Member Info for Genghis15

There's only 2 of these posters. I have them filtered. Why don't you guys just filter them ? If we all did that they'd go away. Commenting on their behaviours just gives them the attention they seek. C'mon, it's what the button's for.

So, anyone pointing out risk is a "bedwetter"? Come on, this is a chat board, not the 5th form common room.

This Q the big news will be.........resolution of the Osun dispute, we hope. More important than anything else atm, imv.

Those saying the amounts are insignificant, etc, should bear in mind the words of the osun state governor on Oct 28.

“We will submit our environmental inspection report. We will show the world that even a billion dollar cannot achieve the remediation and rehabilitation of our damaged environment. It is actually worrisome that an internationally quoted mining company will neglect and attempt to evade the care for the environment it violated”

https://www.osunstate.gov.ng/2024/10/osun-thors-dispute-governor-adeleke-to-get-osun-shares-and-segilola-to-pay-taxes/

Yes, understood, Balanced66. I can seePoG going higher as the MAGA agenda plays out, but parabolic as the poster's scenario? Well, it would not be my prediction, but it would be unwise to rule anything out while we have these new hands at the planetary controls.

And I would agree. But if I were a host govt I might want 100% of whatever I deemed the "windfall" element. Not that I'm expecting that, nor, at this stage, a windfall tax at all. Just highlighting that once the concept becomes currency, it is impossible to know where it goes.

Anyway, fingers crossed none of this comes to pass. With only THX in country, gold is a very small part of the extractive economy, so mb it will still escape. We'll see.

We are all aware of the cash being generated here and the huge vdiscount to valuation on normal metrics.

But those getting carried away with the PoG would do well to remember that Nigerian lawmakers will be as aware of that as we are. Hopefully the Osun issue will be sorted, but it has shone an unwelcome spotlight on the co just as it has begun to hoard cash.

The concepts of "resource nationalism", and "windfall tax" should be borne in mind. If I were Segun, I would be shovelling some cash out the door asap. Divis, buybacks, more drilling, you name it. I'm surec he's thought of that, but it's rather too easily dismissed by many here.

Yes, v interersting, Thanks from me, too, I lapsed my subs so paywalled for me atm without that link!

I have complained to HL today about the share being unavailable to buy on their platform., and also advised the company.

AJ Bell still alow dealing, but HL only allow sells . And if you search for AA4, or click the factsheet icon of your existing holding on the account, it is unavailable. No wonder there are no buys today.

Https://djsaviation.net/emirates-says-boeing-777x-delayed-again/

It is not about who is, has been, or will eventually be right or wrong. I'm pointing out risk, not making predictions.

Nobody knows, nor do we have any sensible means of assessing the different likelihood of probable outcomes. We are all just making our own, perfectly legitimate, assumptions.

I only now and then come on to point out the risk, when I see everyone getting carried away with the cash generation as if no risk was present.

loudspeaker

the amount of the Osun demand is irrelevant. The outcome of the inquiry is what matters. ppl are making perfectly logical points about law, reputation, etc, but remember sovereign countries make and change rules at will.

", they aren't going to sit on all this profit until Douta construction begins". No, they're not. And Segun has alrewady indicated divis are on the cards this year.

But i would remind you that the Osun tax issue is still under Federal review, and our mounting cash pile (in large part due to a gold price of$1000 above original projections} will not have escaped their notice.

Whilst we have no idea what their verdict will be, if I were a federal politician on that panel I might find the concept of windfall taxes an appealing prospect.

I have filtered, but sadly the filter doesn't cut out the replies posted by others to the troll. Until EVERYONE filters the trolls, it doesn't really work.

There is no point engaging with trolls, it's what they thrive on.

DON'T FEED THE TROLLS.

Yep this is either a huge opportunity at 9p, or a falling knife.

No way to know one way or t'other, tho.

Schmidt, i don't disagree.

I think i have stated that I think the mosty likely scenario is a good one. But over the years i have seen plenty of times when political ST imperatives override LT plans and best interests. I would submit we are seeing that played out globally now on a macro scale.

I retain an investment here. I just think some mb dismissing the risks rather too lightly.

" a disproportionate amount of risk baked in."

Well, that's of course subjective. The fact is we have little idea of the quantum of risk, nor of when we will find out. The Cttee could report next week, next month, or next quarter, and it could slap Osun State down, it could award them an insignificant amount, or it could lead to a Federal reassessment of gold mining taxation and aignificant tax grab.

We don't know. Segun doesn't know, any more than he knew the Osun action was coming.

We can all make guesses, but that's all they are.

Enuff, already, of banging the drtum.

We all know the financials are great here, the SP undervalued, the prospects good, etc, etc.....bar the elephant in the room.

We 're all just waiting for the Osun report, and until then it's just whistling in the dark.

Yes, well done, pushing my unfortunate "terrifying " headline down the thread! 60p obvs a bit much. tho. 30p will do me for starters.

Just got around to watching the IMc video, was otherwis engaged yesterday.

Very encouraged by SL's words on Osun State. It wasn't me that asked the "coup belt" question (honest, guv!) very pleased by the reply.

Of course, one has to say that "he would say that, wouldn't he" but the assertions made went beyond that, imo. We have to wait a while longer to see the official report, and it's not nailed on until we do ; but I'm much more comfortable than I have been for some time.

I suspect an element of "neighbourhood risk", will continue to be bit of a damper, but clearing the Osun State debacle should do wonders for the SP.

Https://www.ft.com/content/9a0901f1-070f-43e8-9cd3-6bd6ab4f6c4a

"International mining companies are at the mercy of “terrifying” tactics from military regimes in Africa’s Sahel, whose leaders are using legal disputes, nationalisations and arrests to assert greater control over crucial minerals like gold and uranium"

Cue howls of "Nigeria is not Sahel". Which it isn't, and it's not had a coup, and the rule of law is at least mostly observed. But ....

Of course we're all;; " basing it on a no of factors". In the end it's still a guess.