Member Info for Genghis15

75m shares, = c. 1/3 of current shares in issue. Thought i'd done my DD here, but missed this.

At todays open Mcap of c. £7.6m, SP should reduce to 2.6p, arithmetically.

At least I'm still on the right side, but these early stage explorers always have new ways to kick an investor in the nuts

Sadly good news usually attracts the rocket brigade. Bad enough we already have the marginally unhinged driving out sensible posts. At this stage BBs usually have mostly grounded posters, but this one is in baboon territory already.

The rise in PoG understaes the benefit, of course. With AISC $1100 (2024) to $1200, (2023) the net cash to THX (b4 debt rpyts, explo costs, etc) has gone from roughly $700 to c. $1200. . That's a 70% RISE, against a 35% SP DECLINE.

FCF post explo + debt rpyt will be even higher % rise. Even taking account of mine life extension issues, that's a hell of a disconnect.

Good points.

I too dabbled with copl, but luckily read the runes b4 suffered too much damage, when. from memory, it was in the 20p plus range. I'm sure this is a different beast altogether. the quality partnering alone tells a lot, BHP would not partner w/out a certain level of DD.

I'll certainly be holding here for a good while, whatever the deal on Verkhuba when it emerges there has to be a whole lot more to come here.

Ifiknewidberich9

thanks for correction, I'd just assumed AIM. Main market is another +ve for EST. I think my comments re market recognition of success still stand, tho, smallcaps would have expressed it better than AIM.

Whatever is dampening enthusiasm for EST or AIm generally, it's clearl not a Lab govt. Stocks are up today, as is the £, and this result was known for weeks, mb months. If anything, the trouncing of anti net 0 policies is a +ve for copper producers.

AIM has been like this for3 years at least now, success is slow to get recognised. EST is in the right commodity at the right time, appears well managed, has leveraged qualty partnerships and made significant commercial discoveries, with likely much more to come.

The only downside is jurisdictional risk, but that's relative. It's not the worst place to be.

Why not indeed. Woulda thought it would be well on the radar at BHP.

By the +tivity and SP rise here today. Co planning (if possible) to raise £Ms in debt (remember, ranks b4 s/holders) for wkg cap, further £10sM for capex, and this is good?

No idea of terms (they WILL be punishing) which will certainly involve either liens over property or equity in some form.

Be wary.

Mikey

They may indeed need to raise, tho quite possibly partner/sales offers on Verkhuba and others may pre emt that.

But if a raise is needed, I don't fear it......there should be no shortage of funders, don't think it will be the sort of discounted, warrant heavy stuff that is the norm.

The assets here seem to me too valuable already, with such further potential, that any raise could well be at a premium.

WWK

I too suspect the due date mb a critical one. Even if the accounts are ready, and reasonably audited, I can't see how any auditor can sign them off without qualifying them. Certainly the "going concern" phrase must be an issue, as should be the accusations of 3rd party ownership of assets. I speak as s one who has been subject to these things many times over the years.

One cannot help suspecting that a game of chicken may be plAYED with the auditors here, but one way or another suspension would come as no surprise to me. It might suit the BoD well to have them suspended for a while.

Makes sense to hold firm imv.

If the offer fails then the value here has been highlighted, and is only increasing as we inch nearer to production on various holdings, and just mb even a revival of Sonora.

More likely, perhaps, an improved offerfrom Deterra, or even another party. You just never know in these situations what might be happening behind the scenes. Or not, of course!

Saluc, i have just seen your post.

That's a plausible explanation in some ways , but the trouble is coming on top of all the other issues here I can't take it at face value. Perhaps someone with more local/business knowledge might know if this is affecting others, or not. But also, as someone says on another thread, a prudent CFO (if we had one) or CEO would not leave themselves so reliant on timely receipts from govts in countries where thses things are part of the landscape.

Saluc

Ask yourself why THIS VAT refund is not happening, not why the others did. Something is awry. could it be the possible 3rf party ownership complicating/invalidating things? Is it even due to TGR ? I don't know.

These ae the questions that need answers.

" I personally doubt whether you should be investing in something you don’t understand." Well, so do I. I don't understand at all how any public co can be so disastrously run over such a long period, and that's why I'm no longer invested. It's a drum I've been banging on here for over a year, but it seems none are so deaf as those who don't wish to hear.

"I have huge amounts of sympathy for JOG's shareholders who are seeing the shareprice decline"

Really? i took a look at JOG earlier this year(actually, been familiar for years) on the back of the upside from FO.

It has been perfectly obvious for at least a year that a new govt would be Lab, and that a LOT of pressure is building on any govt to halt new O&G projects. There was ALWAYS a doubt if this would go ahead as envisaged, which is why I steered clear.

I am not trying to be a smart Alec here, but surely anyone investing in JOG in the last year realised the risk that it might not happen?

So I take no pleasure in seeing anyone lose money, having been there myself! But huge sympathy for not reading the politcal runes? No.

If you lost money here, you backed the wrong horse. We've all done it. No amount of railing against govts, parties, Net Zero, or anything else changes that.

Won't need many doing that to move the price back up. Low volumes here mean only a few buyers needed and the price lifts pretty fast.

Amended in latest report

"Gearing and interest

The Company had total liquidity equivalent to £167.7 million at 31 March 2024, comprising £62.8 million held directly at the Company, £46.8 million held at portfolio company level and undrawn facilities at portfolio company level equal to £59.1 million. In aggregate, the Company and its portfolio companies had gross debt equivalent to £694.7 million at 31 March 2024, and therefore net debt of £585.1 million. This resulted in gearing as at 31 March 2024 of 4.5x measured as net debt divided by LTM EBITDA (including Company-level costs) or 38.9% measured as net debt divided by gross asset value (GAV)."

That's a hefty vote of confidence. 800k shares

It may, or may not, be a mirage. It's certainly not"imminent", or wasn't when it was so described back in March.

Point is we don't know, bcos independent scrutiny is lacking, info on cash and cashflow has either been absent or misleading for years, and the finance function is clearly in disarray as evidenced bu last year's missed deadline, suspension, auditor change.......but above all by the abject failure of cashflow forecasting that has led to all this.

There is no Finance Director on the BOD, so the function is clearly not taken seriously enough, and/or cannot find anyone of calibre to risk their reputation/status prof quals there.

So i have no idea if the VAT is real, overestimated, or invented. It is entirley possible, imv, the BoD doesn't either, and/or has made such a mess of its accounting that it isn't submitting robust VAT returns. I simply don't believe a single statement of the boD, it has lost all credibility.

"you guys are missing the bigger picture" LoL, there is NO bigger oicture if you're bankrupt..

No cash, can't raise cash, can't ramp up production. May not even own many of the assets, which 3rd party related cos may hold instead. Can't keep hold of auditors, can't obtain an "imminent" (was it ever real?) VAT refund.

Forget bigger pictures. If you can't keep your head above water, you're never gonna see more than reeds.

Saluc "This is a Madagascan government / economy issue, not a TGR governance issue as you make out"

How deluded can you be? TGR has failed to file a/cs, misled shareholders on its cash position for years. It clearly has a dysfunctional treasury operation which has failed to forecast cashflow. Then on 7 March promises an "imminent" VAT refund which has never arrived.

Yet you believe your statent above, that it's not a governance issue?

Next week's breaking news ; Shishir discovers the world's first tame fairies at its mine in Madagascar, and they're turning graphite into gold.