Member Info for Genghis15

For a first pass, you could look upthe Dec 23 RNS.

We'll know in about 9 months, I guess.

Let's see what AW has to say later.

But not only has EST haf ro raise at a low price, it has now lost a drilling season. So, what, 6, 9 months to get the prospect drilled and evaluated, another 6 to get a FO ? By which time we're back to square one needing more cash!

Just credibility shot to pieces here by the promise of a FO and then backing the co into a corner needing to raise at such low levels.

Peoblem is now, whatever AW has to say next week, i for one will not take him seriously. We need a full explanation of how he allowed himself to be strung along by some 3rd party into this situation, what the rest of the BoD was doing to monitor the process, and in particular what the NEDs were doing to look out for us misled holders.

We won't get it I guess, just more promises of how rosy the future is.

Loudspeaker.

Indeed. Well put.

Harchris

I take your point, but there really is zero comparability with windfall taxes, which are nor uncommon in reveloped tax juriscictions, are perfectly legal, are usually trailed in the press well in acvance, and are usually levied on ...wel, windfalls. You are not the first to make this false comparison.

In your own words, " worst case the Nigerian government could shut down the mine" " a worst case is they come looking for larger amounts further down the line".

Quite. I agree they are worst cases, and a total mine shutdown extremely unlikely. I also suspect this is more an issue with the local state govt than with the federal govt, but i don't know how that relationship works in Nigeria, so theres a lot of uncertainty there.

As for "they can’t confiscate the cash in the accounts", well, not as such, no. But there are ways to extract things.

Look, I'm not saying these things are likely. Imho the most ikely scenario is that this little try on has been seen off, and that Segun has developed enough necessary contacts, as well as legal protections, to se of any ideas of future raids. Bt there are other scenarios, up to and including those worst cases, on a sliding scale of (im)probability.

This little episode has highlighted those greater risks in investor minds, is the point I'm rather labouring.

The problem here, as pointed out so irritatingly by M1rob, is that the fleabite tax raid is unnerving. For many, the unknown chance of a bigger, more serious recurrence that could appear out of a clear blue sky makes the investment simply not worth the candle, to mix a metaphor or 2.

The longer it goes without trouble the better, but the fear may never really go away now. Once a state has shown an inclination to use underhand methods (ex parte hearings, disregard of appeal rights, etc) it has lost much credibility.

Like the saying about the bridge builder, he may have built 1000 bridges, but you will never again trust him with your goat.

Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/arqiva-fy24-a-dgi9-update?r=6vzgn&triedRedirect=true

Didn't spot anything in the interims not covered here, but mb someoe else can?

TO73

Thanks. I have to date assumed Segun will be well aware of how to handle these things in Nigeria, but am conscious there will be things I am unaware of.

But I'm also aware that in some countries bad actors allied to govts can steal your whole business. Is the episode closed? Who knows. Wait and see, I guess.

TO73

You speak as if you have some experience in these things?

Speaking as one with no direct experience as such, merely decades of reading and watching the world. But my reading is that whilst the legal processes will have to be robustly engaged with, the real solutions will lie with powerful individuals.

Problem is there is a high stakes game going on here and we don't know the rules, nor the stake. The prize could be N3bn, or something else.

It's a state sponsored shakedown, for sure ; but once we are in the legal process, we are in the hands of local/national politics and things rarely move fast. (See KRQ/Iraq/GKP/). Those attacking the co will feel they have the upper hand now and be in no rush. That's bad enough if only sentiment is affected ; but what next? I fear sealing offices mb only the start, indeed from the links I've seen so far it's not clear what premises the order applies to. If i were raiding the co I would surely want the mining at least threatened, if not halted, to apply maximum pressure.

The list of specious sanctions available to bad actors in govt is endless, from multiple permits to land rights, taxes, visas, infrastructure use, etc. etc.

This is not going to blow over quickly, imho. But I am not expert in Nigeria, so dyor and form your own opinions..

Tbf it is the chairman's role to give finals, so I guess 1/2 year too. There's enough other sticks to beat AW with !

I have to preface this by "unless there is something going on we're not aware of", cos I guess it's possible. But as it stands it looks to me that not only have we been badly misled over a sale of Verkhuba, but also by the failure to take any mitigating actions. Surely there must have been signs that the promised cash was not forthcoming, and a raise could have been got away in July/Aug at a price in the 2s or 3s. A more seasoned operator would surely have advised this, where were the NEDs?

The co is now likely gonna have to raise at 1p or even less, massive dilution on top of the vesting of performance shares in July. As I said, credibility gone, hard to see it regained.

"That is a healthy cash balance" Really?

It's not gonna pay for a pilot plant, just continue studies and drilling. So...what's the pilot plant schedule now?

" Further to the last update on 4 July 2024, while the Board continues discussions with interested parties, including recent new inbound interest, it has in addition determined that the Company can add significantly more value to the asset and attract additional partner and finance interest by advancing the resource, metallurgical test work, mine planning, and approvals, demonstrating its low cost development potential and so intends on progressing the project"

Reads to me "no concrete offers have materialised so we have to go it alone till we've pregressed this much further". Raise incoming to pay for it?

This is AW credibility shot to pieces, after his interviews vitually guaranteeing farm in/sale by end June.

M1Rob

Gloating " I told you so"s " are not a good look. Given the timimg of your posts, I would suspect some sort of shorters' collusion, tho I note you consistently rubbish every share you post on., so mb not.

This seems to me, as others have said, an unsurprising small scale attempt at getting a few $$ and good publicity for a local politician. THX will need to defend robustly to show they are not a soft touch. I am assuming Sugun knows what he is doing in Nigeria and will issue a riposte in due course.

Various links in recent days have given their reasons why PoG is going higher. There certainly seems to be pressure that way, $2670 as I type.

Whilst I have not seen it overtly mentioned, imv there is significant risk of unrest in the Land of the Free should Trump lose the election only 6 weeks from now. Without labouring the politics behind that, it is a scenario tat would surely turbocharge the gold price. For that reason I am very happy with my holding here as a hedge against that, aside from the fundamentals covered adequately by others here.

I'm tempted to increase but have learnt hard lessons going overweight in one stock, so might look for more gold exposure elsewhere. ETFs or major miners would of course be the obvious route, but interested if others here are diversifying in a like manner.

MJWand

Yes you confirm the trolling from M1Rob. but tbh I don't mind his sort of troll. He repeats either facts or semi valid questions which I find it healthy to see raised, tho in this case they are mostly easily discounted. be glad we don't have the sort of illogical, emotional, and disruptive troll who has destroyed another bb I used to post on..

Majwand

Yes, I know. But I think that needs clarifying given the mismatch with previous projections.

Be wary of that four years. Segilola production commemced commercially in Oct 21, on a 5 year mine life. So 2 years left of that, after which (afaik) the tax holiday ends. Segun made the point that production will continue from ore stockpile after that, and of course underground and satellite ops will click in too. But it is not as simple as 4 x 100,000ozs to go. Perhaps we should get more clarity on that once MLE plans are made public.