Member Info for Genghis15

POG still heading down, likely Trump traders getting out and into crypto. Not sure if that's a good idea, but who knows. It's the way the wind's blowing.

Remember that trade was likely behind much of the rise from sub $2k over the last year, and remember that 2 years ago POG was sub $1700. There is no saying how far this correction goes (or if it reverses!) but nothing can be taken for granted. After Trump takes office, we are in for a bumpy ride, one way or another.

Gold could be $3k next year, or half that. More uncertainty out there than normal, imho.

They have a dysfunctiona;l finance function and no CFO, who knows if accounts were even properly prepared, let alone properly audited?

And even if they were, obvs Shishir doesn't want them out there 'cos they'll be pretty ugly. Dead co walking.

How do you get to "t sounds like that will be the worst case scenario" ?

There are still claims for unspecified payroll and other taxes, as well as environments damages alleged of unquantifiable amounts. Whilst things may turn out as you suggest, to think they are the "worst case scenario" seems quite wrong to me.

So far the state govt has been awarded its claim in one area, has compelled an opening of the books on another (which opens the door to all sorts of spurious claim possibilities) and stll has the environmental claims in reserve. And we have no idea if the Federal govt will jump in for its share too. Imv your prognostications lie at the extremely optrimistic end of the spectrum.

Also imho, that's why the SP is where it is, not over 30p. Combine Nigeria's already bad rep with a pretty overt tax grab by the state govt and it's not a rosy scenario.

Hopefully you are right, and I'm being overly pessimistic. We just have to wait and see.

"So far no RNS which suggests that nothing from the committee report has led to anything material that needs to be immediately communicated with the market. "

Well, the cttee hasn't reported yet, which suggests to me investigations, negotiations, and conclusions are ongoing. Simply nothing tyo say except that uncertainty continues. Will the Osun govt be s;apped down? Will they get a pound of flesh? Will the Federal govt feel the need to grab a few $$s as well?

We just don't know, end of really.

What I would say to those pointing out that it is not in Nigeria's interest to undermine confidence with unwarranted tax grabs, is that expecting politicians to pursue LT national interest over ST personal/political gain is rarely justified. My best guess is some sort of messy compromise that is formally legal but shakes a few $$s to everyone , but wtfdik.

Here can be no clarity on US grants until we hear from the Trump admin on repealing the IRA, etc. Uncertainty rules.

Musk isn't interested in grids. Just tariffs on BYD.

We know Rob M1 is trolling us here, but it is fair to poiint out that with a federal cttee looking into all aspects of THX's affairs, it is in the spotlight. Altho the inquiry is nominally to investigate the merits of the Osun tax grab, I think I posted previously that when attention is drawn to cash piles there is always a temptation to grab some, especially when it's a natural resource , and especially gold, rather than see profits flow out of the country. It works v well politically.

Not so well for LT investment, of course, and we must hope cool heads prevail.

But with a spotlight now shone on THX's growing cash generation, f ederal politcians will find it very tempting to help themselves to a slice, and once that line is crossed there's no saying how big a slice.. So RobM1 may have a point, whether we like it or not. And he may not. we just don't know.

Unusual to see a 4% rise here on no news, wonder why?

Interesting article, almost reads as if THx may have been pro active in it's emergence. Anyway, so much for " The probe panel has seven days to submit its report." as reported here 3 weeks ago. https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2024/10/11/segilola-vs-osun-gold-mining-firm-continues-operations-after-court-restrains-govt/

HarChris

Sorry if you think I'm "twisting your words". It's how I read them, and the gist of your most recent post also puts much faith in the legal process...or so it seems to me.I am not trying to pick an argument here, just stating my views, not trying to misrepresent yours. I have acknowledged, I think, that none of us knows for sure how this plays out. . The law will play a part, but imho a much smaller part than public statements suggest.

I think it's fair to say that you place rather more trust than I do in the legal position.

Even time may not tell where on the spectrum of legality these events fall, as any eventual resolution will have to be legally sound even if some, ahem, "extrajudicial" factors are behind it.

Luke

Agree completely

Loudspeaker

Yes. "The Nation" is certainly taking the line that the state is out of order, but "neither the governor of Osun State nor any senior government official has made an official visit to the Segilola site since assuming office. Given the level of investment, employment and development SROL has brought to the state, such an oversight raises questions about the basis for these serious accusations". I You can anything or nothing into that, but could it just be hinting at corruption?

HarChris

Ok, you stick to the line that all will be resolved according to the law. Mb you're right, but I've set out my view below. Only time will tell.

I'm just going to labour this point one more time, as I'm not sure I've been clear enough.

Many posters focusing on the niceties of the law, of contracts, constitutional position, and the accuracy or otherwise of the Osun State's position and claims. I am making the point that this is not a Tier 1 jurisdiction, where those factors have force and are not easily overturned. This is a jurisdiction ranked 9th in Africa, and 90th in the world, as an attractive investment destination.

This is a heist, not a legal dispute. The legal avenues will have to be contested, but they will not alone lead to a resolution. The more THX accumulates cash at high POG, the more attractive a target it becomes. A resolution will come only when the main actors in Osun State and the Federal govt have extracted their price, whatever that may be. By escalating to the federal level, THX may even have just increased the that price, not avoided it, by bringing more snouts into the trough.

Some may still disagree, and that's fine by me. I'm just trying to make my position clear.

Many here keen to emphasise that the sums claimed are small and can be easily settled. Mb that's right.

But mb not. An alternative view is that whilst some of the current demands appear small, there is a bigger picture. Osun is also raising issues of env degradation in the $Bs. I have little doubt these allegations are unfounded, or at the very least hugely exaggerated.

Until a settlement an be reached in this, nobody knows where its going. We all know the rule of law is only part of the story here, this is a heist, and it's going to hang a big cloud over THX for some time.

Yes, spot on from ST. I added on the latest results, v pleased I did.

" you worry about Nigeria joining not as full members BRICS ?" No, I don't worry about it at all. I was just trying to point out to the OP and others that this should not be seen as a positive move for Nigerian governance.

I quite agrre re POG and US elections, and THX was, and partly still is, in part a hedge against that.

Why do you doubt them?

My point is that the BRICS group are not a shining example of good governance. Good luck getting your money out of Russia ; India, China, have issues in that direction, and all 5 BRICs are either one partystates and/or have had strongman leaders who disrespect and often override the rule of law.

Look at the list of attendees and it's a list of unsavoury regimes with few investor safeguards. It is certainly not a good thing to see Nigeria lean in that direction, unsurprising tho it might be. Gold backed currency is a political move by Russia et al to weaken the US hold over the international system. The POG will likely be more influenced by the actions of the next US President than any BRICS actions.

The principal risk here is governance, not a few $$s on the POG.

Pretty standard CEO spiel tho, isn't it?

Back in April it seemed not ; we had, we were told, aoffers on the table and a deal which would finalise by end June. Now we don't. I'm sure one day the co will come good. I'm just not sure when.

Joining BRICS does not sound to me like a vote for good governance.

"They should however be building a bigger cash pile"

A tempting approach, but quite wrong in the context of miner in jurisdictions like CAML/. Reward s/holders and get your profits out while you can. Raise debt for new mines, rinse and repeat.