Member Info for Genghis15

Thanks, willz94.

Harchris, yes, now you say it that's my rather hazy memory too.

"One thing to note as well is that the tax break in Nigeria can also be requested for extension on the extended mine life when that comes in"

Are you sure? It's not clear to me, can you point to a definitive statement of that anywhere?

Apologies if this link has been poted before. An interview with gold perma bull Peter Schiff, As said he's a permabull so mb take it with a pinch of salt, but his arguments mostly make sense. H ethinks US is going into recerssion, probablt depression (i agree) but also that RoW wi;; actually benefit (I don't!).

He probably vastly overstates the possibilioty of a MUCH higher gold price, bt it can't be ruled out in theses mad times that are upon us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIQG01DRxHk

I am no chartist, but this one expecting to see 70p here. Let's hope so, tho mb a tad ambitious. https://x.com/TheSaintCharts/status/1911746191995314619

CAML yields 11.6% in Kazahkstan., tho imv is undervalued at current price. But a 9% yield is far from excessive for a miner in a less than Tier 1 jurisdiction.

My point is not that Thor is fairly valued - I think there's plenty of upside to come - but yield alone is not a good way to measure the valuation.

I do not disagree. Hopefully THX can grow for a while, and imv Segun's expending into Senegal + Cote d'Ivoire is a good ploy to spread the risk across jurisdictions.

I am v positive on THX and continue to hold a large chunk of my pf here, but simply wary of overconfidence in what remains an unpredictable region. Tho predictability seems to be going out the window across the world atm, so perhaps "risk" and "safety" are nowhere near as sure as they used to be anywhere in the world.

" A good few others too highlighting how supposedly high risk this was, repeatedly, again suddenly silent."

"why can’t you just accept that we called this right? We didn’t say it was low risk"

Well, "supposedly" high risk reads to me as saying it wasn't/isn't. I'm not sure when you became the royal "we", but things have certainly gone the way we all hoped. I will remind you that I am also a holder here, and have said that was my central assumption too. I have merely been highlighting the risk that it might not.

It appears we have different understandings of what constitutes "risk". Risk doesn't vanish because nothing's happened yet, nor does it go away in any specific timeframe. Everything goes swimmingly for turkeys right till Xmas.

This is not a turkey, but it is a fat goose ripe for plucking ; but hopefully not yet!

Harchris

Anything in W Africa is "high risk", go ask a fund manager. This one is working out well, so far, and I've increased my stake. I too am well impressed with Segun's abilities not just to deliver commercially, butto navigate the Nigeris environment.

But risk has not evaporated, as some seem to think. " Nigeria ranked 150 out of 175 countries in Transparency International’s 2022 Corruption Perception Index," per US State dept https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-statements/nigeria/

I don't have time today (making the most of spring weather to get out pedallin!) but at some point I will look at the accounts and see tyhe net profit bdownetcand what it might mean for FY25. I calculate the cost of the divi is c. $23.5m pa, which will impact the FY25 bottom line, but debt repayments drop out.

Again, subject to time, I might have a few Qs for Segun about revenue projections.

Anyway, cracking news from THX and more to come. I'll try not to let the Great Orange Baboon spoil my day!

Few will be placing new orders for US weaponry going forward. Talk of the F35 kill switch, true or not, has done for that. EU, CAN, AUS, et will be building up their own capabilities, incl replacing Starlink, GPS, etc. US ho tech exports can kiss gbye to its former allies, nobody trusts them any more.

V tempting to add more at these levels. I am still staying disciplined re position sizes for now, but if it drops again there must be a trading opportunity, at least, on top of my core holding.

$70 is the new $50 for US shale, too, which is likely to drop off significantly this year.

Bendipa is correct that this has been a poor investment in sp terms, not helped by the BoD habit of regular equity raises. But no, it's not a "classic high yiels trap", and should over time deliver a good divi + cap appreciation.

But the BoD habit of regular raises at discounts has merely added scale at the espense of shareholder reurns so far. At the current SP, and thinking we're probably safe from a raise for a year or so, I'm considering buying, but the raises are always a killer.

I know we have to take a view on POG as investors here, but tbh it's a mug's game ; Goldman etc spend a fortune on "research" and get wildly inaccurate forecasts.

All we can be sure of is that a Trump WH ensures instability and unpredictability on a scale not seen since WW2, and gold as a safe haven has never gone out of fashion yet.

More specific to Thor, the only criticism that can be levelled at mgt is that it continues to set timelines it can't keep, a habit it should perhaps examine. Otherwise, it's been impressive, delivering a new mine in a non mining jurisdiction with few glitches, and we now have a cash rich co at a time of record gold prices. Yes, we need to see firmer plans around MLE and Douta, and divi policy would be nice.

The Osun settlement reads well from a governance point of view, tho I would caution that it doesn't mean Nigeria risk has evaporated totally.

But all in all, THX is in a good place at a good time.

I meant to add, I will be think ing hard about picking up some more as wqe run towards the record date.

Seems to me that post tender offer the current value of the Alliance stake plus remaining cash more than backs the current SP of 14.5 with the other stakes in for free. I know the market can be illogical, and trading in this stock is thin, but can't see why the post return SP would fall much below 14p.

I largely agree with both you and balanced, personally I'm relaxed about the issues I mentioned.

I just think they need clarity before the SP marches much past 30p.

Let's not get too carried away.

There are a lot of movimng parts here now, and whilst I do think the current SP should go higher, clarity is needed on several issues.

1. Segilola MLE needs fleshing out with timescales, capex (if any) and future production profile.

2. Douta PFS/DFS with not just capex but how financed, payback period, etc.

3. Effect of the above on cashflows, and headroom for investor returns (ie, divis)

Yes, all these issues are much easier for a cash rich company to deal with, but they are near term uncertainties which may hold back the SP in 2025.

All v positive, and with POG passing $3050 today, numerous updates in the offing, I'm still confident we see 30p soon, barring shocks.

I didn't hear any reference to divis/buybacks tho, mb I missed it? I WAS trying to multi task at the time, was it mentioned?

"The amount of corruption charges directed at the Nigerian government over the past six months or so has been outrageous."

Come off it. 140th in the list out of 180 tells the story.

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2024/index/nga

The satisfactory outcome of the Osun State tax grab just means THX navigated the waters successfully. it does not mean the crocodiles don't exist.