&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=6vzgn&triedRedirect=true

Well, that's where we disagree. If the federal cttee manage to avoid the temptation to grab a bit for themselves, I'll be relieved.

Any politician in any jurisdiction worth his salt will have eyes out for the opprtunity to trumpet that they've wrested a few $$s from greedy investors (yes, us!) for the benefit of the electorate whose resources are being plundered. It mb an unfair representation, but it don't 'arf win votes.

Anyway, ;nuff said from me. We all just have to wait and see.

B66

My pointwith the linked dat awas simply to show that Nigeria/Mali are not so dissimilar in regards to those measures.

I don't fundamentally disagree with your points, nor with HarChris' preceding one, just think the potential for an unfavourable outcome is being underestimated on the bb.

Well, what do I know? No more than anyone, which is why I take notice of those indeprendent assessments and apparent market sentiment. I tend to agree that THx's local directors should give them some help in negotiating thru the risks, but certainly won't make them immune.

While we wait, the cash piles up. But the optimists here ignore that as well as making THX a tempting investment proposition, that cash pile is also a magnet for the very activities we are discussing.

Fwiw I still hold here for tat potential upside, but i'm not closing my eyes to the risk.

HarChris

Your faith in the rule of law in Nigeria is boundless, al most touching. The SP indicates , I think, that the market takes aifferent view. It may not be Mali, but at no 120 it's just 4 places above. https://worldjusticeproject.org/rule-of-law-index/global/2024/Nigeria/

As for corruption, well, it's much the same, of course. Except it isn't ; Mali ranks less corrupt in this list, at no 136 against 145.

The situations are certainly different, but "worlds apart"?.

The Malian govt still creating nervousness for all W African miners today. Afraid this overwhelms any +ve sentiment from the cash projections until we get some clarity on the Osun issue.

No excuses, it's a shambles. Whether the fault is MNRG or HL, it's inexcusable. As usual, PIs get the short straw.

Sorry, inserted my coment in thev middle, rather than the end, of the quote I pasted. Hope it makes sense

In part,,,

"Even without the tax issue, Thor remains lowly valued compared to other gold miners. Its EV/Ebitda ratio is just 1.5 times. Similarly sized Caledonia Mining (CMCL) is on almost four times despite a recent share price drop. Lawson added that Nigeria had “huge potential” in terms of its geology, but investors and fellow explorers had remained wary. The sector has been in an M&A rush recently, with growth projects on low valuations bringing on suitors. Lawson said there had been some interest in Thor but “push hasn’t come to shove”.

But tbf this needs to b read within the whole article on heightened jurisdictional risk in lower income countries, such as Mali. Mb worth just rewgistering, you can usually get an article or 2 for free that way.

His company has generated average net income per quarter this year of almost $20mn, and has a market capitalisation of just over $140mn. As the company will make its last debt payment in the coming weeks, this net income will climb next year, as well. With a view to driving growth and bringing on more investors, the company is also developing a larger Senegalese project and in September bought a Côte d’Ivoire exploration prospect from Endeavour Mining (EDV), expanding into much better-rated jurisdictions."