Member Info for Gallmat

The committee has not even met yet.

I would be surprised if SOC is out before Feb

No idea. Lcm are super professional and wrote back in hours.

My personal dislike is people just making up scenarios and selling them as fact without doing any work at all.

I asked a similar question when I did a zoom call with CEO. Happy to be wrong on this.

Key point is below from contact at LCM. We have ab insurance policy as I read it.

Rather than scaremongering.

I emailed the lady at lcm who was contact for the case. We have an insurance policy as noted below.

So the fuss here is we loose 12m gbp ( maybe) which is valued at cost. And let's ignore the 25m gbp for greenX.

"Generally the court will order the losing side to pay the winning side’s costs however these orders have not yet been made. LCM also has a policy of adverse costs insurance so the insurer will need to pay these costs out when they are ordered"

I saw that post. Let's analyse:

1. Personal insults to ceo. Yup sounds like a clever guy.

2. Very long and biased.

Why not write a long post about how you invest 4m usd in greenx and make x10 on your money. Or any of the other cases where we made 4x+.

This is some sad person who is trying to scare people. If you listen to this drivel it is better to sell.

Facts

1. Our cashflow is good. We have up to 150m usd of liquidity

2. The FV loss here is probably less than greenex gain.

3. Yes the case was large but it was disclosed and I knew about it.

4. They have actively reduced concentration using 3rd party funds. This was a legacy case.

Not sure what more to say. Everyone wants to forget the reason we invest. Very consistent wins with high MOIC and then focus on the losses only.

I do not believe this was invested in using the fund. It is just a legacy investment.

What do you think is the progress on offtakers and feedstock suppliers for uk and germ.

Cotec seem to be openly talking to bit names but nothing seems to have been mentioned on outside of the pond or europe

I believe for gabriel resources it was an unexpected loss. The gov were already conditioning people for the hit.

I am still at a loss as to what argument india are going to present. They have not really flagged any big issue with our behaviour apart from us changing our name.

Maybe the can claim they are entitled to change the law etc, but clearly we have not been treated well by such a change.

Anyway who knows

Why bother If you can recycle.

If someone offered 30m usd for both I would let them have mine and refine go. We could get debt for 90m usd and try and replicate cotec usa and keep a big npv.

The point is to balance abnormal gains vs constrained looses.

If we cannot balance seeing wins of moic of 4x+ ( greenex maybe 10x) and then panic when you loose at say 2x, then really you should not hold the stock

The model is not broken, yes a historic deal was too big, but that was our largest concentration.

This stock is about paying a biased probabilistic game, holders need to have that mindset

Management always said they believed bhukia was 10 to 20m oz.

De grey was sold for 3.3bn usd as they had raised cash. You could have seen our business as being in similar position if we were lucky and not blocked

If we do win even a very Conservative award is surely 500m usd!

I mentioned de grey as a proxy.

Just been taken out for 3.3bn usd in share deal, or 2.8bn usd after deducting cash they held.

Has a 12.7m deposit at 1.3g vs ours at 2g ( excluding credits).

Of course this deposit is better understood than ours. But anyone saying tier 1 deposits are not valuable will see this!.

Let's be honest. News is not great.

But the point is when we win we make say 5x in fund and when we loose we win much less.

We all celebrate 8x and 4x ROIc and when we loose some try to cause a panic.

So the loss here is potentially just the same as the gain on the one case greeenx

To be fair they did disclose this is the bulk of the own balance sheet item. So where is the remaining huge concentrations?, it is mainly within the fund and diversified

As for the whole non recycling any return would be fine. Anything that can underpin uk and other operations is fine. Why we want to operate a mine in such a difficult place is beyond me.

Zero5xo

hitting the nail on the head.

With a 25pct tarrif, potential carbon credits and maybe some tax break I think we can take the npv at spot prices to be a good floor on the project.

You can argue for rising prices but just underpinning the project at current spot prices is good enough

If we believe the rns commentary, the arguments they presented have been refuted multiple times and are sometimes contradictory to their own historical statements.

My only fear is jurisdiction, will they listen to the case. Not a big fear as many weak cases make it to arbitration but it is the last thing that bothers me.

I hope to catch up with ceo early next week.

Agree.Similar story with gabriel resources.

The key for me is.

1. Government indicated will grant license:

No local opposition/resettlement issues/ environmental/ cultural heritage issues raised

2. Proven asset is economic and would be in demand ( often they argue it might not be economic)

3. We have a long case history where they presented weak arguments for not honouring the agreement.

4. We have the state directly benefiting from their actions via a new large revenue stream showing intent.

I am not a lawyer but i do wonder what new argument they are going to present in their defense.

Thx HT

I do like to keep things as polite as possible, everyone can have their views.

Seems like CEO is back in Australia now.

Wobble.

This was never held in a fund, it was majority of the balance sheet held at cost ( noted this long time ago).

I knew worst case we loose this, but if we won the gain would have been massive and no way reflected in our NAV. The play was maybe winning and stock price shooting up 50pct and getting a day like today where we say loose 5 to 10pct.

I still think it was a good trade in hindsight as the risk reward played out in line with expectation